"Huge oil find in Gulf of Mexico" they say

[Totally_Baffled]

Chris - one more question for you.

Is there any hope or expectation of any significant deep water finds in the north sea?

If this is a genuinely new frontier - then are they looking in the NS at similiar depths?

[Joe]

The North Sea doesn't go that deep... http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... ymetry.jpg

[Totally_Baffled]

The North Sea doesn't go that deep... http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... ymetry.jpg

Well that answers that question emphatically!

They better not try , they would bend their drill bits!

[Joe]

[clv101]

If its a whole new frontier - I wonder how they came to 140gb? considering this an estimate for a substantial % of the earths surface! (and that potentially over 10% has been found in one discovery!)

That's a fair point... I wonder how one estimates potential deep water discoveries. However it's not really a substantial % of the Earth?s surface though. Most deep water is over thin non-sedimentary crust making oil impossible, I think deep water over potential oil formations (source rock, reservoir rock, cap rock, trap etc) is very rare.

[Joe]

That's a fair point... I wonder how one estimates potential deep water discoveries.

Not the answer, but a relevant story: http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/news/rels/031606.html

[biffvernon]

The North Sea doesn't go that deep

No, but west of Scotland, where it's called the Atlantic Margin, it gets deeper.

Info here: http://www.ukooa.co.uk/issues/Afen/v0000313.htm

[frankd2689]

From Energy Bulletin http://www.energybulletin.net/index.php

Clarification of the Huge Chevron Gulf Oil Discovery
by Randy Kirk

The September 5th announcement by Chevron and Devon and Statoil of the huge Gulf of Mexico discovery should be clarified. The announcement claims that the discovery could increase US proven reserves of oil by as much as 50%. However, the total amounts are highly speculative. Additionally, the discovery likely won't impact oil markets but could potentially impact natural gas markets since the discovery is probably mainly natural gas. The area will not come online for at least 4 years and, at a full rate, for at least 7 years. Further, it is likely that there are political motivations behind the announcement, as the vote to open offshore drilling in the United States is upcoming in the US Senate.

1. The range of amount -- from 3 billion to 15 billion (in itself a huge range -- reserves of Exxon Mobile are around 14 billion barrels total) is comprised of no single field of more than 300 million barrels. An entire area of as much as 15 billion barrels with no "giant" over 1 Bn bar oil field is unusual. Oil discoveries tend to cluster with a giant (King) and several queens and even more jacks.

2. The area is very deep: 7000 feet of seawater and a further 20,000 feet below the ground. That is about 3 miles below the surface, in 1+ miles of deep water. The normal time to accurately estimate oil and gas field size is months. These fields are more challenging because of the extreme depths. It is therefore likely that very little is known with certainty about the potential reserves from a geological standpoint.

3. Production will not start, at the very earliest, at 2010. Full production, will not start at the very earliest 2013. Many projects are being delayed so these dates are most likely the best possible scenario.

4. The wells are located in deep water and will not be served by underground GOM pipelines. The oil will be pumped directly to tankers. Pipelines are faster and more efficient, and tankers will put a higher price and limited the amount of oil pumped out.

5. The wells are most likely mainly natural gas, as they are very deep. All estimates are in barrels of oil equivalent. Oil tends to form closer to the surface, gas deeper. Therefore the discovery is likely to impact natural gas markets, not oil, if the gas exists in meaningful quantities.

6. The US Senate is weeks away from voting on the lifting of the 25-year ban on offshore drilling off the majority of the coasts in the US. This offshore drilling bill was approved in the Congress but political analysts believe the bill will face more opposition in the Senate. The oil industry stands to make high profits if Congress will open up Florida and the Offshore East coast to drilling. To date the offshore drilling bill has not been approved by both houses because of environmental interests. A large potential oil ?discovery? in the Gulf would provide evidence that the passing of the offshore oil bill would be beneficial.

7. Related to point #6, the announcement is reminiscent of the Mexican "huge oil discovery" announced last year, of a possible 10 billion barrels, which was quietly revised this year to around 43 million barrels, a downward revision of 99.57%. This similar "discovery" was made in Mexico last year a few months before the Mexican parliament was to vote on Pemex (state oil co)'s budget and rights to expand drilling. This illustrates the potential political pressure to announce oil and gas discoveries.

8. The wells are estimated to cost between $80M to $120M each, starting in 2010, and a completion time of 60 days. Payback period with gas at $7 is about 3 to 5 years (by my rough calculations). Although it is likely that some new technical issues will be likely be needed to be resolved as the depth is approaching record levels. Further, insurance rates at these depths in the Gulf will likely be very high ? the rough payback period here doesn?t include insurance costs.

[hatchelt]

For all you Alex jones fans:

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/Se ... urated.htm

[Vortex]

I have spent the last half hour Googling "deep water oil" to see if there is any difference between land and deep-sea geologies ... with not a lot of success.

I did however see hints that successful test bores are rare (1-in-8 or so) and that even successful deep sea reservoirs fade out very quickly.

cvl101 said:
>> Most deep water is over thin non-sedimentary crust making oil impossible, I think deep water over potential oil formations (source rock, reservoir rock, cap rock, trap etc) is very rare.

So ... is the deep-sea geological environment very special/different?

Or is it simply a pig to reach, but with the possibility of underwater Saudi Arabias lurking?

If there are in fact gadzillions of barrels of oil down there, then we might be "saved" (for a while) ... but the oil will be expensive!

Any geologists out there who can explain about ocean floors and oil?

[Joe]

Any geologists out there who can explain about ocean floors and oil?

Interesting article about the geology of the Gulf of Mexico and why it might be likely to bear oil at such great depths: http://energybulletin.net/20455.html

[Totally_Baffled]

Any geologists out there who can explain about ocean floors and oil?

Interesting article about the geology of the Gulf of Mexico and why it might be likely to bear oil at such great depths: http://energybulletin.net/20455.html

Interesting article -I scanned over it for information on what are the implications for finding oil at such depths in other areas of the world.

It doesnt seem to go into that ?

Is oil at this depth unique to the GOM?

[Joe]

Is oil at this depth unique to the GOM?

Well the specific conditions that have allowed the GoM to bear oil at depths outside of the usual oil window would certainly seem to make it less likely to occur elsewhere, but "unique?" - you'd have to ask someone far more knowledgeable than me.

[Blue Peter]

Anyone know what sort of EROEI these deep water fields have?


Peter.