Gas alert as demand and prices rise

[kenneal - lagger]

The Jet Stream Forecast shows the jet stream to the south of us until next Sunday and it doesn't move north of the UK until two weeks on Tuesday, the 23rd April. At that far out that's pretty much a guess. Could be cold for a while yet.

[mikepepler]

The Jet Stream Forecast shows the jet stream to the south of us until next Sunday and it doesn't move north of the UK until two weeks on Tuesday, the 23rd April. At that far out that's pretty much a guess. Could be cold for a while yet.

Well that won't help us refill the gas storage...

And with the way Arctic sea ice is going, I wouldn't rely on the jet stream to do anything predictable ever again... http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[adam2]

I see no immediate crisis, but remain doubtful about the LRS being filled for next winter.
Slightly warmer weather is already here which should mean that demand can be substantialy met from imports and north sea production without any recourse to the very limited remaining storage.

If the jet stream forcast is accurate then it wont be warm enough for significant storage injection for at least 2 weeks.
Then allow for summer maintenance shutdowns, the possibility of a Norwegian industrial dispute, and the likelyhood of something breaking in the next few months, and it does not look good for next winter.

[mikepepler]

I agree - we've scraped through this winter, and next winter could really be a problem. Mild weather is the only easy way out!

Nice little screen grab here, from the Prevailing View page over the weekend:


UK Rough gas storage goes negative by mikepepler, on Flickr

[adam2]

And remember that gas consumption next winter is likely to be greater than this winter due to the closure of several coal burning power stations and the consequent increased gas burn for power generation.

Even with average weather next winter supplies could be short, in the event of severe weather then I forsee significant problems.

More wind turbines should be in use by next winter which would reduce gas consumption, but probably not by enough to offset the closure of coal plants.
Tight electrical generating capacity next winter may require significant use of OCGT plant for generating electricity.
This is normally considered to be a form of emergency reserve and is optimised for low capital cost, reliability, and quick starting, and not for fuel efficiency. After all who cares about the fuel efficiency of equipment that might only run for a few hours a year ?
Regular use of such equipment would significantly drive up gas consumption and electricity prices.
Most OCGT power plants can also burn light oil, but only limited stocks are held and often with no provision for quickly obtaining more.

Apart from the risks of shortage, I forsee substantialy higher gas prices next winter. Looks like we will be paying high prices all summer to fill the storage.
Presumably other European nations have also depleted stores and will be competing with us for supplies to refill them.

[adam2]

Not out of the woods yet.
Forecast gas supply today is significantly below forecast consumption, and actual supply is slightly below forecast supply.

Imports via pipeline reduced, not certain if this a planned maintenance shutdown? probably in view of the low forcast supply.

I would expect more withdrawals today despite the milder weather, and that certainly can not carry on for long, total storage is now down to about 2%

[mikepepler]

And still it goes on...

Storage update out today from http://marketinformation.natgrid.co.uk/ ... gView.aspx is as follows:

UK gas storage 13-4-2013 by mikepepler, on Flickr

So we are still pushing the storage levels lower and lower. LNG stocks were up, but for some reason they don't seem to be using it very much, so in the absence of imports the storage is being drawn on, when it should be being refilled by. At this rate we really are going to have a problem next winter...

[adam2]

It would seem that any serious problem this winter is now most unlikely, the storage is now being filled and the mild weather should permit of continued filling.
The last few days have been windy and the impressive amount of electricity generated from wind has noticeably reduced the gas burnt for power generation. This wont carry on of course but even in the short term it is a bit more gas available for storage injection.

Doubts remain about next winter as there may not be time to fully fill the long term store for next winter, especialy if we have an early and cold winter.

North Sea production is likely to be less next year, and demand greater.

[biffvernon]

Yes, currently wind is producing between 4 and 5 GW. For comparison, our biggest coal power station, Drax, is rated at 3.96GW.

[woodburner]

Is wind actually producing, or is 5GW just the quoted capacity?

[biffvernon]

Actually producing. There's a live feed here http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/index.php

It's been over 4GW all day.

[woodburner]

So this week we can boil kettles, run computers, run electric fires etc, and it's warm outside. Last week when it was bitterly cold we would have been lucky to light a light bulb. Not good is it?

[mikepepler]

Finally the gas stores are going in the direction they would ideally have been a month ago... Rough is back above 'zero', and had 307GWh added yesterday, and MRS is being refilled too. Of course, we've been exporting through the interconnector as well!

It'll be a long wait over the summer to see if they can get Rough full in time... As Adam said, if winter 2013/14 starts early, that won't be very helpful! Let's hope the pipelines and LNG keep flowing uninterrupted for the next 6 months...

[biffvernon]

Not good is it?

It would be better if we had far more wind-farms, but remember the discussion we had during the coldest spell when the pump on the Zeebrugge-Bacton interconnector failed last month? That was when wind stopped the lights going out, or at least avoided interruptable supply contracts being interrupted.

[woodburner]

You might think so, but when you look at the yearly wind graph it's teetering along with an average of less than 2GW. Less than 1 power station. We'll have the whole country covered in the things before they become useful.