the frack thread

How will oil depletion affect the way we live? What will the economic impact be? How will agriculture change? Will we thrive or merely survive?

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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

This looks like a significant article. What do people think?
In short, increased fracking for oil has effectively squeezed fracked dry gas out of the market.

Finally, as I have detailed here ad nauseam, the decline rates of shale gas wells are steep. They vary widely from play to play, but the output of shale gas wells commonly falls by 50 to 60 percent or more in the first year of production. This is why I have called it a treadmill — you have to keep drilling furiously to maintain flat output.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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mobbsey
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Post by mobbsey »

emordnilap wrote:looks like a significant article. What do people think
Try this one too from the New York Times.
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mobbsey
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Post by mobbsey »

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mobbsey
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Post by mobbsey »

Amazing how they can ask so many questions except for the really relevant ones! :-(

Download podcast --
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/wor ... -0927a.mp3
http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/bizdaily

Fracking Debate

'Business Daily', BBC World Service, 29th October 2012

A top Chevron executive argues that hydraulic fracturing, known as fracking, is safe and does not cause contamination of water supplies. Lesley Curwen talks to Ian MacDonald, vice-president of the energy company Chevron, for Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East. Asked whether fracking causes earthquakes, he says not to worry since any seismic activity would be 'a bit like a truck going past your house.' But Jan Kozderka, from Stop Hydraulic Fracturing, a pressure group in the Czech Republic, says that fracking should be permanently banned because of concerns about water contamination and the possibility of earthquakes. And Lucy Kellaway of the Financial Times looks at some of the worst ever job interview questions - such as 'if you were shrunk to the size of a pencil, and put in a blender, how would you get out?'
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOil ... FX20121030
Britain could soon launch a new round of licensing for shale gas exploration, pending information from the country's most advanced shale gas company and tighter regulation, Britain's Energy Minister said on Tuesday.

...

Energy Minister John Hayes told Reuters he had requested detailed information from Cuadrilla Resources about seismic testing, its management process and the company's timetable for moving from exploration to production.

"I'm confident that once those questions are complete, we can look again at the timetable for licensing new work," he said.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... 141#225141

Well. Time for Mr Hayes to move on?
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

This is happening just down the road from here.
  • 3.62 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of free gas initially in place (GIIP) within the seismic coverage, based on a most likely porosity of 7%, with 1.23 TCF of that being in the area identified as high grade.

    1.55 TCF GIIP within the seismic coverage for a minimum porosity case of 3%, of which 526.4 billion cubic feet falls within the high grade area.

    Corresponding estimates for the entire Option area are 13.05 TCF GIIP (most likely) and 5.59 TCF (minimum case).

    Total recoverable resource estimates for the Option area of between 1.49 TCF and 3.86 TCF.
Anyone got a layperson's interpretation of that? It's probably a gross over-estimate to whip up investment, as usual.

More here and Enegi's pdf from here.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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mobbsey
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Post by mobbsey »

emordnilap wrote:Anyone got a layperson's interpretation of that?
Yes, they're bloody desperate to do anything to keep the oil flowing, if only to keep their stock options worth something when they leave the company.

The Clare field is an oil field -- look at it as an isolated unit and it's like many others. It only means something if you look at it in the context of the other opportunities available to exploration and development companies, which at the moment is not a lot!
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

Good piece from Paul Ekins in New Scientist. He concludes:
What seems to have become clear in the last few weeks is that the chancellor and prime minister do not care much about climate responsibility, and have been persuaded by the gas industry and other voices that large-scale gas use is a relatively safe bet. This seems to me a dangerous conclusion for the UK, with little foundation in evidence. A future government should reverse it.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2 ... amble.html
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

"We are consulting on new tax incentives for shale gas and announcing the creation of a single office so that regulation is safe but simple," Osborne said in his half-yearly budget statement.

The Office for Unconventional Gas and Oil will join up responsibilities across government departments to provide a single point of contact for investors and streamline the regulatory process.

The Office for Unconventional Gas and Oil...OfUGO...Off U Go.
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

:lol: :lol: :lol:

I suppose it's better than calling it the Frack Office.
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

Fracking laws needed 'to control UK's dash for gas', says MEP
Senior European parliament member says Britain 'cannot be sure it knows what it is doing' if it allows controversial gas extraction to go ahead
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... sh-for-gas
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

I sent this picture of a typical fracked landscape off to my MP asking him if George Osbourne knows what he is letting himself, and us, in for. And they worry about what a wind farm looks like!!

Image

Please send it to your own MP. The more the ignorant so and so's see about their favourite technologies the more chance we might have of stopping them.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
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mobbsey
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Post by mobbsey »

Gave a talk to the "SAS" the other week (that's the School of Advanced Studies at the University of London, in case you'd thought I'd come-over all survivalist!) entitled "Fracking for Shale Gas -- Extreme Energy in the UK"

The gig was videoed and they've just put it online (all 2 hours! :shock: ) for all to see --
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9q6qEvZ83E
or
http://www.sas.ac.uk/videos-and-podcast ... -energy-uk

I think they may be organising more events around this theme next year so keep an eye on their web site.

This was the last of the public sessions in my "Extreme Energy" Autumn tour, examining the current political and economic clamour to support unconventional gas developments around the UK. The information/slides for the tour are still on-line at -- http://www.fraw.org.uk/2012tour/index.shtml
woodburner
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Post by woodburner »

Shame about the audio (the important bit). They should have given you a lapel mic, or similar.
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