Gas alert as demand and prices rise

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 29 Mar 2013, 15:16

vtsnowedin wrote:Imagine telling the workers at a factory that they have the day off unpaid because it's calm today.

As I understand it there are large energy users here who are taken off when there's not enough gas (or electricity): the quid pro quo is that they're on a lower tariff to start with.

And of course there are plenty of industries (grain-farming and fishing spring to mind) where work is impossible under the wrong weather conditions, but they just have to deal with the slack days.

Post by **clv101** » 29 Mar 2013, 16:08

vtsnowedin wrote:Imagine telling the workers at a factory that they have the day off unpaid because it's calm today.

This is a good exercise. It's very likely we'll soon have to abandon the 20th C. supply model, which isn't really a supply model at all it's just 'match demand'. This is hopelessly unbalanced and once the one-time hit of fossil fuels is in serious decline we'll have to return to a more balanced way of running the world - in sync with the environment around us.

We won't be able to have anything we want, whenever we want it (like the electricity grid today).

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 02 Apr 2013, 10:28

clv101 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Imagine telling the workers at a factory that they have the day off unpaid because it's calm today.
This is a good exercise.

Indeed. It's rather a good idea - those are the days you should be at home in the garden. Win win.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 02 Apr 2013, 11:47

Long range storage now effectively empty.

LNG storage up a bit. Demand has dropped a couple of notches and
the cold weather is set to break in about a week.

Price has dropped back to 80p/therm. I suspect this will be the new normal.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 02 Apr 2013, 14:11

emordnilap wrote:
clv101 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Imagine telling the workers at a factory that they have the day off unpaid because it's calm today.
This is a good exercise.
Indeed. It's rather a good idea - those are the days you should be at home in the garden. Win win.

If everybody had to rely on intermittent wind power then it would become a matter of who managed it best, but during the transition somebody will still have a coal or nuclear plant that chugs away every day and they will be able to out produce those that are idled by calm days. Those that switch to all wind power first will starve before the last coal plant is abandoned.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 03 Apr 2013, 08:13

vtsnowedin wrote:Those that switch to all wind power first will starve

Why should anyone switch to 'all wind power'? That would be bonkers.

After energy saving measures, 30% wind power would be quite sensible along with solar pv, solar thermal, wave, tide, tidal stream, hydro, geothermal, pumped storage, batteries of various ilks, Uncle Tom Cobley, his dog....

Post by **adam2** » 03 Apr 2013, 08:19

biffvernon wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Those that switch to all wind power first will starve
Why should anyone switch to 'all wind power'? That would be bonkers.

After energy saving measures, 30% wind power would be quite sensible along with solar pv, solar thermal, wave, tide, tidal stream, hydro, geothermal, pumped storage, batteries of various ilks, Uncle Tom Cobley, his dog....

Yes, and also a little gas or oil burning at times of low wind and high demand. Neither fuel is likely to vanish, but they are rapidly becoming too expensive for base load power generation.

Post by **mikepepler** » 03 Apr 2013, 10:23

Looks like there are more outages today. The National Grid websites seem to be a bit overloaded, so I've got some screengrabs here:
http://peakoilupdate.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... blems.html

Problems on Bacton IC, lower flows at Langeled and St Fergus, gas being drawn out of MRS, LRS, LNG.

Post by **mikepepler** » 03 Apr 2013, 16:13

Storage levels just updated, figures for 6am today (which was before imports dropped off) were:
- Short 45 GWh (4 mcm)
- Medium 2,730 GWh (237 mcm)
- Long 342 GWh (30 mcm)
- LNG 7,457 GWh (648 mcm)

At tomorrow's 4pm update, I expect we'll see a big drop in Long, and a moderate drop in Medium storage. LNG will have dropped too. Thankfully it's meant to get a *bit* warmer at the weekend, so the LNG store should last us now, but I can easily imagine us getting quite late in April before starting to refill storage.

Bear in mind that to refill the Long Range storage from empty takes nearly 180 days, assuming maximum injection with no interruptions... next winter will be the most 'interesting' yet, I fear.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 03 Apr 2013, 16:47

Mike, what sort of quantity of gas does the UK use on days like today (i.e. cold, but not desperately so)?

I have a "feel" for the lecky figures, but not the gas ones.

Post by **mikepepler** » 03 Apr 2013, 16:53

RenewableCandy wrote:Mike, what sort of quantity of gas does the UK use on days like today (i.e. cold, but not desperately so)?

I have a "feel" for the lecky figures, but not the gas ones.

Predicted demand today is about 317mcm. Seasonal normal for today would be 265mcm, so the weather's having a big impact!

Post by **mikepepler** » 03 Apr 2013, 17:26

Imports just restarted from Bacton IC, but at a low level so far: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/Data/efd/ezgraph.htm

Post by **mikepepler** » 04 Apr 2013, 07:55

Gas drawn out of long and medium storage all night: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/Data/efd/ezgraph.htm

There can't be much left in Rough now - I wonder what happens when it gets to 'zero' - is it a notional level, and if so can they keep pumping for a bit after zero?

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 04 Apr 2013, 10:42

RenewableCandy wrote:Mike, what sort of quantity of gas does the UK use on days like today (i.e. cold, but not desperately so)?

At the time you posted this RC, I was sitting outside, reading a book and having a break from chores, in glorious sunshine but with an icy breeze taking the edge off it.

There was no heating required for the house because (a) we kept warm outside working (not hard though) and (b) our small investment in a solar lean-to means we collect some of the sun's heat in the house.

Subsequently, we only needed a small fire (roughly one broken up pallet) during the evening and we had shedloads of solar-heated water.

Such situations don't suit everyone but it goes to show that simple ideas can easily reduce fossil energy demand. Imagine if every house - where it's feasible - installed passive devices that 'collected' solar energy. Nah, can't be done squire!

Post by **mikepepler** » 04 Apr 2013, 11:23

mikepepler wrote:There can't be much left in Rough now - I wonder what happens when it gets to 'zero' - is it a notional level, and if so can they keep pumping for a bit after zero?

Found the answer:

http://www.centrica.com/files/presentat ... slides.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_ga ... efinitions

'Cushion' or 'base' gas is left in the reservoir to maintain pressure, but in times of need some of it can be extracted, though presumably the flow rate will start to drop.