The future: not as it was promised to be?

Hector88 · Post by **Hector88** » 19 Jun 2012, 12:44

Hi all, I'm new to this forum and have only a basic understanding of peak oil, economics and climate change. I'm a recent university graduate, currently claiming Job Seekers, who is more than a little worried about what is happening in Greece (let alone within our own government). I wonder, what's the most likely outcome of this whole thing? In 5, 10 years time, where will we be? Being in my early twenties, I hold the double-edged sword of being free of most responsibilities, such as a mortgage etc, but without getting a job to further the conventional economy, my situation remains limited and my peers continue to sneer at me for being uncertain about how to progress. I've read up on things like Transition Towns and permaculture - all of which sound positive and worthwile - but because there's still this expectation that this recession will blow over, and we'll go back to the happy days (if such a time can be said to exist) of say, the late 90s/early 00s, it's extremely difficult to air any views which differ; any views which say, what if we don't pull through this? Your thoughts would be much appreciated.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Jun 2012, 12:59

Welcome to PowerSwitch, Hector88.

Do you mind if I ask what subject you studied at university? (I'm guessing it wasn't economics or a science?)

I'm afraid that the deeper you dig into this can of worms, the clearer it becomes that there is no bottom. What is happening in Greece is a sideshow (Spain and Italy being the main story) of a sideshow (the entire eurozone crisis is just a political manifestation of the global monetary/debt crisis) of a sideshow (the financial crisis could be viewed as a large blip if it wasn't for the underlying problems of overpopulation/overconsumption, resource depletion and ecological collapse.)

As for the most likely outcome - we still can't be certain how much of the debt mountain will ultimately be defaulted on and how much will be inflated away, but either way it leads to a systematic destruction of living standards in the western world. What you have seen so far is just for starters. The main course will be served when the reality-denial stops and the full-blown panic starts. This will certainly happen within 5 years, and the way things are going at the moment I can imagine it happening within 5 months. Or maybe weeks.

Anyway, you have at least come to the right place if you want to discuss these topics. We trade in reality on this forum - and it's a precious commodity.

UE

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 19 Jun 2012, 13:44

Welcome, Hector, you raise exactly the issues that exercise us here.

Answers are tricky.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 19 Jun 2012, 13:54

Welcome, Hector88.

I echo what UE said. In a nutshell, we ain't seen nothing yet.

That said, if there's one thing you can't predict, it's the future.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 19 Jun 2012, 15:29

Welcome Hector. You've begun a journey. One that everyone is going to embark on over the coming years. You've just set off on that journey a little sooner than many. You should be commended for your foresight because, in recognizing the existence of the problem, you are already ahead of the game.

There are typically a few psychological staging posts in this journey as you gain a deeper understanding of the monumental problems coming down the pipe for humanity;

Denial

Fear

Anger

Despair

Acceptance

Speaking for myself, I find myself still vacillating between despair and acceptance. I'm getting there though.

So will you mate.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 19 Jun 2012, 15:42

stevecook172001 wrote:Speaking for myself, I find myself still vacillating between despair and acceptance.

+1

This is the purgatory I've been inhabiting for the past two years.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 19 Jun 2012, 15:57

stevecook172001 wrote:Denial

Fear

Anger

Despair

Acceptance

Luckily, I missed the first four, though I sometimes feel anger at what continues to be done to this planet using practically no other criterion than popularity.

In other words, if you accept what is central to this forum, peak oil and its aftermath, you don't need the first four, they're a waste of time. You should be able (obviously individuals differ) to get on with your life as best you can - with that aftermath informing your decisions.

Hector, buried in this forum are the answers to practical questions about how to prepare for the coming years/decades. It's worth dredging but ask away about specific issues. You need to let us know your particular hopes, skills and circumstances.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Jun 2012, 16:07

I guess I'm lucky I went through all these stages when I was Hector's age, 25 years ago. It didn't feel that way for most of those 25 years, but now it does. I do still go through bouts of anger, but my acceptance is total and right now I'd say my over-riding emotion is one of awe at the sheer enormity of everything that is happening, and also anticipation. As some possible futures are being closed off, others are opening up, and not everything about all of them is bad. I think it is possible to look at this crisis as the final warning/lesson for humanity, rather than the end of the world. We still have a certain amount of control over what happens in the coming decades, and right now there is a golden opportunity for major cultural change. It's a lot easier to think outside of the box when you've just watched the box eat itself.

And there's always the mouthwatering prospect of the Greeks beating the Germans on Friday!

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 19 Jun 2012, 23:03

Hi Hector!

