Scientists say that the latest observations suggest that Arctic sea ice cover is continuing to shrink and thin
John Vidal, Guardian Online, Wednesday 27th June 2012
Sea ice in the Arctic has melted faster this year than ever recorded before, according to the US government's National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC).
Satellite observations show the extent of the floating ice that melts and refreezes every year was 318,000 square miles less last week than the same day period in 2007, the year of record low extent, and the lowest observed at this time of year since records began in 1979. Separate observations by University of Washington researchers suggest that the volume of Arctic sea ice is also the smallest ever calculated for this time of year.
Scientists cautioned that it is still early in the "melt season", but said that the latest observations suggest that the Arctic sea ice cover is continuing to shrink and thin and the pattern of record annual melts seen since 2000 is now well established. Last year saw the second greatest sea ice melt on record, 36% below the average minimum from 1979-2000.
Royal Dutch Shell is expected to be granted the permits it needs to drill for oil in the Arctic seas north of Alaska, the US interior secretary has said, giving the go-ahead for one of the industry’s most controversial projects.
Ken Salazar, the interior secretary, said Shell had been demonstrating its equipment for preventing and containing an oil spill during drilling, and had so far met all the requirements set out by US regulators.
“There’s not going to be an oil spill,” he said. “I don’t expect there’s going to be a problem.”
Mr Salazar said it was “highly likely” that the permits would be granted.
He added that inspectors would be watching the drilling “24/7” and Shell and the oil industry would face “high risk” should anything go wrong.
“If there would be a problem, which one always has to anticipate, I believe that the response capabilities are there to arrest the problem in a very quick fashion and avoid environmental damage,” he said.
“If we were not confident that that were to happen, I would not let the permits go forward.”
He said that the interior department would soon set out plans for further sales of drilling leases in the Arctic to be held in 2016-17. In November, the department said the first of the new Arctic leases, in the Beaufort Sea, could be sold in 2015 but that has been put back by two years.
Plans to exploit the retreat of Arctic sea ice to drill for offshore oil and gas have become contentious following the BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.
Environmental campaigners argue that a similar blowout during the drilling process would be even more serious, because the remote location and icy conditions would make stopping and cleaning up any leak more difficult, and the oil would disperse more slowly in colder water.
Shell acquired its leases to drill in the Arctic Chukchi and Beaufort seas for $2.2bn in 2005-08, and had first planned to drill in the summer of 2007 but was held up by a series of legal challenges and problems obtaining permits from the US authorities.
Under pressure from the industry and Republican politicians about the impact on employment caused by restrictions on drilling such as the six-month moratorium in the deep waters of the gulf that followed the BP spill, the Obama administration has been shifting to a more accommodating stance in its relations with oil companies.
Mr Salazar said oil and gas formed part of Mr Obama’s “all of the above” energy strategy.
Having secured most of the necessary approvals to start drilling this summer, Shell now needs only the specific permits for the ten wells it plans to drill this year and in 2013.
Those are dependent on trials of its technology for capping off a leak, and for containing and recovering any spilled oil; both of which proved difficult for BP during the gulf spill.
The capping stack, intended to be put on top of a leaking well, was demonstrated successfully to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, the offshore regulator, on Monday, and Shell intends to show its containment technology in action in the coming weeks.
The only remaining obstacle is the weather. The Arctic ice has retreated more slowly than expected this year, delaying Shell’s plans by about two weeks. The company expects to be able to move into position in late July or early August.
Greenpeace, the environmental group, says it is mounting one of its largest campaigns in an attempt to stop Shell’s drilling programme, and has already hit the company with fake adverts, press releases and a video.
Last edited by emordnilap on 28 Jun 2012, 17:42, edited 1 time in total.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
Well, presented like that it's not much more or less than variation which could be considered normal. Indeed, the 2012 April figure is spot on the average for 1979/2000. It has dropped a bit now, but it's unreasonable to draw conclusions, unless you're after a research grant perhaps.
In general it's a pity scientists are not as honest as they would like people to believe, then there wouldn't be so much controversy.
Woodburner does have a point about April - sea ice extent a few months ago was 'normal'.
However, this month is certainly isn't normal. Woodburner is wrong to say "it's not much more or less than variation which could be considered normal". It isn't within the normal variation, today's Arctic sea ice extent is well outside 2SD of the 79-2000 period.
The change that's happening is the amplitude of the seasonal cycle is increasing.
The information that is missing is interesting. The 2000-2010 average would be useful as would the full year. If the total area is changing that would be significant at both max and min points on the cycle, but especially the minimum.
The amplitude increase as already stated could be a sign of the mechanism causing the changes. Later spring delaying thaw but warmer spring accelerating loss.
As so many Americans have noticed, this was a spring for the record books just about everywhere in the continental United States. And keep in mind that at the moment we also seem to be making a beeline for a potentially record-setting summer, the months of your job hunt for a future, and maybe the hottest year in American history as well.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
