Greece Watch...

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 17 Jun 2012, 07:33

The Independent - 17/06/12

Savers start a 'jog' on Europe's banks as Greece votes

Savers across Europe are fleeing the continent's debt crisis. In Europe's most economically stricken countries, people are taking their money out of banks as a way to protect their savings from the continent's growing financial storm.

Worried that their savings could be devalued, or that banks are on the verge of collapse and that governments cannot make good on deposit insurance, people in Greece, Spain and beyond are withdrawing euros by the billions – behaviour that is magnifying their countries' financial problems.

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Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 17 Jun 2012, 15:03

The Guardian - 17/06/12

Greek elections: Greece returns to the polls - live coverage

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Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 17 Jun 2012, 16:13

The Guardian - 17/06/12

Greek elections will not mean the end of hardship, whatever the result

Many ordinary Greeks say things are likely to get worse before they get better, but a new spirit of solidarity brings some hope.

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raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 17 Jun 2012, 18:12

More good commentary over at the Automatic Earth

Ilargi wrote:It's sort of funny to realize that if the Greeks today elect SYRIZA, it’ll be the first time in a long, long history that they vote to move away from feudalism and dictatorships. And that move is presented to them, and to us, as the worst one possible. It's an old song: history gets turned on its head for the sake of money and profits. That's undoubtedly also why western media label the party "extreme left".

More: http://theautomaticearth.com/Finance/wh ... erest.html

Particularly interesting is the final paragraph:

Ilargi wrote: Greece has one thing going for it: because dictatorialism, and the abject poverty it brought along, ended so recently, people largely still know how to take care of themselves. The same goes for Spain, Italy and Portugal. Not in Milan or Barcelona, but certainly in the countryside. You won't find that in Britain or Holland or most of Germany and France. It may be the biggest blessing they could hope for. And they might be much better off entering the inevitable next phase with Tsipras than with another Papandreou or Karamanlis, or heaven forbid another military regime. They haven't exactly had a fair and square deal for the past hundred years or so.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Jun 2012, 19:00

The exit polls are in and they are too close to call - Syriza and New Democracy within 1% of each other. That means we're going to have to wait a few more hours before we know who is going to get the 50 bonus seats for winning, which will determine who is going to be the prime minister and the biggest party in the coalition. But I think it is now certain that the new Greek government will be a coalition containing Syriza, New Democracy and probably PASOK too. That's because I think all of those parties believe that the bailout/austerity deal can be successfully renegotiated after what has happened in Spain, and that the more fully representative of the Greek people the Greek government is, the more weight they'll have behind them in what will be the toughest round of negotiations any of them have ever had anything to do with.

The thing is though...the outcome of those negotiations are so crucial to so many people not directly involved in them that it is also inevitable that much of it will take place in public. We're going to have more "microphone diplomacy", with everyone and their dog chipping in, and all the time the markets will be responding. Expect extreme brinkmanship.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 17 Jun 2012, 21:32

UndercoverElephant wrote:The exit polls are in and they are too close to call - Syriza and New Democracy within 1% of each other. That means we're going to have to wait a few more hours before we know who is going to get the 50 bonus seats for winning, which will determine who is going to be the prime minister and the biggest party in the coalition. But I think it is now certain that the new Greek government will be a coalition containing Syriza, New Democracy and probably PASOK too. That's because I think all of those parties believe that the bailout/austerity deal can be successfully renegotiated after what has happened in Spain, and that the more fully representative of the Greek people the Greek government is, the more weight they'll have behind them in what will be the toughest round of negotiations any of them have ever had anything to do with.

The thing is though...the outcome of those negotiations are so crucial to so many people not directly involved in them that it is also inevitable that much of it will take place in public. We're going to have more "microphone diplomacy", with everyone and their dog chipping in, and all the time the markets will be responding. Expect extreme brinkmanship.

Just been wathcing the BBC News.

New Democracy have been declared the winner by a very tight margin. Syriza have officially conceded defeat.

Pasok (broadly pro-bailout/austerity measures) have indicated they will work with New Democracy, but have hinted that they wish Syriza to be in the coalition. However, Syriza have in the last few minutes confirmed they will absolutely refuse to work with any of the pro-bailout parties and so have de-facto resolutely ruled themselves out of working in a coalition with either New Democracy and/or Pasok.

The new democracy leader has just made a statement on Greek TV with the usual blah-blah-blah you typically hear from a winning candidate. However, tellingly, while he has made expected statements along the lines of "...this is a victory for all of Europe..." etc, he has assiduously not made any mention of a re-negotiation (however, mild such negotiations might be) of the bailout terms, as was one of the central planks of New Democracy's election campaign. This will surely not go down well with those voters who were persuaded to vote for New Democracy on the basis that they would be provide a middle-ground between those who would advocate full bailout compliance and those, like Syriza, who would advocate full rejection of the bailout terms.

Finally, there was a Greek pollster on who came out with some very interesting information. It turns out that voters under fifty voted for Syriza as the winning party by nearly 10% margin. Whereas, those over fifty, voted for New Democracy as the winning party by 15%. There's a massive demographic split that has opened up in the politics of Greece.

Where the hell it goes from here and how stock markets will react on Monday I have not got a clue. We basically seem to be exactly where we were on Friday.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 17 Jun 2012, 21:40

BBC News - 17/06/12

Greece election: pro-bailout right to attempt coalition

The leader of Greece's pro-bailout New Democracy party, set to win most seats in a general election, says he wants to form a government as soon as possible.

Antonis Samaras said Greeks had voted to stay in the euro, and called for a "national salvation government".

