Gas alert as demand and prices rise

[vtsnowedin]

Well you better face facts and order an extra ship load a day for next winter and perpare facilities to unload it. And no it won't be cheap.

[kenneal - lagger]

That require a bit of forethought and anyway next winter might not be as bad as last winter!!!

[vtsnowedin]

That require a bit of forethought and anyway next winter might not be as bad as last winter!!!

Or it could be worse.!!

[Tarrel]

Reading the various posts on here about how low the storage got last winter, and how late we have been in starting to fill it up, I imagine just a normal winter will give us problems.

[mikepepler]

Reading the various posts on here about how low the storage got last winter, and how late we have been in starting to fill it up, I imagine just a normal winter will give us problems.

I think it could indeed. There was a blip last week when it turned cold, when no gas was injected into Rough for two days. Every time this happens, whatever the reason, that pushes the time for filling it a bit further away. I've got some graphs built up from National Grid data, I'll try to do a blog in the next few days as an update on progress refilling the stores...

[adam2]

Reading the various posts on here about how low the storage got last winter, and how late we have been in starting to fill it up, I imagine just a normal winter will give us problems.

Yes, a normal winter might be problematic, and a longer or colder than average winter is virtualy certain to be at least somwhat problematic.
There are a number of unknowns that may be summarised as

Near future domestic and industrial demand for gas, to increase due to slight economic recovery and/or population growth ? or will demand decline due to demand destruction and reater efficiency.
The most reasonable estimates tend to assume static demand.

Level of available imports are also somwhat unknown, to be increased by us offering to pay more? or to be restricted by breakdowns, industrial disputes or extreme weather.

Gas demand for electricity production is very variable, to increase due to less coal burning? or reduce due to increased wind turbine capacity ? How well will the aging nukes work ? and of course total electricity demand is unknown. It is unlikely to alter much, but even a 1% increase in electricity demand together a couple of nuclear breakdowns and prolonged calm weather, is a lot of extra gas needed.

[mikepepler]

Update with graphs on the state of our long range gas storage: http://peakoilupdate.blogspot.com/2013/ ... inter.html

[Tarrel]

Crikey, those graphs really put things in focus. It's scary how the storage picture has got progressively worse over the past five years.

[adam2]

Yes.
It should be stressed that cutting off the domestic gas supply is most unlikely.
The first step is to cut off large gas users that are on discounted tarriffs in return for a reduced security of supply, these are usualy energy intensive industries that can burn oil or LPG instead.

The next step would probably be to restrict gas use by non essiential industries, such as the heating of offices and shops.

After that, I would expect that gas burning power stations would be expected to switch to oil if possible*.

Next would probably be rota power cuts in order to restrict the amount of gas used in power stations. A state of emergency would probably be declared in order that the government could "rule by decree" and introduce emergency gas and electricity saving measures.
This was last done in the 1970s. Among the measures introduced were
A ban on electric heating in places of leisure or entertainment such as pubs, restaurants and theaters.
A ban on illuminated advertising signs etc.
A ban on use of electric lights if daylight suffices (except in the home)
Prohibiting the lighting of empty rooms by electricity

Voluntary measures included asking people not to use Christmas lights and restricting street lighting.

Cutting off the domestic gas supply would be a very last resort if the above failed to limit demand enough.
I doubt that things will get that bad just yet.

*most gas burning power plants can burn light oil in an emergency but planning permision often restricts this, the declaration of a state of emergency allows such restrictions to be ignored. The gas turbines are normally optimised for natural gas burning and prolonged oil burning might breach the warrenty. In many cases obtaining oil will be problematic as gas burning power stations are not normally served by oil pipelines or railway lines.

[RenewableCandy]

A ban on electric heating in places of leisure or entertainment such as pubs, restaurants and theaters.
A ban on illuminated advertising signs etc.
A ban on use of electric lights if daylight suffices (except in the home)
Prohibiting the lighting of empty rooms by electricity

All eminently sensible iyam.

[adam2]

Still not very good.
Long range storage still filling, but medium range has only filled very slightly and was drawn on recently rather than replenished.

