2013 Forecasts

[snow hope]

The double dip recession materialised in 2012 as I forecast.

I will forecast a triple dip for 2013.

Otherwise things will continue their downward slide. I am certainly expecting the toughest year yet in business.

Major issues/problems that may occur are :-

Financial crash - have a decent amount of spare cash in case the plastic card machines stop working!

Oil/fuel shortages - with the known (to us) widespread impacts.

War (in an oil region/ME). What is our oil doing under their sand anyway??

Food shortages/scarcity/price hikes, at a different level than previously experienced

Riots in the West - may escalate?

Thats enough to be getting on with.....

[acman]

But Mr Cameron has said Britain is on the right track, surely he knows what's going on?...................
Seriously, I'm sure Lord Beria has mentioned before that 2013 is when things start to get 'more interesting', as he might put it.
For me, I've always thought watch things like fashion retail, and moblile phone outlets, how so many of them survive is beyond me.
H.N.Y to all.
Alan.

[adam2]

As in previous years, I forecast that the coming year will be broadly similar to the one just ended, but a little worse.

There is always the chance of an ASE, but it is not in my view that likely, a slow slide into the next depression and/or the "long emergency" seems more probable and has already started IMHO.

Riots and civil disorder, a bit worse than in previous years, but not hugely so, in the UK.

Food and fuel to increase in price, but not hugely so.

More loss and hardship from extreme weather events.

More trouble in the ME but short of large scale war.

Crime to increase, especialy smuggling and the evasion of excise duties.

[Little John]

The stock markets may rise. The stock markets may fall

Th Euro zone may collapse. The Euro zone may hold together.

The gold price might head for the moon. The gold price may collapse and/or may be seized by the authorities.

Civil unrest may erupt into full-blown civil insurrection and the toppling of governments in Western countries as well as in the non-West. Or, it may not.




Irrespective of any of the above, the rape and pillage of Gaia will continue unabated and, for the majority of humanity, times will get harder.

[Catweazle]

I have been expecting a long, slow decline for some years, but I'm starting to think a hard crash could be on the horizon. I don't know if it will be 2013 or 2014, but from figures I've seen things just cannot go on as they are.

[JavaScriptDonkey]

I'm another vote for the Long Emergency.

It's not that big crashes don't happen it's just that we are a very rich country and can pretty much pay any price for oil and food that is likely to happen in the next few years.

We may see a major event in the EU but that is dependant on Germany.

UKIP will probably increase in popularity to the point where the main parties will have to do something or risk letting them get their snouts in the trough.

2015 will see the LibDem lose a large chunk of their vote and a firm step to the right based on immigration, benefits & monetary policy.

[Lord Beria3]

Agree with Adam2 really... nothing more to add.

Watch out for Japan - I think that country will have a interesting year what with the new government. Money printing, a falling yen, a gigantic debt burden and a miltaristic/nationalistic leader intent on revoking the war apologies.

[snow hope]

I have been expecting a long, slow decline for some years, but I'm starting to think a hard crash could be on the horizon. I don't know if it will be 2013 or 2014, but from figures I've seen things just cannot go on as they are.

Care to expand on what you have seen Cat?

[RenewableCandy]

For me, I've always thought watch things like fashion retail, and moblile phone outlets, how so many of them survive is beyond me.

Perhaps because a lot of them are fronts for other kinds of income? I've wondered that, too.

[Catweazle]

For me, I've always thought watch things like fashion retail, and moblile phone outlets, how so many of them survive is beyond me.

Perhaps because a lot of them are fronts for other kinds of income? I've wondered that, too.

Nailbars are often used as fronts for laundering drug money.

[Catweazle]

I have been expecting a long, slow decline for some years, but I'm starting to think a hard crash could be on the horizon. I don't know if it will be 2013 or 2014, but from figures I've seen things just cannot go on as they are.

Care to expand on what you have seen Cat?

Here's something to brighten your day.

http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/p ... 2147068528&

[RenewableCandy]

Oooh, an advert

(...lots of stuff that makes some sense...) We are offering to show you precisely how we think you should position your wealth right now – before it’s too late. Claim your first three issues and your crucial ‘Wealth Preservation Report’ immediately – absolutely free. You can download it now.

Simply click here now to take action ahead of the crisis.

Yours sincerely,

The MoneyWeek Team

PS. Remember, as soon as you start your trial we'll send you a free copy of our Wealth Preservation Report, showing you ways to respond to these threats.

This report is your to keep, regardless of whether you stay on as a MoneyWeek reader.

Click here to claim your copy of our Wealth Preservation Report.

[Catweazle]

Oooh, an advert

True, ( although it is an advert for free stuff ).

What do you think of their analysis ?

[RenewableCandy]

You're right: the analysis is a different matter! I think they're playing-up some things a bit too much: for a start off, as I understand it the UK didn't actually have to get a bailout that time in the 1970s: there was talk of it, and money ready, but none actually had to materialise (cmiIw). The riots and wotnot didn't exactly bring the country to a halt either.

But worse than that is the kind-of bias: they're talking of the state pension as a burden (which in a way it is, of course) and contrasting it with private pensions, which are seen as some kind of entitlement (which they are)...BUT is not the State pension also a genuine entitlement (people have paid their NI, after all) and private pensions also a burden (they are taken from the money which firms would otherwise invest in new kit, expertise, etc)? These points need included also.

Our country's debt is a problem, but a country is not a household. Money spent on keeping OAPs alive comes right back into the economy when they spend it, finding its way thence back to HMG in the form of various taxes.

I also happen not to regard a tax of 83% on the upper earnings of the very wealthy as a problem: I grew up in such a tax regime and it didn't do me any harm.

Really, to sum up the UK has a debt problem but so does everybody else. Those to whom the money has been promised (mainly the elderly of various types, plus various financial institutions who boasted that they knew what they were doing) are in for a bit of a let-down. We can either do this gracefully, or, erm, otherwise.

I do wonder what kind of investment MoneyWeek are recommending, given the circs.

[snow hope]

Hey Cat, I get their emails every day - money week - very advanced in their thinking - saying what others aren't......

I have read/listened to their prognosis - very worrying indeed. I also believe their will come a time in the not too distant future when we will have a fast crash.

Our systems are too complex and interdependent to have a slow crash imo.