We allow joblessness to rise at our peril
Moderator: Peak Moderation
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woodburner
- Posts: 4124
- Joined: 06 Apr 2009, 22:45
Very good Steve. I have what I have in material terms mostly because of good luck. I could have done "better" but for the bad decisions I made. Te one good decision was to start buying a house in 1974 (early 20s). My brother has done "better" than me by starting to buy around six to seven years earlier, (that was luck from being born earlier) and working hard, and making better decisions.
There are some people who were lucky enough to buy on a rising market since, but our children have little hope of being able to buy a house, with a combined income of between £25k and £30k they are looking at a house price of £200k+ for what I bought for £10k.
A neighbour has not realised what's coming yet. He bought for £250k expects to spend around £100k on expansion then sell for more than £400k in a year or two. I think this might be one of his bad decisions, though it seems houses are still being traded as if house prices will rise well above inflation for ever.
There are some people who were lucky enough to buy on a rising market since, but our children have little hope of being able to buy a house, with a combined income of between £25k and £30k they are looking at a house price of £200k+ for what I bought for £10k.
A neighbour has not realised what's coming yet. He bought for £250k expects to spend around £100k on expansion then sell for more than £400k in a year or two. I think this might be one of his bad decisions, though it seems houses are still being traded as if house prices will rise well above inflation for ever.
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stumuzz
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stumuzz
A well written and thoughtful post Steve.
As you would expect I don’t agree with most of it!
To précis what you said: people born at a certain time were just lucky; young people today will never be that lucky; fiat money system raised asset prices; the young will have to pay the raised assest price even though they will not be able to? Social safety net will not be there for the young, a bit like the US.
Well, having two daughters 19 and 23 I see them enjoying, planning and preparing for their futures just like I did and probably like the person in your halcyon days example.
You have also missed the fact that your mythical pensioner is paying now. Annuities are on their arse, company pensions are going bust and no interest on savings are hitting pensioners quite hard.
However, you seem to have missed the point of my post. If you believe you are going to be a victim then you will be. Most of the young I meet do not think like that. They are full of hope for the future.
This forum has rays of genius, but most people (mostly middle aged men) come here for the doom. They love it; it is almost like a drug for them. They have nothing to offer, especially to the young (whom sensibly do not post here)
We are living through the most interesting epoch in modern times. Enjoy.
As you would expect I don’t agree with most of it!
To précis what you said: people born at a certain time were just lucky; young people today will never be that lucky; fiat money system raised asset prices; the young will have to pay the raised assest price even though they will not be able to? Social safety net will not be there for the young, a bit like the US.
Well, having two daughters 19 and 23 I see them enjoying, planning and preparing for their futures just like I did and probably like the person in your halcyon days example.
You have also missed the fact that your mythical pensioner is paying now. Annuities are on their arse, company pensions are going bust and no interest on savings are hitting pensioners quite hard.
However, you seem to have missed the point of my post. If you believe you are going to be a victim then you will be. Most of the young I meet do not think like that. They are full of hope for the future.
This forum has rays of genius, but most people (mostly middle aged men) come here for the doom. They love it; it is almost like a drug for them. They have nothing to offer, especially to the young (whom sensibly do not post here)
We are living through the most interesting epoch in modern times. Enjoy.
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SleeperService
- Posts: 1104
- Joined: 02 May 2011, 23:35
- Location: Nottingham UK
Sorry stumuzz but I think steve is just about spot on.
His pensioner (my dad's generation) brought their annuities several years ago. I did the figures a couple of months ago and need to pay 20%+ of my salary to match what he got for 5%. Steve is right we're going to find everything increasingly expensive.
Most of the youngsters I know are not hopeful of the future as we've come to expect it to be ie. BAU. A significant number haven't learnt to drive as they can't afford the insurance let alone other costs. That reduces their mobility and thus earning potential. They are more aware of how fortunate they are compared to those in other countries.
Why middle aged posters, easy question, we're the ones who choose and have time to post. Younger people don't use forums as a rule unless they have a specific interest in something. My younger nephews are very aware of how things are because they all read newspapers, and not the 'rags'. In their age range 12 to 22 they're not unusual.
I've been helping out at their school recently and the number of pupils who aren't going to university is surprising. Why? They have older relatives who did and find themselves in minimum wages jobs and are learning from that experience.
His pensioner (my dad's generation) brought their annuities several years ago. I did the figures a couple of months ago and need to pay 20%+ of my salary to match what he got for 5%. Steve is right we're going to find everything increasingly expensive.
