Greece Watch...

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 18 Jun 2012, 09:29

All early gains now completely reversed as of 9:30am. Footsie into negative now. Of course, it could shoot back up 2% on the back of some minuscule piece of information.

Some people think that markets are some kind of bloody oracle. What they are actually like is an hysterical child. Nothing has changed in the last hour and yet the buggers have raced up by 1% and then dived straight back down when, presumably, they didn't like the view. And, of course, the brokers make a killing at both ends.

Back to square one.

and off to work for me.....

nexus · Post by **nexus** » 18 Jun 2012, 11:13

New Democracy won by the very slightest of margins on the back of two things;

1) An unprecedented and undemocratic media intervention by other countries' governments into the democratic process in Greece.

2) The arbitrary numbers relating to the ratio of young people to old people at this particular moment in time in Greece. You do know, of course, that the under fifties voted for Syriza in a large majority?

Good analysis, Steve.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 18 Jun 2012, 13:06

The Independent - 18/06/12

Greek voices: 'We just feel betrayed. We are the EU's scapegoats'

Article continues ...

In a Chelsea garden square, architect and property developer Alexandros Philipou was equally pessimistic about what will happen to his country once the votes have been counted.

"Despite all the drummed-up hype from the Anglo-Saxon media, it will be, irrespective of the result, plus ça change. The more alert of the Greek electorate, despite their deeply emotive nature, realise that the bitter medicine of austerity is being imposed without an accompanying long-term package that will deliver real growth. The electorate accepts that a socio-economic transformation has to take place inside Greece. They are willing to shoulder that burden."

However, he said, an "austerity exercise" is being delivered without justice. "The Greeks feel betrayed and are being made scapegoats in this whole pan-European chess game. Germany, the driver of this austerity process, has to get the message that singular austerity does not work. There have to be real measures for sustainable growth across the whole EU. If not they will have a rebellion on their hands."

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 18 Jun 2012, 14:23

Wall Street look set to open at least 50 points down. Which usually means that the Footsie will head further down itself as it follows the Dow.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 18 Jun 2012, 14:35

Dow dropping like a knackered lift. I expect the Footsie will follow.

Got to get back to work......

JavaScriptDonkey · Post by **JavaScriptDonkey** » 18 Jun 2012, 21:29

stevecook172001 wrote:The way in which you have phrased the above might suggest<SNIP>

I didn't make a prediction as to who would win the Greek election.

The point that you entirely missed is that the self interest of the various groups within Greek society has resulted in a lack of a clear majority for anyone.

Lots of individuals have voted for whatever they think will suit them. No one gives a monkey's about paying off their national debt - they see that responsibility as belonging to everyone else.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 18 Jun 2012, 21:45

JavaScriptDonkey wrote:
stevecook172001 wrote:The way in which you have phrased the above might suggest<SNIP>
I didn't make a prediction as to who would win the Greek election.

The point that you entirely missed is that the self interest of the various groups within Greek society has resulted in a lack of a clear majority for anyone.

Lots of individuals have voted for whatever they think will suit them. No one gives a monkey's about paying off their national debt - they see that responsibility as belonging to everyone else.

Obviously.

However, I would be interested to to hear in more specific detail the moral argument implied in your post as to the reason why any individual Greek should feel morally obligated to pay for the debts of his irresponsible neighbor that was initially born by their bank and that subsequently have been taken on by the Greek state without the democratic consent of the Greek people. Or, even if such democratic permission had been sought and obtained, why those who did not give such permission should feel morally (or indeed, statutorily obligated) obligated to pay for the fuckwittery of others beyond the basic shared societal bargain in any civilized society to help out those who are in dire need.

Actually it's even worse than the above since it is not merely today's citizens who have been burdened with the bad decisions of others, it is citizens yet to be born.

On what moral basis do you consider that they should be so burdened?

Regarding the other debt's; Those that were already on the State's books in the form of previous state borrowings to fund state spending, there is a more solid argument that can be made for the Greek people being so burdened. But, that is as far as it goes. And, even then, this argument falls down insofar as there is an expectation that generations, as yet to be born, should shoulder this burden.

If you were to f*ck up with your finances, do you think it morally right that the authorities could pass your bad debt on to your kids or, even worse, onto your grandkids as yet to be born? If not, then I would be obliged if you could explain how this straightforward moral imperative suddenly ceases to be applicable when it is multiplied a thousand fold to the level of the state.

In short, I'd be extremely obliged if you might explain how it is "every man for himself", "red in tooth and claw", "free-market", "f*ck you Jack I'm alright" capitalism on the way up but, on the way down, we are apparently "all in this together, ".