Fille and Fils here will soon be going through what you're doing and frankly I don't envy them.

I, too, am on jobseekers, and to cap it all they've just awarded me a place on the marvellous "work programme" in which someone will attempt to help me find "work"

Were I you (and I'm assuming you're in reasonably good health, as in, can do an ordinary day's work most days) I'd seriously consider volunteering for something that involves learning a practical skill. To give examples, 'round here that would mean the Bike repair CommunityInterestCo, the Organic Nursery (this includes helping the people with "learning difficulties" who do the actual physical work), the Historical Re-enactment guys or even, if you're the action type, the TA. If whatever you choose is even vaguely charitable, you still get your JSA.

If you play a musical instrument, great, carry on practising and get better at it. If you don't, think about starting. If you do have any health issues, use your time out of work to get them sorted: come off the pills, get the toothache fixed, learn to manage the head, whatever.

Now, in the unlikely event that PO is total bunk and the whole thing'll blow over next year, your volunteering activities will look good on your CV, your health will be better, you'll have some musical skill to impress the Opposite and you'll walk into a job, but if otoh there really is a problem, then you'll have at least one useful skill, and a bunch of new friends.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 19 Jun 2012, 23:05

UndercoverElephant wrote:It's a lot easier to think outside of the box when you've just watched the box eat itself.

energy-village · Post by **energy-village** » 19 Jun 2012, 23:40

Hector88 wrote: I'm a recent university graduate, currently claiming Job Seekers, who is more than a little worried about what is happening in Greece (let alone within our own government). I wonder, what's the most likely outcome of this whole thing? In 5, 10 years time, where will we be?

Welcome Hector - big question!

Alas, no one has a crystal ball here, there's a lot of intelligent speculation and practical advice though. The usual looking through past threads is a good start, of course.

You don't say how old you are but if you are in your early twenties you've certainly had quite a wake-up call. Presumably all your life - right up to 2008 - you've lived through boom times, 18 years of uninterrupted growth. Not surprising then if most people of your (?) generation expect "normality" to return sooner or later. Alas, you won't find many on here who expect that to happen in 5, 10 years time (or indeed ever). There's usually a debate here between those who expect a "quick crash" and those who think it be a long-drawn-out slump, but the exact shape of things to come is definitely open for a lot of debate. Being flexible and getting skilled up are two handy pieces of advice.

ujoni08 · Post by **ujoni08** » 20 Jun 2012, 01:29

Welcome, Hector

Agree with above posts. The fact that you're asking means you're already on the road. It's a scary one, but better than ignoring it all.

Kentucky Fried Panda · Post by **Kentucky Fried Panda** » 20 Jun 2012, 15:16

I hate to be the bearer of bad news and please don't think I'm being smug. But as I have 2 trades, electrician and gas engineer, I could switch jobs within 2 weeks.
I had an interview last week and got offered the job, but turned it down. Deciding to stay with my current employer.

My 22 year old apprentice is just about to buy his own house, he waited until after he'd paid his car off, going on my advice, before applying for a mortgage. Talking to him most days he has a lot of friends out of work.
The ones in his age group that are working are either in trade related work or some sort of call centre.

If your degree is in engineering, I would say try and get yourself enrolled in some sort of apprenticeship. This would add valuable practical skills.

JavaScriptDonkey · Post by **JavaScriptDonkey** » 21 Jun 2012, 18:56

Kentucky Fried Panda wrote:
If your degree is in engineering, I would say try and get yourself enrolled in some sort of apprenticeship. This would add valuable practical skills.

I think the chances of getting on an apprenticeship scheme when you have a degree are slight to nil.

I'm guessing Hector graduated last year and has been JSA ever since.

My advice is to find a job and live your life as best you can. No point worrying about a PO downside that might not be apparent for 5 or 10 years yet.

Hector88 · Post by **Hector88** » 25 Jun 2012, 23:16

Thanks for the advice and kind words people. It's just difficult going into the job centre, knowing that everything it's geared up to do - indeed, everything that most of the major political parties aspire to - is to expand an economy which has been defunct for a number of years. I hear of positive (or at least realistic) things: Transition Towns, Dark Mountain Project, Freeconomy, Incredible Edible etc., and I'm not saying any of those projects present the only way we should be progressing, but when I tell people about them, their views tend to go along the lines of 'oh, that looks nice, but really we need investment in the economy.' The same bullshit is being spouted by all the politicians and very few seem to have the guts to accept that the systems we've lived by for the last x amount of time are now not suitable.

The future: not as it was promised to be?

The future: not as it was promised to be?

Re: The future: not as it was promised to be?