Peter Lilley, climate sceptic, arguing that black is white.
On Newsnight Now...Arctic sea ice
Moderator: Peak Moderation
On Newsnight Now...Arctic sea ice
On Newsnight now..article about arctic sea ice melt and Paxman interviewing new Green Party chairman.
Peter Lilley, climate sceptic, arguing that black is white.
Peter Lilley, climate sceptic, arguing that black is white.
Engage in geo-engineering. Plant a tree today.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19496674
More or less as I understand it, summer ice gone in 5 years or less, winter ice in maybe 20. UK could become wetter in summer and colder in winter, as the reduced temperature differential between the tropics and the pole shifts the path of the jet stream.
Climate change in action.
More or less as I understand it, summer ice gone in 5 years or less, winter ice in maybe 20. UK could become wetter in summer and colder in winter, as the reduced temperature differential between the tropics and the pole shifts the path of the jet stream.
Climate change in action.
-
Little John
So, as the rest of the planet burns, Britain just gets frigging wetter, and probably colder as well due to the North Atlantic conveyor belt turning off.RalphW wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19496674
More or less as I understand it, summer ice gone in 5 years or less, winter ice in maybe 20. UK could become wetter in summer and colder in winter, as the reduced temperature differential between the tropics and the pole shifts the path of the jet stream.
Climate change in action.
Sounds about bloody right....
-
biffvernon
- Posts: 18538
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Lincolnshire
- Contact:
Not the winter ice in 20. Winter's are going to be cold in the Arctic for a very long time.RalphW wrote: More or less as I understand it, summer ice gone in 5 years or less, winter ice in maybe 20.
The interesting thing is how many forecasts made a very few years ago are turning out to be wrong, on the bad side.
-
Blue Peter
- Posts: 1939
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Milton Keynes
You haven't seen this, then?biffvernon wrote:Not the winter ice in 20. Winter's are going to be cold in the Arctic for a very long time.RalphW wrote: More or less as I understand it, summer ice gone in 5 years or less, winter ice in maybe 20.
The interesting thing is how many forecasts made a very few years ago are turning out to be wrong, on the bad side.
Stuart Staniford
Peter.
Does anyone know where the love of God goes when the waves turn the seconds to hours?
Indeed we seem to be passed a tipping point for the sea ice.
The winter sea ice has fallen by a third already and loss is accelerating. It is all about how much heat is absorbed by the artic ocean waters in the summer months, and how fast it is released back into the sub-zero air of the arctic night by convection and radiation, etc., and how much the water column is churned by winter storms, bringing warmer water to the surface and preventing refreezing. Currently we are seeing the refreezing occuring later and later each year, and then we get a very rapid freeze as soon as a calm , high pressure system gets hold of the north pole. Unfortunately, one effect of all that open water is to encourge vigorous low pressure systems like the hurricane force one we had a couple of weeks ago.
I would not be surprised to see the north pole ice free in March, 2032 (if I live that long).
[edit] and all that churn also brings mixes the fresh melt water from the current season with the more saline water deeper in the column, reducing the temperate at which the water starts to freeze.
The winter sea ice has fallen by a third already and loss is accelerating. It is all about how much heat is absorbed by the artic ocean waters in the summer months, and how fast it is released back into the sub-zero air of the arctic night by convection and radiation, etc., and how much the water column is churned by winter storms, bringing warmer water to the surface and preventing refreezing. Currently we are seeing the refreezing occuring later and later each year, and then we get a very rapid freeze as soon as a calm , high pressure system gets hold of the north pole. Unfortunately, one effect of all that open water is to encourge vigorous low pressure systems like the hurricane force one we had a couple of weeks ago.
I would not be surprised to see the north pole ice free in March, 2032 (if I live that long).
[edit] and all that churn also brings mixes the fresh melt water from the current season with the more saline water deeper in the column, reducing the temperate at which the water starts to freeze.
Lol at Peter Lilley, 'this piece is bunkum'....'I stick with the IPCC that summer ice will be here till the end of the 21st century'.....'this is alarmist'....yada yada
Paxman should have told him to look at the NSIDC chart and shut up.
Paxman should have told him to look at the NSIDC chart and shut up.
The most complete exposition of a social myth comes when the myth itself is waning (Robert M MacIver 1947)
-
biffvernon
- Posts: 18538
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Lincolnshire
- Contact:
I did, including this bitBlue Peter wrote:You haven't seen this, then?biffvernon wrote:Not the winter ice in 20. Winter's are going to be cold in the Arctic for a very long time.RalphW wrote: More or less as I understand it, summer ice gone in 5 years or less, winter ice in maybe 20.
The interesting thing is how many forecasts made a very few years ago are turning out to be wrong, on the bad side.
Stuart Staniford
Peter.
When summer ice reaches zero there will still be cold weather in the winter and the sea will freeze. Of course it will all be new ice and so will mely quickly the following spring but to talk about ice free in the winter seems daft.A word about extrapolations, which are always dangerous. They get more dangerous when:...
