Is Bakhtiari right?

[Pippa]

Very excitting news, I've just received a document from 10 Downing Street; it's a leaked transcript of a tape of Tony Blair as he practices what he is going to say in a speech he gives shortly to the nation. Here it is..........


"Dear wonderful people of the UK, it is my duty today as a Prime Minister on the last day of my leadership of this marvellous country, to tell you that, erh now let me think, .....it, er.....Yes, that's right,..ummmmm (clearing throat repeatedly) Ok, (heavy sigh, deep breath) Right......(clapping hands together, rubbing forhead, another deep sigh)...Yes (ha ha, me thinks, I've got it, I know that Cherie was trying to convince me to tell the people the truth but I think on reflection it's a little to unpleasant to swallow; anyway, why break the habits of a lifetime, I think instead of the truth I'll mix it up a bit)

I've had a wonderful time here with my family, with Cherie and we love you all and for the future.....I think.... it errrr......ummmmm, errrrrr, yes, well, as we all know, I'm sure it's going to be swell. So good bye for now as I have decided to go and live on a highly fortified island up north somewhere, nowhere too specific, so don't bother trying to find me, 'cause I'll be up there with quite a few of my favorite cronies with some very sensitive war heads and other ammo la la...take me away.. goodbye and can I say, good luck folks hahahahahahah....."



Strange, eh! Always had a feeling those politicians were off their rockers!

[mikepepler]

I've seen the Cuba video, and it is inspiring. However, it also involved the government farms being split up and handed out to the masses, many of whom became part- or full-time farmers. Will people do that here, and will the government confiscate the big farms from their owners to divide up into chunks that individuals can run on a sustainable basis? Or will we all be virtual slaves to the big landowners, just in order to have the money to get fed?

On oil production decline rates, remember that whatever the decline rate turns out to be, we need to reduce demand at a faster rate. The reason is that we are (hopefully) going to be embarking on a crash program to build renewable energy and change our infrastructure to something more sustainable. Doing this will require energy, and as the total energy available will be limited, it will only be available as a result of cuts in demand elsewhere. This is quite worrying, as there is a risk that we will be struggling to make the demand cuts fast enough just to stay level with depletion year-after-year, and there might not be the will to voluntarily cut demand even more to free up energy (and resources) for the restructuring of society.

[ianryder]

This is quite worrying, as there is a risk that we will be struggling to make the demand cuts fast enough just to stay level with depletion year-after-year, and there might not be the will to voluntarily cut demand even more to free up energy (and resources) for the restructuring of society.

This is where I don't see so much of a problem in the short term - if we're talking energy wasted in homes, there's plenty of spare there for other things if people were somehow forced to think about it - the sliding scale of taxes that have been mentioned on here for instance.

Another example would be public transport - it costs ?135 or so for me to get a day return to London from Exeter. I had to do this the other week even though it pained me greatly. To my utter horror the train was empty - I assumed it was so much due to the demand...obviously not! There's an easy way of taking 100 cars off the road with the right political will / emergency requirements. Times that by several thousand + a load of other things and there are big custs. Even the supermarkets are starting to get the concept of local food - if they got really serious about it, what sort of saving there? Plastic bags, Branson's taxiing idea, hybrid cars...it's a long list and we haven't even started it. IMHO obviously

[mikepepler]

This is quite worrying, as there is a risk that we will be struggling to make the demand cuts fast enough just to stay level with depletion year-after-year, and there might not be the will to voluntarily cut demand even more to free up energy (and resources) for the restructuring of society.

This is where I don't see so much of a problem in the short term - if we're talking energy wasted in homes, there's plenty of spare there for other things if people were somehow forced to think about it - the sliding scale of taxes that have been mentioned on here for instance.

Another example would be public transport - it costs ?135 or so for me to get a day return to London from Exeter. I had to do this the other week even though it pained me greatly. To my utter horror the train was empty - I assumed it was so much due to the demand...obviously not! There's an easy way of taking 100 cars off the road with the right political will / emergency requirements. Times that by several thousand + a load of other things and there are big custs. Even the supermarkets are starting to get the concept of local food - if they got really serious about it, what sort of saving there? Plastic bags, Branson's taxiing idea, hybrid cars...it's a long list and we haven't even started it. IMHO obviously

I agree with all of the above, but I think there is a risk that the savings made will be used to prolong "business as usual", not to free up resources for restructuring. For "the markets" to free up the resources, it would require a general acknowledgement of Peak Oil by business leaders, investors, etc. Likewise, for government to force the cuts to free up resources, there would need to be public and govt acknowledgement of the problem. Or perhaps they'll look for another excuse? Maybe it will all be done in the name of climate change, although the current schedules proposed for CO2 cuts would not be fast enough for Peak Oil I think, even if they were actually acheived.

[acrowe]

I agree Mike, it is a risk and I think the issue of how society reacts is crucial. For example I can see the USA trying to keep the business as usual much longer than say Norway or Sweden would.

As to a society?s reaction to crisis, I honestly think it is impossible to say how things will evolve. But I personally think it could well surprise the pessimists.

I would also like to say I think it is quite likely we will see cheaper oil for a period after a crisis or two, due to economic conditions now this will either allow certain countries to try and get back to business as usual for a short time before being once again plunged into crisis, or allow other nations to use the cheap energy to invest in changing the infrastructure and way of life, and that balance is where people with some knowledge will be important in trying to steer people in the right direction.