Election 2015

[clv101]

The next election is likely to take place on 7th May 2015.

Now that we know the boundaries aren't going to change we should be able to make an educated guess at what's going to happen. It's likely politicians of all colours are less popular now than they were in 2010. But how have relative popularities changed?

I expect the LibDems to lose share over all, with more of their votes going to Labour, nationalists, independents or just abstaining compared to going to the Conservatives. It could be that the coalition will have damaged the LibDems and moved their support to anywhere but their coalition partner!

The Conservatives, in an attempt to claim the centre ground have alienated a large chunk, even the majority (see same sex marriage vote) of their supporters. This wouldn't be much of a problem except UKIP have offered a home to these disaffected Conservatives and are likely to split the vote. This split is interesting as UKIP are likely to take a significant percentage of the vote in many seats - but are unlikely to win more than one so are a real threat to Conservative MPs and but not a potential coalition partner.

I expect the Conservatives and LibDem to lose seats in 2015. Labour are likely to win the majority, not because they have done anything special but mainly because the Conservative vote will be split and collation will have damaged LibDem support.

It's clear Cameron's attempt to pacify the right by promising a EU referendum in the next term (if he's in power and if he can't get enough concessions from Europe) has failed. It'll be interesting to see what he attempts next.

[Blue Peter]

It's clear Cameron's attempt to pacify the right by promising a EU referendum in the next term (if he's in power and if he can't get enough concessions from Europe) has failed. It'll be interesting to see what he attempts next.

Are there any UKIP policies which can be easily nicked? Tightening up immigration, perhaps?

Ideally Osborne would like to give away some money in the run up. Given that we're likely to be even more in the red, this is going to depend upon a lot more printing. How will the "independence" of the BoE fare against the need for an extra large dollop of electronic ink. Will they be able to rationalize it? or will it look too much like working for the Tories?


Peter.

[kenneal - lagger]

We can't really tighten up on immigration without leaving the EU because that is where a significant proportion comes from, or will when the Romanians start arriving. Other UKIP policies, such as cutting Green Taxes, might be clutched at in desperation but could again alienate support from the left of the party.

[Little John]

The kind of policies that would get someone like me to get off my arse and bother voting would be such things as:

Reform/tightening of immigration policy alongside a concomitant family planning policy for population reduction. None of the major parties are offering this because of treaty obligations to the EU and also because of the need to keep feeding the economy with a cheap labour force which, in turn, is based on our current unsustainable economic model of perpetual growth, which is itself based on our corrupt monetary system.

Reform of the tax system from non-progressive to progressive (i.e. based on income, not expenditure, and also non-linearly scaled according to size of income) in order to significantly reduce the income gap between the richest and poorest. None of the major parties are offering this because they are basically in the service of those who would suffer the most from such a reform.

Nationalisation of all strategically important industries and concomitant development of a long-term strategic plan for becoming energy and food independent. None of the major parties are offering the above because they are basically in the service of those who would suffer the most from such a reform or who would gain nothing from it.

Reform of the benefits system such that every one is guaranteed a job that pays sufficient to their needs to live a basic but decent life. The capacity to pay for this will be tied to a number of other items in the list. The first major strategic project this army of workers could be set to would be to build cheap but decent social house for themselves to live in. None of the major parties are offering the above because to do so would undermine the pressure on workers to toe the line for fear of being made unemployed and this would, in turn, hurt those who such parties really represent.

Reform of banking and our monetary system in order to allow us to adopt a different economic model from the currently utterly unsustainable and unjust one. As ever, none of the major parties are offering the above for all of the obvious reasons.

If it looked even remotely possible that only some of the above polices were being offered, if only in part, I might be tempted to vote.

As it is, I won't be voting in 2015.

[PS_RalphW]

We do appear to be facing a choice of 4 neoconservative parties at the next election. They are all wedded to the economic growth/debt based money supply/ keep the banks happy at all costs model of running the country. None of them has a coherent plan on anything worth worrying about.

The greens are the only ones close to rational, but are far too fluffy to cope with the reality of the predicaments we face.

In practice both the Libs and Cons will lose share to UKIP, but probably not enough for UKIP to win many seats. The libs will probably do better relative to the Cons, but lose some seats to labour, who may or may not gain enough for a clear win. Far too many people realise that the seeds of our current depression were set when Brown was chancellor. (Not that a Tory chancellor would have done any different).

We could end up with a Lib /Lab coalition. The previous one is now too dim in most political memories, and Tony Blair (a major liability) has completely disappeared off the domestic radar. Millions may have hated him over Iraq, but it's the economy stupid.

[ujoni08]

Well said, Steve.

[UndercoverElephant]

The next election is likely to take place on 7th May 2015.

Now that we know the boundaries aren't going to change we should be able to make an educated guess at what's going to happen. It's likely politicians of all colours are less popular now than they were in 2010. But how have relative popularities changed?

I expect the LibDems to lose share over all, with more of their votes going to Labour, nationalists, independents or just abstaining compared to going to the Conservatives. It could be that the coalition will have damaged the LibDems and moved their support to anywhere but their coalition partner!

The Conservatives, in an attempt to claim the centre ground have alienated a large chunk, even the majority (see same sex marriage vote) of their supporters. This wouldn't be much of a problem except UKIP have offered a home to these disaffected Conservatives and are likely to split the vote. This split is interesting as UKIP are likely to take a significant percentage of the vote in many seats - but are unlikely to win more than one so are a real threat to Conservative MPs and but not a potential coalition partner.

