The Eurozone crisis/break-up may crash the system?

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 16 Jul 2012, 15:02

BBC News - 16/07/12

The global economic recovery is still at risk, and eurozone economies remain in a "precarious" situation, the International Monetary Fund has said.

A delayed or insufficient response from European leaders to the crisis would further derail the recovery, it said.

The IMF downgraded its forecast for global growth for 2013 to 3.9% from the 4.1% prediction it made in April.

Article continues ...

energy-village · Post by **energy-village** » 16 Jul 2012, 17:57

What is a crisis? Quick google.

Seeger, Sellnow and Ulmer:

Includes:
1. unexpected (i.e., a surprise)
2. creates uncertainty
3. is seen as a threat to important goals

What we're going through now should not really be a 'surprise' and I assume the 'important goals' envisaged are further growth. Even in the best scenario how long can that go on given we live on a little planet with a booming population?

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 16 Jul 2012, 22:32

The Guardian - 16/07/12

The eurozone endgame will begin in Greece

Greece won't be able to make its austerity policies stick and, as the global depression worsens, will have to leave the eurozone.

Article continues ...

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 16 Jul 2012, 23:41

energy-village wrote:What is a crisis? Quick google.

Seeger, Sellnow and Ulmer:

Includes:
1. unexpected (i.e., a surprise)
2. creates uncertainty
3. is seen as a threat to important goals
What we're going through now should not really be a 'surprise' and I assume the 'important goals' envisaged are further growth. Even in the best scenario how long can that go on given we live on a little planet with a booming population?

That's not actually right. A crisis needn't necessarily come as a surprise, for example. "Crisis" literal meaning is "the point at which a decision has to be made". Comes from the same root as "criticise" (as in, to judge) and the like. Ironically, from the olde Greek.

energy-village · Post by **energy-village** » 17 Jul 2012, 14:32

Ah, thank you.

It wasn't much of a point I was making. I'm just frustrated that the "crisis" is often put across as if (i) it was a surprise to all and (ii) when it is over it will be BAU.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 17 Jul 2012, 17:08

Stephanomics was back this morning on Radio 4. Steph Flanders in discussion with three people with big track records in the subject.

In the first of a new series of her award-winning programme on the economics of our times, the BBC's Economics Editor Stephanie Flanders discusses with leading economists what will pull Britain out of recession and restore the economy to growth. In the 1930s, after the Great Depression, Britain got growth first through a housing boom in the private sector and then through a world war. Eighty years later, what is going to do the trick this time?

Among those joining Stephanie are the leading economic historian, Nicholas Crafts; the expert on housing and planning and former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, Kate Barker; and Oxford economist, Dieter Helm.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01ks52r#synopsis

Superficially, it sounded a very intelligent discussion, but when one listens hard one realises that none of them have a clue and the word 'energy' or anything vaguely related to it was not mentioned once.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 17 Jul 2012, 17:21

Pity they hadn't prepared by reading and internalising such concepts as shown on the graph here:

(whole article here).

Sure, another energy source will be along soon. All we have to do is use up fossil fuels quickly enough to drive the necessary innovation!

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 18 Jul 2012, 15:29

I find Rob Hopkins has another graph they should study:

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Jul 2012, 18:54

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/am ... o-project/

The IMF could hardly be clearer. It is a pre-emptive move to pin responsibility for the coming deluge exactly where it belongs:

On those who created this doomsday machine and pushed it through as a federalist Trojan horse, with scant concern for Europe’s democracies; on a second group of people who ran it for a decade with high-handed arrogance, disregarding warnings as the North-South gap grew to dangerous levels; and on a third group of leaders – led by Chancellor Angela Merkel – who now refuse to face up to the awful implications of what has happened.

The IMF is the leader of the Eurosceptic camp now.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 24 Jul 2012, 06:12

BBC News - 23/07/12

Moody's warns on Germany's AAA credit rating

The credit ratings agency Moody's has warned the outlook for Germany's AAA credit rating is negative, the first step towards a possible downgrade.

The ratings for the eurozone's other top-rated economies the Netherlands and Luxembourg were also put on negative outlooks.

Moodys said the countries were at risk from wider eurozone troubles and a possible Greek exit from the euro.

France and Austria lost their AAA ratings earlier this year.

Original Article

SleeperService · Post by **SleeperService** » 24 Jul 2012, 10:34

The sidebar article quoting Wolfgang Schaeuble is quite revealing. He appears to have accepted Greece's collapse out of the Eurozone and switched to Spain will be OK. Interesting as earlier he said similar things about Greece being OK in the long term.

May this be a sign that somebody is preparing a managed descent?

Germany even facing a suggestion of losing it's AAA rating will be a shock to most of the population, I wonder what the 'Wise Men' are talking about this morning??

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 25 Jul 2012, 08:08

The Guardian - 24/07/12

How Finland keeps its head above eurozone crisis

Finland's economy is dominated by services but it is competitive in manufacturing – and its revenues are bigger than its debt.

Article continues ...

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 26 Jul 2012, 08:01

The Guardian - 25/07/12

Eurozone fears ease on hopes of ECB intervention

Financial markets bounce on indications that the European Central Bank will boost firepower of eurozone bailout fund.

Article continues ...

When are TPTB going to wise up to the fact that the eurozone is a dead parrot?

More good money after bad.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 26 Jul 2012, 15:44

The Guardian - 26/07/12

Euro is irreversible, declares European Central Bank president Mario Draghi

ECB will do 'whatever it takes' to preserve the currency.

Article continues ...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 26 Jul 2012, 18:12

Aurora wrote:
The Guardian - 26/07/12

Euro is irreversible, declares European Central Bank president Mario Draghi

ECB will do 'whatever it takes' to preserve the currency.

Article continues ...

What Mario Draghi wants is irrelevant. He can't print until the German constitutional court tells him he can.