What do you expect this world to be like in the year 2050

[UndercoverElephant]

I expect that, by 2050, we will all be living in a post WW3 world. What that will look like will depend on how big the war was and who "won".

I'm willing to bet that if something worthy of the name "World War III" is coming, then it will be centred on the Islamic-Israeli conflict. It will be Israel and the US against Iran, Syria, Pakistan and maybe even Saudi Arabia. The obvious next question is what role Russia and China would play if such a war broke out. The Russians have their own problems with Islamic Jihadists, but that wouldn't stop them arming the opponents of the US. Hopefully the UK will just get ignored because of its new post-gold-standard status as an international irrelevance. We won't have much of an army left, and no resources anybody wants.

[biffvernon]

We won't have much of an army left, and no resources anybody wants.

You've hit upon a sound policy framework for a stable political future.

[Little John]

We won't have much of an army left, and no resources anybody wants.

You've hit upon a sound policy framework for a stable political future.

Yep

Be big enough that no-one dares touch you or small enough that no-one notices you.

Being in the middle will be asking for trouble. Being in the middle is what got us dragged into the last Iraq war. We are basically like the playground bully's bitch. You know the kind of kid; the one who holds the bully's coat for him while he kicks the shit out of some poor unfortunate victim. All the while hoping he can ride on the bully's tailcoat and, perhaps, bask in some of his glory.

Its all a bit sad and pathetic.

[RenewableCandy]

Russia and China should be sensible enough to sit the whole thing out. Especially if it happens soon enough that there are people-in-charge who can remember what the last lot a war did to their two countries.

[SleeperService]

I think just about everything mentioned is possible. But I seriously doubt there'll be any satellites being launched. Unless there's a major clean up there'll be so much junk up there that an orbital life will be measured in months rather than years.

I'd think that we'll be back to undersea cables with fibre optics rather than telegraph for long distance comms.

Housing in the northern countries will change a lot as well. I think by then some towns will be rebuilding themselves to orientate housing to gain maximum solar benefit and with superinsulation, cycleways and better planning to reduce vehicle use, integrated transport hubs combining rail, local bus and parcel distribution.

Oh, and a lot more food grown by people in gardens and allotments in addition to farms.

[Standuble]

It depends, won't we still have enormous amounts of debt to pay off? If yes then we will probably be living in slums with no modern utilities or working as near slaves to pay back the debt. If the debt is waived through some method or another I suppose it could happen. I usually entertain the worst notions (loss of petro-chemical fertiliser = mass famine = mass disorder in the UK surrounded by ruthless centralised core = total failure of infrastructure, trade and organisation = return to the 18th century by 2050 with many millions dead.)

In a less pessimistic vision -

-World wide, economies default or suffer hyperinflation.
-Degree of starvation due to loss of food via oil, political and economic instability causes marked increase of conflict around the world with many nations dealing with internal and external threats.
-EU becomes ineffectual and falls apart, possible break-up of the USA.
-UK (and many other countries) employ conscription or drafts to fight abroad for a combination of resources, political favours, elimination of potential threats and means of maintaining overall foreign hegemony as extensive navies and air forces have become too expensive.
-No nukes are fired and none of the current major powers fight each other openly (fighting only through extensive proxy wars in third-world nations.) Nobody wants to call it a "world war" though everybody knows it is. Nobody wants to be the direct aggressor because they do not want to potentially fight a total war against numerous other nations.
-Most armies fight on an empty stomach with morale maintained via nationalism.
-Home front movements set up in Western nations where women and children "dig for victory" and establish extensive farm networks in urban and declining industrial areas for short term food and long term sustainability.
-Rationing kept in place for many years in many parts of the world.
-Healthcare becomes more expensive, NHS and other national healthcare systems become ineffectual and are only used for military purposes. Private healthcare is very expensive and is mostly of poor quality.
-General war and civil atrocities across the globe and continuous UN peacekeeping missions of varying degrees of success.

By 2050

- Many millions have died due to poorer life expectancy, war, poverty and disease
- Little international trade but steam boats are becoming slightly more popular.
- Most populations are loyal to their governments despite the poor conditions, popular treatment of activists as rebels/seditious elements.
- Return to serfism in some locations due to poor employment prospects.
- Europe is linked via steam train networks, roads whilst in disrepair are used by a few elite vehicle owners, cyclists and horse & cart. Whilst there are tensions over land and resources their time together under the EU and nostalgia for the past cause the general populations to have solidarity and amiable relations with each other.
- Russia and China have divided in smaller powers and facing an uncertain future.
- The past few decades have seen a boom in farmland which are tended to by hand. Horse and Oxen are hugely in demand. More wealthy landowners are in the process of undercutting poor farmers but have a way to go.
- Australia faces constant invasions from Indonesia and their Kangaroo populations.
- Cities like LA, NY and to an extent Washington DC. in America fared very poorly in the transition and have lost considerable importance however people are gradually trickling back.
- Hydrogen blimps are being introduced as a means of transport in Eastern Europe and the USA but few currently use it.
- Wars rage on across most of Asia, South America and Africa.
- Saudi Arabia are back using camels.
- Peak Coal is a pressing concern in numerous circles but totally ignored in others.

