Greece Watch...

[Lord Beria3]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... shots.html

The coalition building against German Chancellor Angela Merkel is speckled. The British, Italians, and Poles are wary of relaxing fiscal austerity. They want the ECB to print money and take all risk of sovereign default off the table with unlimited bond purchases. The French want Keynesian spending. The Spanish want ECB action and a slower fiscal squeeze.

Between them they make up five of the EU's 'Big Six'. Their shared goal is to end the contractionary policy mix that has aborted Europe's recovery and tipped the South into 1930s debt-deflation. Mrs Merkel is "extremely isolated", said Greece's radical Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras.

Giles Merritt, head of the Brussels think-tank Friends of Europe, said the mood is ugly in the corridors of EU power. "The sheer anger directed against Angela Merkel is starting to shake the Germans for the first time. They are beginning to understand how deeply unpopular they have become, and how little time they have to act. The pressure from Beijing and Washington is mounting," he said.

It is not clear what Mrs Merkel can concede. Germany's constitutional court has ruled that the budgetary powers of the Bundestag cannot be alienated to any EU body, implying that Eurobonds might breach the Basic Law.

A change to the ECB mandate requires a treaty change and a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag. While quantitative easing is legal under current treaties, it would set off a political storm in Germany.

All objections are surmountable. Germany can amend its constitution. Yet it is a daunting step to cross the Rubicon to fiscal union, with deep implications for democracy. Just as the Greek people must look deep into their souls this June, so must the German people

This is all strangely gripping - can Germany accept the consequences of joining the Euro?

[biffvernon]

What I don't understand is how we can stand, teetering, on the edge of the cliff, without falling over it.

Reminder: the global economy is closely bound to oil production. Oil production is about at it's peak.

The west is teetering because:
1. We need growth in oil production, which then allows the economy to grow, but it stopped growing in 2005.
2. BRICs are out-competing the west in the oil auction, which allows their economies to grow. With oil production on the plateaus it's a zero-sum game so western economies have to shrink.

We all fall off the cliff when the oil production decline sets in. No more teetering then.

[UndercoverElephant]

What I don't understand is how we can stand, teetering, on the edge of the cliff, without falling over it.

Reminder: the global economy is closely bound to oil production. Oil production is about at it's peak.

The west is teetering because:
1. We need growth in oil production, which then allows the economy to grow, but it stopped growing in 2005.
2. BRICs are out-competing the west in the oil auction, which allows their economies to grow. With oil production on the plateaus it's a zero-sum game so western economies have to shrink.

What happened was the the global economy had its back broken in 2008 and everything since then has been a grand game of reality-denial.

We all fall off the cliff when the oil production decline sets in. No more teetering then.

No. We fall off the cliff when the reality denial can continue no longer, and we are VERY close to that point. Peak Oil is the long-term story. The short-term story is about the banks, and the nature of our monetary and political systems.

[UndercoverElephant]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... shots.html

The coalition building against German Chancellor Angela Merkel is speckled. The British, Italians, and Poles are wary of relaxing fiscal austerity. They want the ECB to print money and take all risk of sovereign default off the table with unlimited bond purchases. The French want Keynesian spending. The Spanish want ECB action and a slower fiscal squeeze.

Between them they make up five of the EU's 'Big Six'. Their shared goal is to end the contractionary policy mix that has aborted Europe's recovery and tipped the South into 1930s debt-deflation. Mrs Merkel is "extremely isolated", said Greece's radical Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras.

Giles Merritt, head of the Brussels think-tank Friends of Europe, said the mood is ugly in the corridors of EU power. "The sheer anger directed against Angela Merkel is starting to shake the Germans for the first time. They are beginning to understand how deeply unpopular they have become, and how little time they have to act. The pressure from Beijing and Washington is mounting," he said.

It is not clear what Mrs Merkel can concede. Germany's constitutional court has ruled that the budgetary powers of the Bundestag cannot be alienated to any EU body, implying that Eurobonds might breach the Basic Law.

A change to the ECB mandate requires a treaty change and a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag. While quantitative easing is legal under current treaties, it would set off a political storm in Germany.

All objections are surmountable. Germany can amend its constitution. Yet it is a daunting step to cross the Rubicon to fiscal union, with deep implications for democracy. Just as the Greek people must look deep into their souls this June, so must the German people

This is all strangely gripping - can Germany accept the consequences of joining the Euro?

Nothing strange about it being gripping. The people who have run the world in their own interests for the last 50 years are terrified, because their stranglehold on power is slipping, and there's nothing they can do about it.

It's all very gripping
When the stranglehold is slipping
With oil production dipping
Into abyss we're tipping!

[leroy]

They might badger me for levies, taxes, charges, blood, flesh and compliance but I will do my best to subvert their badgering without wasting too much of my short life on it.

