Bank Watch ...

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 24 Mar 2013, 20:35

stevecook172001 wrote:ruining forever Cyprus' biggest industry.

And there we have it. Cyprus's biggest industry (nor anywhere else's) should not be the financial sector. They should have stuck to growing the best olives. Finance should be a service industry, serving the real workers.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 24 Mar 2013, 20:55

Tarrel wrote:I'd add that Cyprus's banks have also been offering unsustainably high interest rates to depositors, which has been a self-destructive policy.

I imagine that some of the impetus for the "raid on deposits" idea did come from the Euro Group. There have been several comments passed in the media over the last few days around the idea that it's payback-time for the depositors who have been enjoying these unrealistically high rates.

Yes, but the specific plan to raid the low-end depositors so much instead of top loading it on the high-end depositors probably comes from the Cypriot authorities themselves on the basis that they did not want to drive away those high-end depositors. I can't see any particular reason why the EU would give a toss which specific deposits the money came from. The Cypriot authorities' big mistake was in underestimating the level of civil unrest that taking the money from the low-end deposits would arouse.

Post by **adam2** » 25 Mar 2013, 06:13

Looks like a deal has been done.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21916102

Large losses for the biggest savers in the worst bank.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 25 Mar 2013, 07:06

adam2 wrote:Looks like a deal has been done.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21916102

Large losses for the biggest savers in the worst bank.

It's a fudge.

In effect, the 100k guarantee has been reaffirmed. Though, the EU would never, of course, admit that this is what they have done since they have persisted in the lie that the guarantee was never broken in the first place.

The above must mean, all other things being equal, that those with deposits over 100k would stand to lose the majority of their deposits in order for the 5 billion numbers to add up.

However, all that has been publicly stated by Cyprus and Legard et al is that anyone with deposits over 100k will face "substantial" losses. That statement is obfuscatory bullshit. They will have already worked out exactly what those losses are going to be and so could have come straight out with the numbers. Which begs the question as to why they have not done so.

I think the answer can only be one of two or a combination of them.

Either they are waiting to see how big a shit-fit the Russians have before actually trying to take the money.

Or

They have no intention of inflicting "substantial" losses on depositors with over 100k but they needed to sound tough in order to legitimise the fact that the EU has basically blinked first and is handing over the 10 billion without Cyprus having to really find the other 5 billion. However, they couldn't come straight out and say that because of domestic political considerations in Germany and elsewhere where their populations are sick of handing money over to southern basket-case economies. Thus, they have to at least make it look like someone other than their own electorates is going to suffer.

In other words, someone has to pay the 5 billion but I don't think it's going to be the Russians or the Cypriots. Or, at least not, substantially. Instead, it's going to be the Troika member states' taxpayers.

It would seem that EU-Armageddon has been put off yet again via the judicious application of smoke and mirrors. You've got to hand it the buggers.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 25 Mar 2013, 07:29

Eyup, I've just read some more of that article and it appears that a key element of the deposit tax, demanded by the IMF, is that it not require a parliamentary vote.

F--k me....

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 25 Mar 2013, 08:02

adam2 wrote:Looks like a deal has been done.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21916102

Large losses for the biggest savers in the worst bank.

That's a "rescue"???

Doesn't look good for ordinary Cypriots.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 25 Mar 2013, 08:04

stevecook172001 wrote:
It would seem that EU-Armageddon has been put off yet again via the judicious application of smoke and mirrors. You've got to hand it the buggers.

The little fish (Greece, Cyprus) are being sacrificed to keep the big fish (Spain, Italy) going for a bit longer. That is all.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 28 Mar 2013, 23:10

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39630.html

As always a interesting article from Nadeem at Market Oracle.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 29 Mar 2013, 00:21

Lord Beria3 wrote:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39630.html

As always a interesting article from Nadeem at Market Oracle.

Yep. Cyprus just leapfrogged Greece at the head of the great race to euro-oblivion...

Post by **adam2** » 12 Apr 2013, 09:09

Still not looking very good for Cyprus and Cypriot banks.
It is now said that Cyprus needs a significantly larger bailout that was first suggested.
A second bank run would not suprise me as the populace might fear another confiscation or other charge, fee, or levy.

Significant civil disorder remains a distinct possibility.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Apr 2013, 11:16

The EU has just pocketed three quarters of Cyprus' gold reserves.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 12 Apr 2013, 11:19

That's ok, it was only gathering dust.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 12 Apr 2013, 18:24

Gavin Hewitt re: Cyprus bailout:

Cyprus: Bailed out or broken

Article continues ...

Privately European officials are very anxious.

They are uncertain where growth will emerge from.

Those doubts will be reflected in a softening of targets, in an easing of terms that does not quite add up to a U-turn, but signals their doubts that the policy to save the eurozone is working.

Is it time to let them in on our secret?

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 14 Apr 2013, 14:10

Aurora wrote:Is it time to let them in on our secret?

Be our guest, Aurora. Be sure to let us know how they respond to you.

the_lyniezian · Post by **the_lyniezian** » 15 Apr 2013, 00:59

biffvernon wrote:
stevecook172001 wrote:ruining forever Cyprus' biggest industry.
And there we have it. Cyprus's biggest industry (nor anywhere else's) should not be the financial sector. They should have stuck to growing the best olives. Finance should be a service industry, serving the real workers.

If only...