Greece Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/619341- ... e-to-leave

[frank_begbie]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/619341- ... e-to-leave

Greece will never be kicked out of the Eurozone, because to do so Europe would first need to change its treaties to allow Eurozone members to be expelled. That would only increase doubts about other financially weak countries and the euro project as a whole.

[RenewableCandy]

Can it be thrown off the Euro but not out of the EU? After all, we (UK) are not in the Euro but we are in the EU.

[adam2]

Perhaps Greece will remain in the EU and will continue to use the Euro, but default on their debts and be cut of from furthur loans/grants/bailouts etc.
They would therefore only be able to spend what they earn.

[UndercoverElephant]

Can it be thrown off the Euro but not out of the EU?

No.

After all, we (UK) are not in the Euro but we are in the EU.

Yes, but we never signed a treaty joining the euro.

I had been under the impression that it is possible for a country to be kicked out of the EU, but I was wrong. There is no existing legal mechanism for doing this either. Even if Greece were to invade Italy, the only existing sanction would be to suspend their voting rights. There is a mechanism for voluntarily withdrawing from the EU, but I can't see Greece ever doing this. There is no legal mechanism for withdrawing from the eurozone, but also no way to stop Greece from using Drachmas if it wants to, which it doesn't.

Greece isn't going anywhere without political turmoil within the EU on a vastly bigger scale than at present.

[emordnilap]

Just found this.

Ireland’s voters were told: Vote No and the flow of money from the troika will cease. And so they voted Yes, even though I suspect that no government minister, no rank and file Fine Gael or Labour Party member, no man or woman on the street believes that the Fiscal Compact they voted for makes sense.

Consider what they are telling the Greek people: They are saying that Greece, to remain in the Eurozone, must,

(a) carry on borrowing from the EFSF at 4% (and thus adding to Greece’s public debt) in order to pay the ECB (which will be making a 20% profit from these payments, courtesy of the fact that it had previously bought Greece’s bonds at a 20% to 30% discount)

(b) reduce public spending by 12 billion euros in order to be ‘allowed’ to borrow for the benefit of bolstering the ECB’s profits from these transactions involving bankrupt Greece.

If the Devil wanted to guarantee that Greece is pushed out of the Eurozone, he and his evil handmaidens could not make up the above, satanic, scenario. Meanwhile, the same happens in Spain, where the government is forced to borrow money (at nearly 7%) it can hardly raise in order to shore up banks that are borrowing from the ECB (at 1%) to lend to the Spanish government at (7%) so that the latter can… bail them out. Not even the sickest of minds could make this up!

[UndercoverElephant]

Why the Irish people are not already in open revolt is beyond me.

[peaceful_life]

.[/quote]What the Greek electorate did was to vote as individuals very much in the 'I'm alright Jack' mode..[/quote]

Perhaps they were manipulated?

"For this, Tsipras et al were vilified by their opponents, by EU and US politicians, and by western media, who consistently label him "extreme left". The way they were phrasing it, Armageddon would be just around the corner if Greeks would dare elect such heresy, and the country would be thrown out of the eurozone and the EU, and for all intents and purposes, be thrown off the planet."

http://theautomaticearth.org/Finance/be ... -fast.html

[UndercoverElephant]

Just found this.

The establishment view in Europe is that the problem is too much debt (by profligate countries like Greece) and, therefore, that the solution must involve (a) austerity and (b) structural reforms (which increase the competitiveness of the weaker states). The problem, however, is that the establishment view is profoundly mistaken and, as a result, the proposed treatment poisons the patient.

I heard a new twist on this metaphor yesterday. This medicine is so toxic that not only is it killing the patient, it is also killing the doctor.

[emordnilap]

Why the Irish people are not already in open revolt is beyond me.

Why are the Irish not revolting?

Seriously, we have several pieces of string. Here are a few:

Informal economy - always strong, naturally more widespread these days and who can blame them?
Cash - there's a lot floating around; it's being eaten into of course but it does keep local economies buzzing
Emigration - the usual Irish solution and it's mainly the younger generation, the ones you would expect to rise up
Temperament - mañana, mañana
Is it worth it? - think Rossport, Glen of the Downs, Hill of Tara and state-sponsored aggression
Is it worth it? - think repeated referenda till we give the right answer; think obfuscation and lies to push through political agenda
Culture - the Irish have always been a little anarchic, getting on with their lives in spite of oppression

There's more: inertia/momentum/call it what you will in the system - you pay me, I can pay her, she can pay you sort of thing; volunteerism and helping neighbours is normal (the number of charities for a small island staggers me); people keeping their head down - it could be you next; two can live as cheaply as one etc etc

Why aren't more countries in open revolt is worth asking. The US, for instance, have higher relative and absolute numbers of dispossessed, where you may have no house and no social safety net, a rare combination in Ireland.

[Aurora]

BBC iPlayer - 25/06/12

John Humphrys investigates the economic crisis in Greece, meeting ordinary Greeks and exploring how the outcome of the upcoming election may signpost the future of Europe.

Video

John Humphrys presented this program on BBC1 this evening.

