Tuesday 12 Jan 2066

[ArowxGames]

After reading about peak oil and the collapse of our civilisation. I have been on a 'Chicken Little' the sky is falling, OMG! kind of experience for the past 10 years.

And there are lots of books and businesses out there to fuel the fear, combined with the apparent blanket head in the sand media none-coverage of Peak Oil, sorry Credit Crunch/Recession.

But then I thought OK oil is running out but when will it actually run out.

Tuesday 12 Jan 2066

Relax we can keep doing business as usual (prices will rise I know) until then (and we'll be causing catastrophic climate changes).

Is it accurate well it's based on the information in the CIA world fact book and a simple excel calculation. It assumes that we continue to use up oil at our current rate and the reserve figures are accurate.

It has allowed me to stop panicking, I'm 40 now I won't be around in 2066.

[the_lyniezian]

Presumably there will be no steady continuous supply of oil which will suddenly hit a cliff-drop in 2066.

Rather it will decline gradually.

Which will mean we have to start thinking about how to adapt to less oil sooner, but also perhaps gives us some time to do so.

Maybe it won't be gradual enough for the latter though...

[Lord Beria3]

Rather daft question, I would have thought you would be making preps many years before 2066!

[adam2]

I doubt that we will EVER completly run out of oil.
A determined enough search, prompted by a high enough oil price should always find a little more.
There is growing evidence that oil production has already peaked and is declining. That means the rate of production will decline, therefore the known and yet to be discovered reserves will be used at an ever decreasing rate.

There are oil wells in Texas that have produced for 100 years, though now producing only a few barrels a day.
It is likely that some of these wells will still be able to produce oil in 2066, though at a still lower rate.
Many other oil wells have been shut in, not because they are completly empty, but because the low yield did not justify continued operation. They could be readily restored to use if the price was high enough.

The total oil production by 2066 is virtualy certain to be a tiny fraction of that produced today, but I believe that there will still be some.
Probably far too costly to use as we do today.

[UndercoverElephant]

Daft, yes.

The Great Decline will be measured in living standards, not quantity of oil available. And it has already started. In most parts of the world, most people's living standards are already falling, and everything points to that fall continuing for a very long time.

[ArowxGames]

It's a simple look at the Oil left, and rate of use.

I'm not speculating on the price market fluctuations or how long relatively tiny isolated pockets of oil that the world would drain in a matter of seconds at the worlds current rate of usage will last.

What I'm interested in is the big picture given what we know now and our current usage when will it run out.

Tuesday 12 January 2066

I would speculate that this is an optimistic date as a lot of countries and companies have increased their 'oil reserves' figures over time.

I'd love to have access to 100% accurate data but I don't so I can only use what I have.

Think of it as a line in the sand, past this date Oil as an affordable disposable fuel will cease to exist.

[the_lyniezian]

Assuming we've already hit peak oil and are on the downslope, then that means we're not going to be able to manage society based on our present rates of oil consumption. Add to that an increasing global poulation and growing economies in some of the most populated parts of the world (China, India) which will lead to them requiring even greater energy/resource consumption than hitherto, and you have an even bigger problem. Metaphorically speaking, the pie is getting smaller, more dinner guests are arriving and many of them are demanding bigger slices.

So I think we're going to have to start worrying about the effects of diminishing oil supply even before you hypothetical date when proven reserves actually run out. Which might be sooner than we think.

[Lord Beria3]

Assuming we've already hit peak oil and are on the downslope, then that means we're not going to be able to manage society based on our present rates of oil consumption. Add to that an increasing global poulation and growing economies in some of the most populated parts of the world (China, India) which will lead to them requiring even greater energy/resource consumption than hitherto, and you have an even bigger problem. Metaphorically speaking, the pie is getting smaller, more dinner guests are arriving and many of them are demanding bigger slices.

So I think we're going to have to start worrying about the effects of diminishing oil supply even before you hypothetical date when proven reserves actually run out. Which might be sooner than we think.

+1

[snow hope]

There aren't enough reply choices for me to answer the way I would want.

My view is that if 2066 is the last day of oil, then we should have started thinking about this problem 20 or 30 years ago as Hirsch pointed out. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report

Most of us here know we have been on the plateau since 2005 - thats 7 years now! The world is doing its damndest not to show actual decline, but it will become obvious very soon in my opinion. Once we see that, then we are on the long slippery slope.

But its much worse than that in reality. Firstly, as soon as the decline curve starts to show, oil prices will step up another level - maybe as much as $200/barrel or even more. And yes, demand destruction will result, but the price will stay high due to reducing supply. Secondly and somewhat linked to the previous reason, Chindia's demand is still growing dramatically - a third of the world's population has the growing expectation that one day they may have a car to drive in. Can you guess what that will do to demand for our black gold?

Thirdly, as supply declines the export land model will come into play and national countries will decide to reduce exports as they might want to keep some black gold for their sons and daughters, never mind their own growing, thirsty populations.

Fourthly, as some people say, we will go to WAR. But of course the people on here know we went to war over oil, back in 2002 - with pretty spectacular results in fact. The "West" have established bases all over the Middle East and are ready to access more of their oil which is under other peoples' sand when the time comes. And of course the 1st Gulf War was over oil too. But WAR may get a lot worse and become World War as the bigger players become embroiled.

So in the absence of other choices, I chose Panic Now!

[snow hope]

It has allowed me to stop panicking, I'm 40 now I won't be around in 2066.

Sorry to be the harbinger of doom Arowx, but having read this again, I think you have become a little deluded on the subject. I mean no offense, but say this to try and wake you up a second time. Whilst the world may not collapse tomorrow, I think to imagine things the way you have described, is almost a full reversal from your chicken little viewpoint and has returned to a head in the sand position. If that is what it takes for you to get by.... then fair enough I can understand, but I really don't think it is a reasonable description of what is to come. Can I suggest that the way to handle panic, might be to do bits and pieces that gradually help you to prepare for the changes that will likely come.

I am a good 10 years older than you and I KNOW it will impact me. Just saying.....

[Norm]

I would be 116 years old!

[RenewableCandy]

I shall make sure people will be able to get to my 104th birthday party later that year, without having to drive.

[ArowxGames]

We just need to reinvent fire...

http://www.ted.com/talks/amory_lovins_a ... nergy.html

[frank_begbie]

Assuming we've already hit peak oil and are on the downslope, then that means we're not going to be able to manage society based on our present rates of oil consumption. Add to that an increasing global poulation and growing economies in some of the most populated parts of the world (China, India) which will lead to them requiring even greater energy/resource consumption than hitherto, and you have an even bigger problem. Metaphorically speaking, the pie is getting smaller, more dinner guests are arriving and many of them are demanding bigger slices.

So I think we're going to have to start worrying about the effects of diminishing oil supply even before you hypothetical date when proven reserves actually run out. Which might be sooner than we think.

And some of the cheeky sods haven't got tickets!

[Aurora]

I shall make sure people will be able to get to my 104th birthday party later that year, without having to drive.

How about a few of these?