These conclusions are extremely stark but they seem to be done on a good body of research and modelling.The relative decline from 10 to 1.1 b/py, from 2006 to 2065, is an 89% drop, which is even worse than the 80% relative decline for NA. But, EU’s per capita consumption rate is a little more than half that of NA’s in 2006, and consequently, that 89% drop puts EU’s absolute per capita consumption rate just slightly above my predicted threshold rate, of 1 b/py, for starvation and population decline. In fact, past 2040, what keeps EU about that threshold rate is the predicted increasing imports from NA, and to a lesser extent, from SA, plus the by then accelerating declining population change trend.
Dropping from a per capita consumption rate of 11-10 b/py to 1.3-1.1 b/py I think, would put the EU’s economy at high risk of transitioning from a developed region economy to a third world economy, at least by today’s standards, and, right on the threshold of starvation and a sharp population decline.
The predicted per capita consumption rate of 1.3 b/py is about the same as AF’s per capita consumption rate today. The projected per capita consumption rate of 1.1 b/py from 2050 to 2065 would put EU well below that predicted for the ME or SA in 2065.
However, EU would still be better of than AF and FS, which are predicted to drop below the 1 b/py threshold for starvation and population decline. But, if these regions cut their exports for domestic use, to mitigate starvation and population decline, then EU will be negatively effected even sooner than the projected in Figure 12. In other words the solid red line in Figure 12 would decline even more steeply than presented. I will return to these considerations after I finish my nine-region survey.
One of the beauties of the internet is that anybody who has the will can discover good quality analysis that is probably as good (or certainly near as much) as the secret national-security establishment modelling programmes.
Of course the CIA, Pentagon and others are doing their own versions of Crash_Watcher analysis of future oil production, export, per capita consumption and population forecasts as this has obvious national-security implications.
The general I am getting from these posts are that from 2030-2050 most regions in the world will have either reverted to a poor Third World level of consumption or crashed into die-offs. A few regions, like South America are a bit better off but only moderately.
This generally goes along with the originial Limits of Growth modelling back in the 70's.
Of course, it is not entirely out of question that the Chinese lead a thorium discovery and ensure we avoid these Malthusian nightmarish futures. Lets see. We have twenty years for science to come with alternatives to our future fate.
and yet our population increases through mass immigration and asylum, it will be interesting to see the turn around in view when people are actually starving .
my mistake!