Post longer than I thought. Never mind.

[biffvernon]

It depends, won't we still have enormous amounts of debt to pay off?

That question needs to be qualified with a 'to whom is the debt owed?'

If it is we who owe us then it can disappear up it's own orifice. If it is we who owe the 1% then that's just tough on the 1%.

[Little John]

It depends, won't we still have enormous amounts of debt to pay off? If yes then we will probably be living in slums with no modern utilities or working as near slaves to pay back the debt. If the debt is waived through some method or another I suppose it could happen. I usually entertain the worst notions (loss of petro-chemical fertiliser = mass famine = mass disorder in the UK surrounded by ruthless centralised core = total failure of infrastructure, trade and organisation = return to the 18th century by 2050 with many millions dead.)

In a less pessimistic vision -

-World wide, economies default or suffer hyperinflation.
-Degree of starvation due to loss of food via oil, political and economic instability causes marked increase of conflict around the world with many nations dealing with internal and external threats.
-EU becomes ineffectual and falls apart, possible break-up of the USA.
-UK (and many other countries) employ conscription or drafts to fight abroad for a combination of resources, political favours, elimination of potential threats and means of maintaining overall foreign hegemony as extensive navies and air forces have become too expensive.
-No nukes are fired and none of the current major powers fight each other openly (fighting only through extensive proxy wars in third-world nations.) Nobody wants to call it a "world war" though everybody knows it is. Nobody wants to be the direct aggressor because they do not want to potentially fight a total war against numerous other nations.
-Most armies fight on an empty stomach with morale maintained via nationalism.
-Home front movements set up in Western nations where women and children "dig for victory" and establish extensive farm networks in urban and declining industrial areas for short term food and long term sustainability.
-Rationing kept in place for many years in many parts of the world.
-Healthcare becomes more expensive, NHS and other national healthcare systems become ineffectual and are only used for military purposes. Private healthcare is very expensive and is mostly of poor quality.
-General war and civil atrocities across the globe and continuous UN peacekeeping missions of varying degrees of success.

By 2050

- Many millions have died due to poorer life expectancy, war, poverty and disease
- Little international trade but steam boats are becoming slightly more popular.
- Most populations are loyal to their governments despite the poor conditions, popular treatment of activists as rebels/seditious elements.
- Return to serfism in some locations due to poor employment prospects.
- Europe is linked via steam train networks, roads whilst in disrepair are used by a few elite vehicle owners, cyclists and horse & cart. Whilst there are tensions over land and resources their time together under the EU and nostalgia for the past cause the general populations to have solidarity and amiable relations with each other.
- Russia and China have divided in smaller powers and facing an uncertain future.
- The past few decades have seen a boom in farmland which are tended to by hand. Horse and Oxen are hugely in demand. More wealthy landowners are in the process of undercutting poor farmers but have a way to go.
- Australia faces constant invasions from Indonesia and their Kangaroo populations.
- Cities like LA, NY and to an extent Washington DC. in America fared very poorly in the transition and have lost considerable importance however people are gradually trickling back.
- Hydrogen blimps are being introduced as a means of transport in Eastern Europe and the USA but few currently use it.
- Wars rage on across most of Asia, South America and Africa.
- Saudi Arabia are back using camels.
- Peak Coal is a pressing concern in numerous circles but totally ignored in others.

Post longer than I thought. Never mind.

Don't know if any of this will turn out, but very entertaining and thought provoking. Thanks.

[chris25]

By 2050, I would expect:


-Population growth to be negative with very few children born. Generation Y fail to reproduce as poor job stability, lack of child benefit and low subsistence incomes (for people with jobs) means they cannot sustain children.

-Generation Y, X and generations who can remember prior to 2015 struggle with the new reality. Mental illness, suicide and depression through the roof.

-Hunger to be a major issue. Starvation starts becoming a regular occurrence. Food costs become peoples priority. Widespread grow-your-own effort.

-Cities to be plagued by riots and social breakdown. Some areas start to resemble war areas with burnt out buildings and decaying structures. Areas occupied by the rich look like they do today but with heavy security presence.

-Very few full-time jobs to exist. People have several different jobs, most cash-in-hand barter type jobs.

-Infrastructure issues. Electricity supply becomes unreliable. The once prevalent technologically advanced systems used in logistics and retail have been phased out. So no more self-service checkouts.

-Large corporations have collapsed as burgeoning costs of maintaining centralized infrastructure financially overwhelms them.