Most of the youngsters I know are not hopeful of the future as we've come to expect it to be ie. BAU. A significant number haven't learnt to drive as they can't afford the insurance let alone other costs. That reduces their mobility and thus earning potential. They are more aware of how fortunate they are compared to those in other countries.
Why middle aged posters, easy question, we're the ones who choose and have time to post. Younger people don't use forums as a rule unless they have a specific interest in something. My younger nephews are very aware of how things are because they all read newspapers, and not the 'rags'. In their age range 12 to 22 they're not unusual.
I've been helping out at their school recently and the number of pupils who aren't going to university is surprising. Why? They have older relatives who did and find themselves in minimum wages jobs and are learning from that experience.
Scarcity is the new black
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stumuzz
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frank_begbie
- Posts: 817
- Joined: 18 Aug 2010, 12:01
- Location: Cheshire
As steve says, we're just buying time at the moment.
Its like when you put that big Gas Bill behind the clock on the mantelpiece.
"I'll pay it next week"
Its like when you put that big Gas Bill behind the clock on the mantelpiece.
"I'll pay it next week"
"In the beginning of a change, the patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated, and scorned. When his cause succeeds however, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot."
I think Steve et al are talking about 'young people' in general. Stumuzz is talking about his family and people of similar character and abilities.
In any society there will always be winners. Being talented and hard working greatly increases the chances of being a winner. However, in a future of declining resources where the leaders of society are refusing to acknowledge and prepare infrastructure and people for lower levels of material comfort, it is inevitable that the 'also rans' will do much worse than their parent's generation.
I am intelligent and well educated but like Woodburner, my relative affluence is largely the result of being born at the right time, because I coasted through my education and made some bad decisions in my career. Doors have consistently opened for me that I didn't really deserve. My adopted children are not blessed with my level of intelligence, and are extremely unlikely to reach the same level of education that I did, although of course I am doing my best for them. In practice the only chance they have of a 'comfortable' living standard is by providing them with inherited wealth of the old fashioned kind, in property.
I am, of course, teaching them an attitude of making the most of what is available, and to be prepared for a low resource future.
In any society there will always be winners. Being talented and hard working greatly increases the chances of being a winner. However, in a future of declining resources where the leaders of society are refusing to acknowledge and prepare infrastructure and people for lower levels of material comfort, it is inevitable that the 'also rans' will do much worse than their parent's generation.
I am intelligent and well educated but like Woodburner, my relative affluence is largely the result of being born at the right time, because I coasted through my education and made some bad decisions in my career. Doors have consistently opened for me that I didn't really deserve. My adopted children are not blessed with my level of intelligence, and are extremely unlikely to reach the same level of education that I did, although of course I am doing my best for them. In practice the only chance they have of a 'comfortable' living standard is by providing them with inherited wealth of the old fashioned kind, in property.
I am, of course, teaching them an attitude of making the most of what is available, and to be prepared for a low resource future.
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SleeperService
- Posts: 1104
- Joined: 02 May 2011, 23:35
- Location: Nottingham UK
I'm not headed for penury, unless things fall apart completely that is.stumuzz wrote:Well, get used to a life of penury. Hope you enjoy it. I have no intention of joining you. Good luck.SleeperService wrote:Sorry stumuzz but I think steve is just about spot on.
The example I gave is based on my starting work today rather than in 1977. Are we really to believe that everything is 25% as profitable as it was? Or is it that profits are being diverted elsewhere from MY investment?
Accepting Ralph's point above and elaborating a bit. One of the groups I was working with were perfect Secondary Modern/ apprenticeship material. Except that with 'one size fits all education' they've been led to expect that university/academia is the only way ahead. That sort of nonsense needs to stop.
Fortunately the school is now self governing and they are going to stream pupils again. That won't help those who've already suffered but the newer pupils are 'lucky'
By encouraging older people like me to help maybe they'll be better equipped for the future.If I can offer one tip Ralph add 'Openmindedness' to your list of young people's skills. My recent experience suggests that isn't as prevelant as we'd hope.
Scarcity is the new black
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woodpecker
- Posts: 851
- Joined: 06 Jan 2009, 01:20
- Location: London
Qualified as a solicitor or as a barrister?stumuzz wrote:
PS.
This will make me even more unpopular than I already am.
Eldest daughter qualified in law two years ago and is working for ..... A bank
Lawyers are ten a penny these days. Many of the young law graduates are swallowed up by the big mortgage operators, get disillusioned by the factory atmosphere, then leave. Some go into commercial practice for a couple of years, then decide that working like dogs until midnight doesn't really do it for them. A huge number of people who complete the Law Society exams now work in anything-but-law, including many who have worked in law. I've even employed one ex-solicitor as an office admin.
