Now it is Ireland's turn to reject the austerity fantasy

[Aurora]

The Guardian - 10/05/12

France and Greece have shown it is possible to resist this ideology. This month the Irish too may vote to stop 'behaving'.

Article continues ...

[biffvernon]

It's a bit early to learn what happens when austerity is resisted. I rather suspect that austerity will, nevertheless, ensue.

[Tarrel]

The debt has to come down. Only this way lies the possibility of moving to a zero-growth economy. At the moment, output has to rise exponentially to match the exponential rise in debt obligation. If we try to achieve zero or low growth without reducing our debt, we will run out of cash and end up defaulting.

I happen to think mass defaults may be the only viable way of hitting the "reset" button.

[UndercoverElephant]

It's a bit early to learn what happens when austerity is resisted. I rather suspect that austerity will, nevertheless, ensue.

Not all austerity is the same.

[UndercoverElephant]

The debt has to come down. Only this way lies the possibility of moving to a zero-growth economy. At the moment, output has to rise exponentially to match the exponential rise in debt obligation. If we try to achieve zero or low growth without reducing our debt, we will run out of cash and end up defaulting.

I happen to think mass defaults may be the only viable way of hitting the "reset" button.

Outside of the eurozone I think that inflation may be the preferred option of the decision-makers. Inside the eurozone that's not politically possible. The Germans are terrified of hyperinflation.

[SleeperService]

The debt has to come down. Only this way lies the possibility of moving to a zero-growth economy. At the moment, output has to rise exponentially to match the exponential rise in debt obligation. If we try to achieve zero or low growth without reducing our debt, we will run out of cash and end up defaulting.

I happen to think mass defaults may be the only viable way of hitting the "reset" button.

Outside of the eurozone I think that inflation may be the preferred option of the decision-makers. Inside the eurozone that's not politically possible. The Germans are terrified of hyperinflation.

Because they remember what happened last time

[emordnilap]

The Guardian - 10/05/12

France and Greece have shown it is possible to resist this ideology. This month the Irish too may vote to stop 'behaving'.

Article continues ...

Austerity is here and building. Saying 'no' in this referendum merely means they might have to have another referendum, when we can then vote 'yes'.

The referendum is a technicality required by our constitution. Our leaders and betters have already agreed to the terms of the treaty.

[UndercoverElephant]

The Guardian - 10/05/12

France and Greece have shown it is possible to resist this ideology. This month the Irish too may vote to stop 'behaving'.

Article continues ...

Austerity is here and building. Saying 'no' in this referendum merely means they might have to have another referendum, when we can then vote 'yes'.

The referendum is a technicality required by our constitution. Our leaders and betters have already agreed to the terms of the treaty.

So had the ex-government of Greece and the ex-President of France.

If Spain defaults, Ireland will follow.

[emordnilap]

Our leaders and betters have already agreed to the terms of the treaty.

So had the ex-government of Greece and the ex-President of France.

If Spain defaults, Ireland will follow.

Unfortunately, we seem unwilling to get rid of our government.

Whatever, I hope you're right.

[UndercoverElephant]

Our leaders and betters have already agreed to the terms of the treaty.

So had the ex-government of Greece and the ex-President of France.

If Spain defaults, Ireland will follow.

Unfortunately, we seem unwilling to get rid of our government.

Whatever, I hope you're right.

I believe the people of Ireland will not put up with other people escaping from unpayable debt loads while they remain debt slaves. They don't want to be seen to be the ones causing the trouble, but once the walls are breached by Greece and Spain then I'm convinced they will follow.

[emordnilap]

I believe the people of Ireland will not put up with other people escaping from unpayable debt loads while they remain debt slaves. They don't want to be seen to be the ones causing the trouble, but once the walls are breached by Greece and Spain then I'm convinced they will follow.

I'm not convinced; the anger is not widespread enough; don't forget, this is still a fairly diffuse, somewhat classless society, with rich living alongside poor without general overt resentment. The jobless are likewise diffuse, supported in part by working relatives and partners. This is also why this government has got away with it so far.

I still hope you're right, though.

[mallow]

I think there are a few things going on in Ireland. One is simply the recognition of how powerless such a small country is in the context of the global economy - it makes people pretty passive and that's understandable. One is that Irish people hugely buy into the myth of progress - having seen the country develop so rapidly over the past 40 years they're sure that this crisis is a temporary stumbling block, like the 80's turned out to be. The memory of the 80's is another reason - people believe we got out of that through austerity and that's how we got the celtic tiger. So a substantial number at least are willing to believe that that will work again. Another reason I think is fear. There's poverty not far back in the majority of Irish families and there's a real dread of going back there for most. So they really need to believe that this is just a temporary storm to be ridden out.

Our particular brand of politics and nationalism is another reason. It's not that Ireland is any more classless than anywhere else (we actually have high levels of wealth and income inequality, to use a basic marker) but our political history is overwhelmingly that of anti-imperialist nationalism, not class politics of any kind. Because our nationalism as it developed was defined in binary terms as replacing a monarchical, aristocratic system with a republic, Irish people tend to believe that independence therefore abolished class. 'Class' seems to be understood only by comparison with the UK - something like 'posh people vs. underclass'. It's about the formalities and the trappings rather than any economic or political reality. The absence of hereditary titles, the monarchy, old aristocratic families and their institutions, schools, homes etc. tends to mislead both Irish people themselves and observers from the UK.

Irish nationalism then helps governments to impose austerity because it prevents people from even recognising the existence of class. 'We're all in this together' might not ring absolutely true for people, but most have no alternative framework to nationalism through which to understand austerity, or politics in general. For all those reasons, I suspect they'll submit to pretty much whatever they're told to in order to bring prosperity back.

[UndercoverElephant]

There can be no prosperity for Ireland so long as it remains in a currency union with Germany. Well...there's not going to be much prosperity for anybody after peak oil, but being locked in a currency union with Germany makes it worse.

There's a fundamental misunderstanding here, and that is the belief that the only reason Germany is not in economic trouble itself is because the Germans are more efficient than everybody else. They undoubtedly are very good at certain sorts of manufacturing, but they are being helped all the time by the fact that they are using a currency which is shared by the rest of the eurozone countries, which makes German exports cheaper than they would be if Germany was using the Mark.

[UndercoverElephant]

Having said all that, I suspect Irish public opinion will respond depending on what actually happens to the Greeks.

[emordnilap]

For all those reasons, I suspect they'll submit to pretty much whatever they're told to in order to bring prosperity back.

Sadly, I think you're right.

Combine it with a sense of powerlessness - spectacularly borne out by the Lisbon treaty debacle - and you have everyone under the thumb.