-Major disintegration of the road network, with only main routes maintained. All other A, B and minor routes likely to become impassable to non 4X4 vehicles. Car use at 10% of what it is today, not just due to high petrol prices but due to far lower wages and employment prospects

-Very little hope in society (we are starting to see this now). People reminisce about the old days. Retro items become a good store of wealth, due to their "escapism" value (we are starting to see this now as well)

[Standuble]

By 2050, I would expect:


-Population growth to be negative with very few children born. Generation Y fail to reproduce as poor job stability, lack of child benefit and low subsistence incomes (for people with jobs) means they cannot sustain children.

-Generation Y, X and generations who can remember prior to 2015 struggle with the new reality. Mental illness, suicide and depression through the roof.

-Hunger to be a major issue. Starvation starts becoming a regular occurrence. Food costs become peoples priority. Widespread grow-your-own effort.

-Cities to be plagued by riots and social breakdown. Some areas start to resemble war areas with burnt out buildings and decaying structures. Areas occupied by the rich look like they do today but with heavy security presence.

-Very few full-time jobs to exist. People have several different jobs, most cash-in-hand barter type jobs.

-Infrastructure issues. Electricity supply becomes unreliable. The once prevalent technologically advanced systems used in logistics and retail have been phased out. So no more self-service checkouts.

-Large corporations have collapsed as burgeoning costs of maintaining centralized infrastructure financially overwhelms them.

-Major disintegration of the road network, with only main routes maintained. All other A, B and minor routes likely to become impassable to non 4X4 vehicles. Car use at 10% of what it is today, not just due to high petrol prices but due to far lower wages and employment prospects

-Very little hope in society (we are starting to see this now). People reminisce about the old days. Retro items become a good store of wealth, due to their "escapism" value (we are starting to see this now as well)

I'm guilty of the last one "Remember those days..."etc. I fear you are right on every point, providing they don't nuke each other first or the masses do not eliminate the "rich areas" through a sheer mass attack.

I may go and live in a cave.

[emordnilap]

I've just got Jihad vs McWorld by Benjamin R Barber out of the library, in a kind of morbid masochistic gesture. It was written in 1995. I'd known about it but never got round to reading it.

16/17 years since then - no time at all really. Yet the book is fascinatingly, eye-wideningly dated, like much sci-fi soon becomes. The 'information superhighway' is there, VCRs and Home Alone feature heavily, Apple is rarely mentioned (being in the doldrums in the 90s anyway), words like 'infotainment' and 'videology' repeat themselves and so on.

I'm only halfway through it and it's hard going. It so obviously incisive of early 1990s culture; he nails it. Yet it comes across almost naive today. I'll plough on, in the hope he makes some predictions. It'll be worth it if he does.

Anyway, it shows that to speculate about 2050 - 38 years hence, twice the temporal distance since Barber's book - while interesting, is futile.

[Little John]

I've just got Jihad vs McWorld by Benjamin R Barber out of the library, in a kind of morbid masochistic gesture. It was written in 1995. I'd known about it but never got round to reading it.

16/17 years since then - no time at all really. Yet the book is fascinatingly, eye-wideningly dated, like much sci-fi soon becomes. The 'information superhighway' is there, VCRs and Home Alone feature heavily, Apple is rarely mentioned (being in the doldrums in the 90s anyway), words like 'infotainment' and 'videology' repeat themselves and so on.

I'm only halfway through it and it's hard going. It so obviously incisive of early 1990s culture; he nails it. Yet it comes across almost naive today. I'll plough on, in the hope he makes some predictions. It'll be worth it if he does.

Anyway, it shows that to speculate about 2050 - 38 years hence, twice the temporal distance since Barber's book - while interesting, is futile.

The trick, I think, is not to get bogged down in specific technological details, as fascinating as they are. The only things we can make any predictions about with any semblance of confidence are things that relate to how humans have always tended to organise themselves given certain economic/political/environmental factors.

For a plausible view of the future, take a long hard look at the past.

[emordnilap]

For a plausible view of the future, take a long hard look at the past.

I hear you, Steve. I think my point was, the world is so utterly different to even just two decades ago, that looking at the past is no real guide. We only know that the future is not going to be very much like today.

[Little John]

For a plausible view of the future, take a long hard look at the past.

I hear you, Steve. I think my point was, the world is so utterly different to even just two decades ago, that looking at the past is no real guide. We only know that the future is not going to be very much like today.

OK, I'll make some predictions

Either, we get a bloody great big world war, in which case all bets (and predictions) are off.

Or, we don't get a war, in which case, as our civilisation winds down, I predict that we will get ever more suppressive government to the point where they might reasonably be called fascist.

Or, we get a socialist revolution, which will probably still be fairly repressive, but probably not as much as a fascist one as there will be less reason for the people to wish to overturn them.

The information technologies of surveillance will no doubt play a pretty big part in any of the above scenarios, particularly 2 and 3. Perhaps even a crucial part.

[emordnilap]

Either, we get a bloody great big world war, in which case all bets (and predictions) are off.

Or, we don't get a war, in which case, as our civilisation winds down, I predict that we will get ever more suppressive government to the point where they might reasonably be called fascist.

I think 'and' will be the closest.