The only happy lawyers I know are barristers - who control their own workload, and are focused on stuff they enjoy - and senior academics (likewise).
Last edited by woodpecker on 10 Apr 2012, 12:38, edited 1 time in total.
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woodpecker
- Posts: 851
- Joined: 06 Jan 2009, 01:20
- Location: London
Steve, I seem to recall making some similar posts in the last couple of years... 
Even more extreme versions of the story in my own family, our friends, my colleagues etc. e.g. woman who has never paid *any* mortgage (but her husband left her, and left her a £1,000 house) sold her semi-detached house in an ordinary London suburb for £1.5m. Woman who paid maximum mortgage of £13.5k, for a short period, and in a low-wage job, amassed property worth £2m through various accidents of history. Man who took early retirement (50) from ordinary job at BT (when they were still running a final salary pension scheme) walked away with £100+k cash tax free lump sum plus pension of £30k pa for life plus house in ordinary suburb (Bromley) now worth £1m+, having done nothing more than joined the 'incumbent telecoms operator' as a technician, and stuck it out for enough years, and bought an ordinary house in an ordinary place near work when he got married. There's a hundred thousand+ just like him, just in that company.
This was the generation of easy money. All you needed to do was sit still, and the money would flow in.
"It's funny, isn't it Stumuzz, how humans have a habit of ascribing the bad things that happen as "bad luck" and the good things that happen as down to their "hard work and ingenuity" "
This phenomenon is described very well by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his books describing his experiences in the financial markets. As he says, traders invariably ascribe favourable outcomes to their own high level of competence, and adverse outcomes to bad luck. They fail to see that the favourable outcomes are also down to luck. In case anyone doubts his credentials for so commenting, here's his bio:
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/CV.htm
Even more extreme versions of the story in my own family, our friends, my colleagues etc. e.g. woman who has never paid *any* mortgage (but her husband left her, and left her a £1,000 house) sold her semi-detached house in an ordinary London suburb for £1.5m. Woman who paid maximum mortgage of £13.5k, for a short period, and in a low-wage job, amassed property worth £2m through various accidents of history. Man who took early retirement (50) from ordinary job at BT (when they were still running a final salary pension scheme) walked away with £100+k cash tax free lump sum plus pension of £30k pa for life plus house in ordinary suburb (Bromley) now worth £1m+, having done nothing more than joined the 'incumbent telecoms operator' as a technician, and stuck it out for enough years, and bought an ordinary house in an ordinary place near work when he got married. There's a hundred thousand+ just like him, just in that company.
This was the generation of easy money. All you needed to do was sit still, and the money would flow in.
"It's funny, isn't it Stumuzz, how humans have a habit of ascribing the bad things that happen as "bad luck" and the good things that happen as down to their "hard work and ingenuity" "
This phenomenon is described very well by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his books describing his experiences in the financial markets. As he says, traders invariably ascribe favourable outcomes to their own high level of competence, and adverse outcomes to bad luck. They fail to see that the favourable outcomes are also down to luck. In case anyone doubts his credentials for so commenting, here's his bio:
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/CV.htm
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UndercoverElephant
- Posts: 13499
- Joined: 10 Mar 2008, 00:00
- Location: UK
Slight quibble. I'd say the people born just before and during that war were the luckiest, followed by the baby boomers. The main difference is that those born 1935-1945 are already comfortably retired, and the boomers aren't, and many never will be.stevecook172001 wrote:
People who were born in the West just post the 2nd world war were the luckiest generation alive, ever.
I agreed with everything else you wrote in that very long and informative post.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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UndercoverElephant
- Posts: 13499
- Joined: 10 Mar 2008, 00:00
- Location: UK
If my recent experience of solicitors is anything to go by, they don't deserve to be happy. They are a bunch of immoral, money-grabbing, bottom-feeding, power-crazy c***s. They think nothing of buggering up their own client's cases in order to fill their own wallets. They live in their own little world, where the normal rules of society do not apply, just like the banksters.woodpecker wrote:
The only happy lawyers I know are barristers - who control their own workload, and are focused on stuff they enjoy - and senior academics (likewise).
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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featherstick
- Posts: 1324
- Joined: 05 Mar 2010, 14:40
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stumuzz
You crack me up U/E you really doUndercoverElephant wrote: They are a bunch of immoral, money-grabbing, bottom-feeding, power-crazy c***s. They think nothing of buggering up their own client's cases in order to fill their own wallets. They live in their own little world, where the normal rules of society do not apply, just like the banksters.
We need more harmless eccentrics. Keep up the entertainment.