The leader of the anti-bailout Syriza party, Alexis Tsipras, which came a close second, agreed Mr Samaras should be first to try to to form a coalition.

Greece's future in the euro could depend on the coalition talks.

With 60% of votes counted, interior ministry projections put New Democracy on 30.1% of the vote (130 seats), Syriza on 26.5% (70) and the socialist Pasok on 12.6% (33).

New Democracy leader Mr Samaras said: "The Greek people voted today to stay on the European course and remain in the eurozone.

"There will be no more adventures. Greece's place in Europe will not be put in doubt."

"The sacrifices of the Greek people will bring the country back to prosperity," he promised.

He also said Greece would "honour its obligations".

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Syriza has lost the election.

In that most young Greeks supported this anti-austerity party, I think the country will now witness a tidal wave of civil unrest.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Jun 2012, 21:45

stevecook172001 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:The exit polls are in and they are too close to call - Syriza and New Democracy within 1% of each other. That means we're going to have to wait a few more hours before we know who is going to get the 50 bonus seats for winning, which will determine who is going to be the prime minister and the biggest party in the coalition. But I think it is now certain that the new Greek government will be a coalition containing Syriza, New Democracy and probably PASOK too. That's because I think all of those parties believe that the bailout/austerity deal can be successfully renegotiated after what has happened in Spain, and that the more fully representative of the Greek people the Greek government is, the more weight they'll have behind them in what will be the toughest round of negotiations any of them have ever had anything to do with.

The thing is though...the outcome of those negotiations are so crucial to so many people not directly involved in them that it is also inevitable that much of it will take place in public. We're going to have more "microphone diplomacy", with everyone and their dog chipping in, and all the time the markets will be responding. Expect extreme brinkmanship.
Just been wathcing the BBC News.

New Democracy have been declared the winner by a very tight margin. Syriza have officially conceded defeat.

Pasok (broadly pro-bailout/austerity measures) have indicated they will work with New Democracy, but have hinted that they wish Syriza to be in the coalition. However, Syriza have in the last few minutes confirmed they will absolutely refuse to work with any of the pro-bailout parties and so have de-facto resolutely ruled themselves out of working in a coalition with either New Democracy and/or Pasok.

Well, I was right about the microphone diplomacy....

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 17 Jun 2012, 22:13

I imagine that older Greeks relying on the public sector pensions have more to lose if a default happens.

Younger voters have got nothing to lose by voting for the leftwing parties.

Whatever new government is formed will face huge opposition to further cuts/reforms and I suspect UE that you are right that the young may go on the streets to protest.

I still think that Greece will exit within six months of the Euro. The real question is whether the Germans will pull out at a certain point of the Euro.

http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/370821

Friday, June 15, 7:56 PM Marc Faber thinks the final outcome of the Greek elections will be that the Greeks will decide not to leave the eurozone, and the problems will just be postponed because they won't implement the austerity measures expected of them. There will be a breakup over time, but, more than likely, it will be Germany that will become frustrated and eventually exit the eurozone themselves. (video)

So far correct Mr Doom!

JavaScriptDonkey · Post by **JavaScriptDonkey** » 17 Jun 2012, 23:19

As predicted, self interest wins.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 17 Jun 2012, 23:33

JavaScriptDonkey wrote:As predicted, self interest wins.

The way in which you have phrased the above might suggest to anyone, who did not know the actual results, that the parties representing "self interest", as defined by you, had won by a landslide. They didn't win by a landslide. They won by a midges dick.

In any event, working on the entirely reasonable assumption that people will vote according to self-interest, it still did not automatically follow that the New democracy would win. I can assure you that the young voted in large part for Syriza based on their own self interest. In other words, they presumably do not wish to be burdened with the debts born of the f*ckwittery of their older generations.

New Democracy won by the very slightest of margins on the back of two things;

1) An unprecedented and undemocratic media intervention by other countries' governments into the democratic process in Greece.

2) The arbitrary numbers relating to the ratio of young people to old people at this particular moment in time in Greece. You do know, of course, that the under fifties voted for Syriza in a large majority?

You have basically set up a false dichotomy by asserting that this election result is some kind of expression of "self interest" as if that concept has some kind of "universal" logic to it; as opposed, presumably, to anyone who did not vote in a "self interested" way, as defined by you.

Your definition of self interest merely happens to match your own prejudices.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 18 Jun 2012, 07:11

Reminds me of "tactical voting", as if people knew what others are voting, or the tactics wouldn't work. Or "the police are asking to motorists to stagger their journeys", where people would have to know what others were doing in advance.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 18 Jun 2012, 07:15

Cartoon courtesy of The Independent - 18/06/12

Cartoon courtesy of The Guardian - 18/06/12

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 18 Jun 2012, 09:07

The Guardian - 18/06/12

World stock markets were propelled higher on Monday morning on relief that pro-bailout parties in Greece had secured a narrow victory in the election re-run over the weekend.

But there was concern that the rally would prove shortlived, amid continued fears that debt-laden Greece will ultimately be forced out of the eurozone.

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To quote George Osborne - "I was shocked. Shocked."

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 18 Jun 2012, 09:11

Aurora wrote:
The Guardian - 18/06/12

World stock markets were propelled higher on Monday morning on relief that pro-bailout parties in Greece had secured a narrow victory in the election re-run over the weekend.

But there was concern that the rally would prove shortlived, amid continued fears that debt-laden Greece will ultimately be forced out of the eurozone.

Article continues ...
To quote George Osborne - "I was shocked. Shocked."

Footsie already on the slide. Nearly two thirds of early trading rises now reversed and it's not yet 9:30am. Well, that was a sustained rally....not

It's all getting silly now.