It is not daft.
The piomas model is clearly showing a non-linear trend. The recently launched CRYOSAT-2 satellite seems to be confirming the piomas model, although the initial results are still being analysed.
It is easy to provide a simple physical model (like the one in my previous post) and it should be possible to put this into a more a sophisticaed one with real numbers from past observations to get some estimate of the positive feedbacks and the error bars (uncertainty levels).
Ice formation is a bit like peak oil - it is about flow rates (of heat energy) more than it is about total heat stored or the temperature of the air (or water) at any given point in the season. After all, the Thames does not freeze over every time the air temperatue falls to zero.
Up until now the scientists do not seem to have done this kind of modelling - or at least not reported it - because they do not seem to have expected the summer ice to melt so fast.
The piomas model is clearly showing a non-linear trend. The recently launched CRYOSAT-2 satellite seems to be confirming the piomas model, although the initial results are still being analysed.
It is easy to provide a simple physical model (like the one in my previous post) and it should be possible to put this into a more a sophisticaed one with real numbers from past observations to get some estimate of the positive feedbacks and the error bars (uncertainty levels).
Ice formation is a bit like peak oil - it is about flow rates (of heat energy) more than it is about total heat stored or the temperature of the air (or water) at any given point in the season. After all, the Thames does not freeze over every time the air temperatue falls to zero.
Up until now the scientists do not seem to have done this kind of modelling - or at least not reported it - because they do not seem to have expected the summer ice to melt so fast.
-
biffvernon
- Posts: 18538
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Lincolnshire
- Contact:
The air temperature over the Thames does not stay below zero from September to April. Just because a trend is non-linear that doesn't mean it will continue until the Arctic Ocean boils. There's going to be ice at the North Pole in Winter for a very long time. We really must be careful not to exaggerate things beyond the bounds of reality because it then casts doubt on reality.
Meanwhile the BBC actually have story:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19508906
Meanwhile the BBC actually have story:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19508906
-
adam2
- Site Admin
- Posts: 10898
- Joined: 02 Jul 2007, 17:49
- Location: North Somerset, twinned with Atlantis
Also reported here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19508906
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19508906
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
-
Mean Mr Mustard
- Posts: 1555
- Joined: 31 Dec 2006, 12:14
- Location: Cambridgeshire
Yeah, that seems rather mean. Brrrrr.clv101 wrote:I think we're a long way from an ice free winter.
The mean sea surface temperature for over much of the Arctic ocean was around -30C for Jan-Feb this year.
1855 Advertisement for Kier's Rock Oil -
"Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory."
The Future's so Bright, I gotta wear Night Vision Goggles...
"Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory."
The Future's so Bright, I gotta wear Night Vision Goggles...
-
adam2
- Site Admin
- Posts: 10898
- Joined: 02 Jul 2007, 17:49
- Location: North Somerset, twinned with Atlantis
I agree that summer in the arctic is likely to be ice free in 20 years, at THE VERY MOST and could well be ice free in as little as 5 years.
I doubt that the arctic winter will be ice free in the lifetime of anyone around today.
Even with very substantial warming, it will still be well below freezing in the winter, and that makes freezing unavoidable.
The ice will of course be much thinner and more easily melted each sumer, leading to a gradually lengthening ice free season.
Except in Zoos, parks or reservations, I expect that polar bears will soon be extinct.
These animals can survive in higher temperatures, but are not well adapted for competing with other predators for food.
Some experts suggest that polar bears would survive just fine in Canada, if it were not that the local black or brown bears out compete them for food.
I doubt that the arctic winter will be ice free in the lifetime of anyone around today.
Even with very substantial warming, it will still be well below freezing in the winter, and that makes freezing unavoidable.
The ice will of course be much thinner and more easily melted each sumer, leading to a gradually lengthening ice free season.
Except in Zoos, parks or reservations, I expect that polar bears will soon be extinct.
These animals can survive in higher temperatures, but are not well adapted for competing with other predators for food.
Some experts suggest that polar bears would survive just fine in Canada, if it were not that the local black or brown bears out compete them for food.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
I have to repeat that for ice to form on water, the water has to reach 0C (actually salt water needs to reach about -2 C), and if the water has been heated in summer to well above freezing ( eg. +10C ) and the water column is constantly being churned by waves and winter storms, it could take a long time - for the surface layer to be cooled to that temperature, as conduction and churn (and above 4C convection) will require a huge volume of water to be heated , and water has a large specific heat capacity (and the largest specific heat of freezing of any known material).
One third of the winter ice has gone in the last 20 years. With feedbacks setting in, I can see the rest going in a similar time frame. Already ice area is (or was before this year) one month later reaching a given figure than it was 20 years ago. Winter ice is already in retreat by area as well as volume.
One third of the winter ice has gone in the last 20 years. With feedbacks setting in, I can see the rest going in a similar time frame. Already ice area is (or was before this year) one month later reaching a given figure than it was 20 years ago. Winter ice is already in retreat by area as well as volume.