A interesting window into the strategic thinking at the top levels of the Pentagon and the US ruling class.A paper published in mid-April by the Washington-based think tank, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), is a chilling indication of the discussions underway and the preparations being made within the US defence establishment for nuclear war.
CSIS strategic analyst Anthony Cordesman is dismissive of nuclear arms control treaties and negotiations, declaring that developing arms races in Asia and the Middle East “demand a strategy that looks beyond arms control and considers a much grimmer future.”
Cordesman leaves no doubt as to what that future might be. The title of his paper, “Red Lines, Deadlines, and Thinking the Unthinkable: India, Pakistan, Iran, North Korea and China”, is a direct reference to the Cold War strategist Herman Kahn who coldly calculated a strategy for fighting and “winning” a nuclear war.
As Cordesman notes: “Early in the thermonuclear age, Herman Kahn warned the world that it had to ‘think about the unthinkable’: The consequences of an actual nuclear war, and consider which side—if any—might ‘win’.” He continued: “The end of the Cold War seemed to put an end to the need for such thinking, but recent developments in North Korea and Iran make it all too clear that there is still a need for such horrifying yet ‘realist’ analysis.”
In his book “On Thermonuclear War” written in 1960, Kahn argued that life would go on after a devastating nuclear exchange, whether hundreds of millions died or only a few major cities were destroyed. It was necessary, he claimed, for Americans to accept the consequences, no matter how horrifying, because without the willingness to push the button, nuclear war preparations were just an elaborate bluff.
The CSIS paper has a particular significance. Cordesman is well-connected within American defence, intelligence and foreign policy circles, having served at senior levels in the State Department, the Defence Department and acted as consultant on a range of military issues including as part of the Strategic Assessment Group in 2009 that helped devise Obama’s strategy for the AfPak war.
Cordesman devotes the bulk of his paper to the prospects of a nuclear war involving India/Pakistan, Iran and North Korea, leaving China to last. In each case the paper provides a detailed assessment of the nuclear capabilities of the rival states and assesses the strategic consequences of a nuclear conflict in brutally “realist” terms.
On South Asia, the paper warns that the arms build-up could lead to nuclear war, as both India and Pakistan have “a history of overreaction, nationalism, and failure to demonstrate stability and restraint in arms control.” It expresses concern that neither “has really thought out the consequences of a nuclear exchange beyond the ‘Duke Nukem’ school of planning: who can kill more of the enemy.”
But Cordesman’s ghoulish conclusion is that a South Asian nuclear war—a conflict that would bring death and suffering to tens if not hundreds of millions—would not affect the US and its allies. “The good news, from a ruthlessly ‘realist’ viewpoint,” he states, “is that such a human tragedy does not necessarily have serious grand strategic consequences for other states, and might well have benefits... Some fallout perhaps, but not that much in terms of serious radiation exposure measured in rads. The loss of India and Pakistan might create some short term economic issues for importers of goods and services. However, the net effect would shift benefits to other suppliers without any clear problems in substitutions or costs.”
Reading between the lines, it seems obvious to me that a orchestrated India-Pakistani nuclear war might be encouraged in the future by the US as a means of population reduction on a global level.
I doubt that any future US administration would seriously consider nuclear war against China has the national and indeed personal consequences would be terrible. Even the ruling class would probably die in such a exchange.
