Current Oil Price

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 16 Apr 2013, 14:38

RalphW wrote:Chinese GDP growth down to a dire 7.7%....

That will mean it will take them 9.35 years to double their use of all the resources that they have ever used! That's ages yet....

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 26 Apr 2013, 07:56

biffvernon wrote:Still going down - $87 for WTI

Ooops, just bounced back to $93.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 13 Jun 2013, 12:45

There's a wealth of this type of 'news' item around at present.

Enhanced production techniques were pioneered by the firm Kinder Morgan in the 1990s and then copied by dozens of companies like Apache and Denbury in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The actual results of these businesses made it clear that the assumptions of Peak Oil were simply wrong.

They weren’t sometimes wrong. They were always wrong. They weren’t merely wrong in theory. They were completely wrong in practice.

Here's another.

I have looked at the data, and find that the idea behind peak oil is nonsense.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 13 Jun 2013, 13:08

The world is currently well supplied with $100 oil.

$50 oil is hard to come by, outside OPEC. $25 oil is a distant memory.

Peak oil will happen when the world can no longer afford the price of the marginal barrel.

At present, the world is becoming more oil efficient in GDP terms - Chinese GDP is largely coal powered, and oil inefficient OECD countries are drastically cutting consumption. Once we hit the wall of diminishing returns on efficiency gains we will see the gloal economy once more in lock step with oil production.

Peak oil on the large scale is geological. On the bumpy plateau it is economic.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 18 Jun 2013, 11:13

Another slightly tipsy-sounding piece from NASDAQ.

Indeed, it will be 2030 before America is 100% energy-independent. And it will take another ten years before the U.S. is a major exporter of petroleum. But the time is coming.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 19 Jun 2013, 04:17

I notice that the graph only goes back to 1992 and not 1970 so doesn't show just how much "off peak" present production is. Neither do they say what the difference in price is between cheap Saudi oil and very expensive US shale oil. It's just as well that the Saudis and other "old oil" nations are quite happy to accept higher world prices for their cheap to produce oil. They're laughing all the way to the Swiss bank.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 03 Jul 2013, 08:33

Out ticker is within a gnat's whisker of $100.

Again.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 03 Jul 2013, 09:31

BBC reporting WTI at $101. Nearly caught up with Brent at $105.

I guess it is war premium - trouble down the Nile.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 03 Jul 2013, 09:38

The forecast on the ticker is interesting, at $115. IIRC, this seems higher than at other times when the current price has nudged $100. I wonder, is this a "smart" forecast, taking account of multiple trends and factors, or does it merely extrapolate recent price movements?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 03 Jul 2013, 09:59

Definitely not smart. WTI has been gaining on Brent for several months, as extra transport infrastructure has reduced the glut at the mid-West Cushing terminal where the price point of the oil is formally set.

Historically WTI was sold at a premium to Brent. It is simply returning to normal market price.

The US media always report the WTI price, even if it is economically irrelevant. I suspect it has been rigged down these passed years to avoid embarrasing headlines.

Post by **adam2** » 03 Jul 2013, 10:47

Tarrel wrote:The forecast on the ticker is interesting, at $115. IIRC, this seems higher than at other times when the current price has nudged $100. I wonder, is this a "smart" forecast, taking account of multiple trends and factors, or does it merely extrapolate recent price movements?

I think that the forecast is only very slightly smart.
I suspect that it adds on a roughly fixed percentage to the present price, but that the "present price" is the average over say the last 48 hours, rather than the price at any one moment.

It takes little if any account of recent trends, for example at a time when the price was dropping, the year ahead forcast was still higher than the daily price, despite a falling trend at least in the short term.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 04 Jul 2013, 12:09

When growth isn't enough

Something has got to go – breathable air or rapid economic growth.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 04 Jul 2013, 12:10

Oil prices hit 14 month peak

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 04 Jul 2013, 12:38

$101 for our ticker. I suppose the remarkable thing is that it's been so stable for such a long time.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 04 Jul 2013, 12:51

biffvernon wrote:$101 for our ticker. I suppose the remarkable thing is that it's been so stable for such a long time.

The myth of the US becoming 'energy independent' is becoming...a myth.