Loss of Arctic sea ice '70% man-made'

[Aurora]

The Guardian - 26/07/12

Study finds only 30% of radical loss of summer sea ice is due to natural variability in Atlantic – and it will probably get worse.

Article continues ...

[clv101]

Here's the video abstract:
http://bcove.me/8a2jgpmt

[biffvernon]

CryoSat-2 data on ice thinness:

Sea ice in the Arctic is disappearing at a far greater rate than previously expected, according to data from the first purpose-built satellite launched to study the thickness of the Earth's polar caps.

Preliminary results from the European Space Agency's CryoSat-2 probe indicate that 900 cubic kilometres of summer sea ice has disappeared from the Arctic ocean over the past year.

This rate of loss is 50% higher than most scenarios outlined by polar scientists and suggests that global warming, triggered by rising greenhouse gas emissions, is beginning to have a major impact on the region. In a few years the Arctic ocean could be free of ice in summer, triggering a rush to exploit its fish stocks, oil, minerals and sea routes.

Using instruments on earlier satellites, scientists could see that the area covered by summer sea ice in the Arctic has been dwindling rapidly. But the new measurements indicate that this ice has been thinning dramatically at the same time. For example, in regions north of Canada and Greenland, where ice thickness regularly stayed at around five to six metres in summer a decade ago, levels have dropped to one to three metres.

"Preliminary analysis of our data indicates that the rate of loss of sea ice volume in summer in the Arctic may be far larger than we had previously suspected," said Dr Seymour Laxon, of the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at University College London (UCL), where CryoSat-2 data is being analysed. "Very soon we may experience the iconic moment when, one day in the summer, we look at satellite images and see no sea ice coverage in the Arctic, just open water."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... -vanishing

[Mean Mr Mustard]

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/

[nexus]

Great GIF showing arctic sea ice loss:

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/piomas.gif

[PS_RalphW]

Same data, divided out by month of the year, and each set given a best fit eponential curve. There is no sceintific model to support eponential decline, but it is certainly thought provoking.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctische ... rnd2-1.png

[Mean Mr Mustard]

Presented with a clear arctic ocean in Sept 15, what would the political and MSM reaction be?

Polarised?

[SleeperService]

Same data, divided out by month of the year, and each set given a best fit eponential curve. There is no sceintific model to support eponential decline, but it is certainly thought provoking.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctische ... rnd2-1.png

That's a very informative presentation there Ralph Thanks for linking to it.

It's a bit of a shock to see how quickly an ice free period becomes no ice at all. I hope this is too pessimistic but I fear it won't be

@MMM You've been following RC's posts too closely I think

[biffvernon]

Another diagram with a downward curve right now:

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/imag ... series.png

[PS_RalphW]

The first of the different groups measuring arctic ice has reported a new record low sea ice area.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/ ... xtent.html

As with a lot of science, early reports are often revised later. This data set is considered one of the less reliable ones. We may have to wait until next week for a more definate result.

[biffvernon]

Bit of the Petermann Glacier drifting away:




By Andreas Muenchow. More at http://icyseas.org/2012/08/17/nares-str ... nd-photos/