This to me suggests a lack of supply. The long range storage cant be filled any quicker, but if supplies were ample then I would expect that the medium range storage would be filling at reasonable rate as well as the long range.

More imports could probably be attracted, but at what price? remembering that present prices are a record for the time of year.

[Little John]

Still not very good.
Long range storage still filling, but medium range has only filled very slightly and was drawn on recently rather than replenished.

This to me suggests a lack of supply. The long range storage cant be filled any quicker, but if supplies were ample then I would expect that the medium range storage would be filling at reasonable rate as well as the long range.

More imports could probably be attracted, but at what price? remembering that present prices are a record for the time of year.

How come they fill the long term, medium term and short term storage independently? Surely, they fill the short term storage up first? When/if short term storage is full they fill up medium term storage and when that is full, they fill up long term storage? In other words, what's the point of filling up long term storage and leaving short term storage too low, meaning that at some point they are going to have to pull some off the long term storage to fill the gap in short term storage? Why didn't they put it where it was needed immediately in the first place?

Or, to look at it from the other side of the storage equation, why isn't is all just called "storage" and they put it in at one end (long term storage) and it is allowed to immediately flow down to the other end of the system (short term storage). If there is a problem with simply not enough gas coming in at one end, then it is not storage that needs managing, it is either supply or consumption.

Or, is there something about the physical nature of gas that I haven’t accounted for that requires the storage to be managed in a particular way?

[Tarrel]

I think I remember reading, either in this thread or elsewhere, that the short term storage is basically at Milford Haven, where the tankers come in, whereas the long term storage is in depleted reservoirs under the North Sea? If so, I guess short term storage gets filled when a tanker comes in.

I may, of course, have this totally wrong.

[Little John]

I think I remember reading, either in this thread or elsewhere, that the short term storage is basically at Milford Haven, where the tankers come in, whereas the long term storage is in depleted reservoirs under the North Sea? If so, I guess short term storage gets filled when a tanker comes in.

I may, of course, have this totally wrong.

If that's right, then the system should just be replenished at the undersea reservoirs shouldn’t it?. The short-term, onshore storage supplied by the tankers will then simply take care of itself and will prove to be sufficient or insufficient based on what is available from the undersea reservoirs. What I am failing to understand is how the short term storage can rise or fall independently of what is happening at the long term storage end of the system.

[adam2]

Still not very good.
Long range storage still filling, but medium range has only filled very slightly and was drawn on recently rather than replenished.

This to me suggests a lack of supply. The long range storage cant be filled any quicker, but if supplies were ample then I would expect that the medium range storage would be filling at reasonable rate as well as the long range.

More imports could probably be attracted, but at what price? remembering that present prices are a record for the time of year.

How come they fill the long term, medium term and short term storage independently? Surely, they fill the short term storage up first? When/if short term storage is full they fill up medium term storage and when that is full, they fill up long term storage? In other words, what's the point of filling up long term storage and leaving short term storage too low, meaning that at some point they are going to have to pull some off the long term storage to fill the gap in short term storage? Why didn't they put it where it was needed immediately in the first place?

Or, to look at it from the other side of the storage equation, why isn't is all just called "storage" and they put it in at one end (long term storage) and it is allowed to immediately flow down to the other end of the system (short term storage). If there is a problem with simply not enough gas coming in at one end, then it is not storage that needs managing, it is either supply or consumption.

Or, is there something about the physical nature of gas that I haven’t accounted for that requires the storage to be managed in a particular way?

The long term storage can only be filled at a certain rate, without investing a great deal of money, this rate cant be increased but is fixed.

Under present circumstances, the long range storage cant be completly filled before next winter.
It therefore makes sense under present circumstances, to fill the long range storage at the maximum possible rate, for every hour of every day, until winter.Every little helps, and to start next winter with 78% would be better than to start with 75%.
Even if this means withdrawing gas from medium range storage in order to fill the long range store.
Any day in which the long range store is not filled, CAN NOT be made up for in future, it is a day of filling lost forever.
Any day of not filling the medium range store, could in theory be made up by faster filling in future, the limit at present is not the rate of filling but the availability of gas. The fact that the medium range store is not being filled much at present is grounds for concern.