Article in the Money Morning daily e-mail on Peak Oil.
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/16933/pre ... xpert.html
Prepare for Peak Oil says energy expert Ali Samsan Bakhtiari
Moderator: Peak Moderation
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SarahSimcock
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Wow, that's a pretty good article in a decent publication.
?Whether we like it or not,? said Bakhtiari in a recent posting, ?all developed societies are addicted to crude oil and its myriad derivatives.? However, he continues, ?Many decision-makers are trying to park ?Peak Oil? in the farthest corner of their minds (praying it will go away), and remain in denial that there is no replacement for oil.? Bakhtiari amplified this comment in another discussion:
?Nobody likes the idea of Peak Oil. Firstly, you have the politicians. Naturally, a politician will never say that there is such a thing as Peak Oil. It is suicide to give bad news, so a politician will never do that?Secondly you have the media. The media do not like Peak Oil. Why? There is no sponsorship for Peak Oil. The oil companies do not like Peak Oil because you should not say that your soup is cold; you should always say that it is very hot and very tasty, yes? So nobody wants to hear of this phenomenon of Peak Oil.?
I liked the no nonsense approach to preparations...
Good advice that we should all take steps towards...Peak oil: how to prepare
Bakhtiari has a ?to-do list? of what he considers to be the most urgent steps for governments, businesses, and private individuals. His list is worth highlighting here:
(1) Reprogram the mind. That is, just throw out any previous business-as-usual thinking and similar rosy scenarios. Nothing will remain as usual, going forward. This also means that people should engage in as much lateral thinking as possible. Do not just come up with Plan B, but come up with Plans C, D, and E as well. People should challenge themselves, and their associates, not just to expect the unexpected, but to begin thinking the unthinkable.
(2) Reduce oil consumption, mercilessly. According to Bakhtiari, the normal 30% of wasted use should be shed offhand. Governments, businesses, and individuals should also pay down debt levels as swiftly as possible, because the effects of T1 will inevitably bring higher inflation and interest rates. Minimize travel of all sorts to economize use of oil-derived fuels, because it is going to happen in any case. Reduce all types of consumption and just plain get leaner and be ready for even bigger cuts. This is as close to where you live as revising home lighting and heating systems, and also includes reducing the size and number of automobiles as soon as possible.
(3) Reuse as much as possible. Many things are easily reusable, but it will require a mental focus to accomplish the effort. Whether it is plastic bags or retreaded tires or outdated appliances, it is important to adopt a new cultural mind-set toward the scarcity of manufactured goods and products. The most important thing to care for and husband may well be fresh water, which is already in short supply and will almost certainly be a precious commodity in the future. Bakhtiari even mentions wood as a future critical commodity.
(4) Recycle as much as possible. Bakhtiari believes that tomorrow?s industrial boom will be in recycling industries on a worldwide scale. Recycling much of what is now considered garbage should be made mandatory, as in Germany or a handful of U.S. cities, such as Seattle and Pittsburgh. Industrial production should design ?recycling? into products from the time they are on the drawing board, as is now the case in some sectors of the automobile and computer industries, as well as some other business sectors.
(5) Reward people for their efforts. Bakhtiari urges using market incentives to reward people for reducing, reusing, or recycling. It is far better to make use of positive subsidies, instead of negative reinforcement. The implications of Peak Oil are negative enough even without the prospect of negative reinforcement.
Hello this is my first post and I wonder if someone could help clear up a bit of confusion. I read the Australian Senate transcript of 11 July 2006 (which I downloaded from the news section a few weeks ago) and Dr Bakhtiari clearly states that world crude output is currently 81 million barrels a day, give or take 1 million.
Elsewhere daily ouput is said to be about 84 million so which number is right? I was very impressed by Bakhtiari, surely he of all people would know the right figures.
His web site is quite interesting, found here
http://www.sfu.ca/~asamasamb/sb.htm
Elsewhere daily ouput is said to be about 84 million so which number is right? I was very impressed by Bakhtiari, surely he of all people would know the right figures.
His web site is quite interesting, found here
http://www.sfu.ca/~asamasamb/sb.htm
Depends where you draw the line. The 84 million is 'all liquids' (I think!) which includes various bibs and bobs on top of regular crude - such as: Natural Gas liquids ( the liquid fraction which gets produced by Natural Gas wells ) and 'refinery gains' - the increase in volume which comes from processing thick gunky hydrocarbons into something lighter and more useful.Kieran wrote:Hello this is my first post and I wonder if someone could help clear up a bit of confusion. I read the Australian Senate transcript of 11 July 2006 (which I downloaded from the news section a few weeks ago) and Dr Bakhtiari clearly states that world crude output is currently 81 million barrels a day, give or take 1 million.
Elsewhere daily ouput is said to be about 84 million so which number is right? I was very impressed by Bakhtiari, surely he of all people would know the right figures.
His web site is quite interesting, found here
http://www.sfu.ca/~asamasamb/sb.htm
... and of course, non-conventional. Crude oli produced ftom tar sands and Ultra Heavy (think Blackpool beach after an oil spill and Marmite)
If you look at any of the ASPO Newsletters (PDFs available from http://www.peakoil.ie/ ) you can see how ASPO break out these various categories of oil in their projections.
Thanks for that. To spare others the search it's http://www.sfu.ca/~asamsamb/sb.htmKieran wrote: His web site is quite interesting, found here
http://www.sfu.ca/~asamasamb/sb.htm
Thanks Again.