Well worth watching, albeit frightening when one considers that the spectre of another civil war in Greece may be on the horizon.

[UndercoverElephant]

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/2 ... UA20120624

Stop asking for more help, Germany tells Greece

Finance Minister says ball now in Greece's court

* Schaeuble takes tough line on Greece's wish list

* Dismisses euro bonds as 'spending other people's money'

Schaeuble took a firm line, saying: "The ball is now in Greece's court. It's in their hands to win back the confidence of the people of Europe. They're only going to accomplish that with concrete actions and deeds."

This is insane. What, exactly, are the Greeks supposed to do to "win back the confidence of the people of Europe"? It's like demanding that a man who has fallen out of an aeroplane and is now heading towards the ground, grows wings and starts to fly. "Stop screaming for a parachute!"

[Aurora]

Another topical program from the Beeb this evening:

Coming Here Soon: Greece, Bust and Broken - BBC 3 @ 9.00pm

Episode 1 of 3

Duration: 1 hour

The world is currently experiencing the worst financial meltdown in living memory, but what is it like to be young and caught up in this crisis, and what lessons can be learned in the UK? To find out, reporter Stacey Dooley travels to Greece, Ireland and Japan, three countries each facing very different and very difficult economic challenges.

Stacey begins her investigation in Greece, where for years successive governments have failed to balance the nation's books. Crippled with one of the biggest national debts in the world Greece recently needed a multi-billion bailout from Europe to avoid bankruptcy, but to secure this loan the Greek government was forced to implement massive spending cuts and tax hikes. These austerity measures have dramatically affected the lives of young Greeks, leaving more than half unemployed and many more in only part-time or temporary work.

Stacey's investigation into the Greek situation comes at a crucial time. Still on the brink of going bust the government must decide whether to accept another bailout and introduce even harsher austerity measures, or let the country go bankrupt and leave the Euro.

Her journey begins with a street tour of Athens where she quickly learns how badly affected normal Greeks are as she encounters scavengers, soup kitchens and witnesses a suicide attempt. The woman is one of 700 civil servants working in social housing, but with the government department being shut not only are their jobs under threat, but so too are the lives of the million Greeks who rely on the service.

Stacey's investigation continues with a look at how new charges for receiving even basic medical help are effectively denying many poor Greeks access to their national health service. She visits the town of Perama where a charity-run clinic now treats sick locals in their hundreds and pays a home visit to a couple facing huge medical bills after the complicated birth of their newborn baby.

Against this backdrop of poverty and desperation many young Greeks are choosing to battle against the government and its austerity measures. Stacey accompanies one recently-formed group, called We Do Not Pay, as they take over an underground station in protest at recent price increases imposed on many public services. But whilst many Greeks are choosing to stay and fight others are opting to give up their dreams of city life, instead fleeing to the country. Stacey travels to the island of Chios to visit two former civil servants who have taken a massive gamble in an attempt to earn a living - risking their family's entire life savings to set up a snail farm.

Stacey's investigation reaches its climax on the day politicians decide to vote in favour of a second bailout and a further wave of harsh austerity measures. She attends a massive public demonstration gathered outside parliament that dramatically turns into a violent riot. It offers her a glimpse of how angry and desperate a people can become when pushed to breaking point by economic policies, and it gives an insight into what could happen in the UK if our debt gets any worse.

See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01kbz15

[Aurora]

Coming Here Soon: Greece, Bust and Broken - BBC 3 - 26/06/12

Stacey Dooley - young, dippy and naive she may be but the message about the current plight of ordinary folk in Greece came through loud and clear.

iPlayer link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01kbz15

Episode 2, entitled 'Ireland, Lost and Leaving', can be seen on BBC 3 @ 9.00pm, next Tuesday, 3rd July.

In the second episode, Stacey heads to Ireland to see how they are coping several years after the country almost went bust.

When Stacey arrives in Dublin's Temple Bar the party is in full swing, but it's not long before she discovers that below the surface tensions are high when she stumbles across a group of young protesters angered by the mess they have inherited. When the police move in a dramatic scene unfolds.

On the next leg of her investigation, Stacey explores the country's infamous property boom and discovers its dangerous and devastating consequences. She meets a group of young, first-time buyers whose dream homes turned out to be anything but, and is shocked to hear that they now face homelessness and bankruptcy.

For the final leg of her journey, Stacey spends time with a girl in her twenties who is preparing to move to the other side of the world simply to find work. Since the recession hit, emigration figures have rocketed in Ireland and now almost 1,000 people a week are checking out. Is Ireland at risk of losing an entire generation? And if things don't improve at home is this a trend we could see coming to Britain soon?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01kg7ky

[Aurora]

The Guardian - 04/07/12

Officials from the IMF, European Central Bank and the European commission are beginning a visit to Greece today to assess the implementation of its second international bailout.

Article continues ...

Christine Lagarde has already raised the tension ahead of today's talks in Athens, by saying she is not considering renegotiating the terms of Greece's bailout agreement.

Interviewed last night, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund said the Troika is in Athens to check on Greece's progress, not to offer more concessions.