That is a truly inspired statement emordnilap. Goes with the 'we are all mayflies' insight recently made by Kenneal. Great thread- reminds me how good PS can be. Tilthing the allotment this pm to put in some late sowings- the latent heat of the day thick with birdsong. Our humanity is all we have to protect, the rest is words.

[emordnilap]

The real tragedy is, there's millions of people that still think, once we're over this rough patch, things will eventually return to normal.

Patch? Return to normal? You really are a card. What I don't understand is how we can stand, teetering, on the edge of the cliff, without falling over it.

'Patch'? Plateau more like., in which case it's a patch of high ground.

I'm getting the feeling that it's not so much a cliff edge, as a road high in the mountains, where you can see the road ahead starts to decline but there's no telling what the gradient will be - you only know that it's a long way down.

We'll be on the descent sometime soon, worry not.

[emordnilap]

Tilthing the allotment this pm to put in some late sowings- the latent heat of the day thick with birdsong. Our humanity is all we have to protect, the rest is words.

Precise-ament. May is my favourite month - such an optimistic time.

[UndercoverElephant]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18073793

Funding shortages appear to be leading Greek hospitals to get tough with patients who are not entitled to free healthcare - but when patients are broke there is no easy solution. One new mother says she was told she wouldn't be allowed to take her baby home after giving birth.

When the Athens maternity hospital where Anna gave birth asked her to pay for the costs of her Caesarean section, she told them she did not have the 1,200 euros (£970, $1,500) they wanted.

They responded, she says, by threatening to keep hold of her baby until she paid the full amount.

[emordnilap]

In a more enlightened time, a bartering system will have to do for doctoring (thinking of the hermit in Scotland as well as the above poor girl), rather than cash, and doctors will have to be happy that they can eat in exchange for their services.

Illness may be riskier when those times arrive; charging money for illness is a different type of risk, one we need to eliminate.

[emordnilap]

Here's a HardTalk interview with someone I have gained a lot of respect for lately - Steve Keen (he was a speaker at the JustBanking conference).

He talks a lot of sense - "I'm not against capitalism, I'm against capitalism parasiting itself, which happens when we let the financial sector take over and generate far more debt than we need."

Some of you may have seen this, it's from November 2011. In it, he advocates "bankrupting the banks, nationalising the financial system and paying off people's debt". Exactly. Hear fecking hear Steve.

[kenneal - lagger]

That's probably going to happen anyway, sooner or later.

[Tarrel]

In a more enlightened time, a bartering system will have to do for doctoring (thinking of the hermit in Scotland as well as the above poor girl), rather than cash, and doctors will have to be happy that they can eat in exchange for their services.

Illness may be riskier when those times arrive; charging money for illness is a different type of risk, one we need to eliminate.

I imagine that medical care will always carry some kind of premium, whatever the exchange mechanism in use at the time. Maybe doctors (and dentists) in the near future will receive a greater share of meat, or will be expected to work fewer hours in the fields.

Perhaps it was always thus.

[UndercoverElephant]

Here's a HardTalk interview with someone I have gained a lot of respect for lately - Steve Keen (he was a speaker at the JustBanking conference).

He talks a lot of sense - "I'm not against capitalism, I'm against capitalism parasiting itself, which happens when we let the financial sector take over and generate far more debt than we need."

Some of you may have seen this, it's from November 2011. In it, he advocates "bankrupting the banks, nationalising the financial system and paying off people's debt". Exactly. Hear fecking hear Steve.

Yep. After this financial crisis is over, there will be no justification whatsover in having privately owned banks. I wouldn't be surprised if the eventual carnage leads to pretty much every bank on the planet going bust.

[emordnilap]

Here's a HardTalk interview with someone I have gained a lot of respect for lately - Steve Keen (he was a speaker at the JustBanking conference).

He talks a lot of sense - "I'm not against capitalism, I'm against capitalism parasiting itself, which happens when we let the financial sector take over and generate far more debt than we need."

Some of you may have seen this, it's from November 2011. In it, he advocates "bankrupting the banks, nationalising the financial system and paying off people's debt". Exactly. Hear fecking hear Steve.

Yep. After this financial crisis is over, there will be no justification whatsover in having privately owned banks. I wouldn't be surprised if the eventual carnage leads to pretty much every bank on the planet going bust.

Your man has a hard time (well, I suppose it is Hardtalk) trying to get his point across on occasion - she's not a great interviewer, cutting across him all the time like she does. He does well to stay as calm as he does but I think he gets there in the end.

Now, I'd vote for him...

[JavaScriptDonkey]

I imagine that medical care will always carry some kind of premium, whatever the exchange mechanism in use at the time. Maybe doctors (and dentists) in the near future will receive a greater share of meat, or will be expected to work fewer hours in the fields.

Perhaps it was always thus.

Save me from your Utopia.