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 19 Jun 2012, 03:30

Cartoon courtesy of The Independent - 19/06/12

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 19 Jun 2012, 07:07

The Guardian - 19/06/12

Greece is heading for hell, thanks to the EU's botched handling of the crisis

We now have a debt structure that will lead to ructions between the EU, the IMF and a Greece asked to consent to suicide.

Article continues ...

The EU has refused to deal with the eurozone crisis through radical measures such as debt cancellation and wholesale reorganisation of the monetary union. Instead it has mollycoddled the banks and imposed harsh austerity.

The crisis is thus entering a more complex and dangerous phase that will again play out in Greece in the first instance.

SleeperService · Post by **SleeperService** » 19 Jun 2012, 08:54

Steve - spot on

The sad reality is that this could have gone the other way. In that event a managed collapse could have been engineered, as it is the can is about six months down the road (at best) and the assets to have a soft landing won't be there anymore.

Where are the benevolent aliens when you need them

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 19 Jun 2012, 10:04

stevecook172001 wrote:[why any individual Greek should feel morally obligated to pay for the debts of his irresponsible neighbor that was initially born by their bank and that subsequently have been taken on by the Greek state without the democratic consent of the Greek people. Or, even if such democratic permission had been sought and obtained, why those who did not give such permission should feel morally (or indeed, statutorily obligated) obligated to pay for the fuckwittery of others beyond the basic shared societal bargain in any civilized society to help out those who are in dire need.

Actually it's even worse than the above since it is not merely today's citizens who have been burdened with the bad decisions of others, it is citizens yet to be born.

On what moral basis do you consider that they should be so burdened?

Regarding the other debt's; Those that were already on the State's books in the form of previous state borrowings to fund state spending, there is a more solid argument that can be made for the Greek people being so burdened. But, that is as far as it goes. And, even then, this argument falls down insofar as there is an expectation that generations, as yet to be born, should shoulder this burden.

If you were to f*ck up with your finances, do you think it morally right that the authorities could pass your bad debt on to your kids or, even worse, onto your grandkids as yet to be born? If not, then I would be obliged if you could explain how this straightforward moral imperative suddenly ceases to be applicable when it is multiplied a thousand fold to the level of the state.

In short, I'd be extremely obliged if you might explain how it is "every man for himself", "red in tooth and claw", "free-market", "f*ck you Jack I'm alright" capitalism on the way up but, on the way down, we are apparently "all in this together, ".

I think you have summed it up nicely, even rather generously, Steve.

I look forward to reading yours and similar further posts as the true extent of the situation reveals itself.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 19 Jun 2012, 18:08

The Guardian - 19/06/12

Germany set to allow eurozone bailout fund to buy troubled countries' debt

Angela Merkel poised to remove opposition to direct lending by rescue fund in move seen as step towards sharing debt burden.

Article continues ...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Jun 2012, 18:50

Aurora wrote:
The Guardian - 19/06/12

Germany set to allow eurozone bailout fund to buy troubled countries' debt

Angela Merkel poised to remove opposition to direct lending by rescue fund in move seen as step towards sharing debt burden.

Article continues ...

So the Germans blinked first. Chickens....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGUYsuYudVA

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 19 Jun 2012, 19:57

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Aurora wrote:
The Guardian - 19/06/12

Germany set to allow eurozone bailout fund to buy troubled countries' debt

Angela Merkel poised to remove opposition to direct lending by rescue fund in move seen as step towards sharing debt burden.

Article continues ...
So the Germans blinked first. Chickens....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGUYsuYudVA

It now remains to be seen how the German people react.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 19 Jun 2012, 20:07

I really don't get all of this.

There is no way that the ECB has got enough money to buy up enough of the bonds of the stricken club med countries in order to keep them afloat unless it buys them with IOUs that it has issued to itself. In which case the debts of citizens that have been passed onto sovereign states who themselves have been passing them on to the wider EU super state in the form of loans/bailouts etc will ultimastely be have to be settled by the ECB. The thing is, the people at the bottom will never be able to repay the debts, nor will the sovereign states, nor will the ECB.

So what then?

Seriously?

Does the ECB, at some point, simply fire up the presses and inflate it all way?

Or what?

An inflationary bust seems to me to be more and more the likely outcome to all of this. The EU project engineers, in a desperate bid to keep their construction afloat, are quite prepared to drag the people of Europe into the furnace.

To be fair to Merkel, she doesn't appear to have wanted to take this path, but has been pressured into it by other world leaders.