I expect the Conservatives and LibDem to lose seats in 2015. Labour are likely to win the majority, not because they have done anything special but mainly because the Conservative vote will be split and collation will have damaged LibDem support.

It's clear Cameron's attempt to pacify the right by promising a EU referendum in the next term (if he's in power and if he can't get enough concessions from Europe) has failed. It'll be interesting to see what he attempts next.

I agree. I think Labour will probably win the next election, or at least be the largest party. The latter situation would set up the possibility of the libdems remaining in coalition government, but with Labour instead of the Tories. And they will surely be aware going into the election that this is a likely outcome, which sets up some interesting problems for them between now and then, and when it comes to deciding on a manifesto.

[biffvernon]

It's all just a game of parse the parcel.

[marknorthfield]

What will Cameron try next?

Well, obviously he will mention his promised EU referendum at every available opportunity, but it's not the only possible line of attack. UKIP's glaring achilles heel is their ludicrous 'human driven climate change is a hoax' position. Expect them to be berated vigorously for this prior to the next general election, especially with the latest IPCC report due. Even with the anti-science wing in his own ranks to consider, I'm sure Cameron and other Conservatives will use this.

The other great weakness of UKIP is the inevitable effect of their speedy rise to prominence: a lack of wide-ranging policy honed by scrutiny over time. This will be exposed more ruthlessly if they are deemed to be more of a threat.

UKIP had the means and motivation to throw everything they could at this one seat, a highly publicised contest in the national spotlight for weeks, ripe for a protest vote. Will they be able to repeat that level of attack in constituencies all over the country in 2015? Seems very unlikely. They're no doubt much better funded than a left-wing party like the Greens and can throw-up mountains of glossy leaflets accordingly, but they just don't have the roots in local politics to gain trust in a general election. They'll do well in the Euros, of course.

For comparison, Caroline Lucas being elected in Brighton in 2010 didn't just magically happen, it came about after a steady Green Party rise in local politics to become official opposition on the borough council, combined with considerable effort by party activists in that one constituency for the election. Are UKIP prominent on a borough council anywhere? Nope.

This is not to invalidate the proposition of a split UKIP/Conservative vote on the right, leading to a slight Labour victory by default rather than enthusiasm. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems come up with a mini-manifesto detailing what their priorities would be in coalition with Labour, not wanting to get their fingers burned twice.

[RenewableCandy]

"Climate change is a hoax" may be ludicrous but unfortunately if you go round telling people what they want to hear for long enough, they start to believe it.

Which means we might be subject to an election in which the weather has more than its usua effects...

[UndercoverElephant]

What will Cameron try next?

Well, obviously he will mention his promised EU referendum at every available opportunity, but it's not the only possible line of attack. UKIP's glaring achilles heel is their ludicrous 'human driven climate change is a hoax' position. Expect them to be berated vigorously for this prior to the next general election, especially with the latest IPCC report due. Even with the anti-science wing in his own ranks to consider, I'm sure Cameron and other Conservatives will use this.

The other great weakness of UKIP is the inevitable effect of their speedy rise to prominence: a lack of wide-ranging policy honed by scrutiny over time. This will be exposed more ruthlessly if they are deemed to be more of a threat.

UKIP had the means and motivation to throw everything they could at this one seat, a highly publicised contest in the national spotlight for weeks, ripe for a protest vote. Will they be able to repeat that level of attack in constituencies all over the country in 2015? Seems very unlikely. They're no doubt much better funded than a left-wing party like the Greens and can throw-up mountains of glossy leaflets accordingly, but they just don't have the roots in local politics to gain trust in a general election. They'll do well in the Euros, of course.

For comparison, Caroline Lucas being elected in Brighton in 2010 didn't just magically happen, it came about after a steady Green Party rise in local politics to become official opposition on the borough council, combined with considerable effort by party activists in that one constituency for the election. Are UKIP prominent on a borough council anywhere? Nope.

This is not to invalidate the proposition of a split UKIP/Conservative vote on the right, leading to a slight Labour victory by default rather than enthusiasm. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems come up with a mini-manifesto detailing what their priorities would be in coalition with Labour, not wanting to get their fingers burned twice.

Let's face it, UKIP's biggest handicap is that their leader is, erm, an idiot. He's a clown. He makes George Osborne look intelligent and deep-thinking.

As for the mini-manifesto, the problem they have is that they must not reveal their bottom line before the negotiations start. They have to keep the most important stuff back so they can use that when the hard bargaining starts, after the results in. I think this time, for the first time in living memory, they are going to have to come up with a manifesto that they could actually implement if they were to win an overall majority. Had they done this last time then they would not have made such a prominent promise about tuition fees in the first place, and wouldn't have got into so much trouble for having to change the policy when faced with actually governing.

[marknorthfield]

Let's face it, UKIP's biggest handicap is that their leader is, erm, an idiot. He's a clown. He makes George Osborne look intelligent and deep-thinking.

Haha. Yes, but to paraphrase an old joke, the idiots need representation...

[biffvernon]

Which means we might be subject to an election in which the weather has more than its usual effects...

You mean if I start the "It's Going To Be A Sunny Day With A Little Gentle Warm Rain Overnight Party" I could become Prime Minister?

[RenewableCandy]

I've known dafter promises.

[Totally_Baffled]

Reform of the benefits system such that every one is guaranteed a job that pays sufficient to their needs to live a basic but decent life.

Steve

I am interested in this idea -- is this similiar to a "work for benefits" kind of scheme? eg you work a public sector job, in return you get enough for basic living expenses etc...