Rationing within a decade?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 19 Mar 2012, 15:58

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2 ... ing-europe

I have been predicting this for years, but I have been out on my timing until now. Why did I buy that 90 mpg diesel car?

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 19 Mar 2012, 16:16

RalphW wrote:http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2 ... ing-europe

I have been predicting this for years, but I have been out on my timing until now. Why did I buy that 90 mpg diesel car?

Basically, the "free-market" (as if it ever existed in the first place) is over. There's not going to be enough to go round. However, the illusion of a free-market has been the favoured method of control of the masses for at least a century now and certainly for the last few decades here in the West.

Our rulers have now got a bit of thorny problem in that they have become so used to using the free-market mantra on us that they are at a bit of a loss to know what to use instead. They seem to be toying with the old religious bullshit, but we have become too secular to fall for that as easily as we used to. Time will tell if that secularism can be redressed. I suspect it can if times get hard enough.

They’re obviously going to press on with the "enemy without" and "enemy within" tactic since that is a tried and tested strategy that has been used since, well...as long as we have had rulers.

This kind of rationing (or threat of rationing) brings closer the day when any pretence of the free-market will have to be dropped and we shall see what new fairy story they come up with to keep us all in our places.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 19 Mar 2012, 16:48

Preem is the biggest oil company in Sweden, with refining capacity of more than 18 million m3 of crude oil every year. Their two refineries are among the most modern, environmentally-friendly in Europe and the world

Eh?

Post by **adam2** » 19 Mar 2012, 17:10

I do not agree, I doubt that we will see rationing of diesel or other oil fuels in the lifetime of anyone alive today.

As supplies depete, oil and products made from oil become more expensive, this has already started.
As prices rise, some people can afford less, or even no fuel, this has already started.

What good would rationing do ?
It wont increase the total supply, which is determined largely by geology and partly by political factors.

Rationing wont reduce the price, which is determined by the balance between supply and demand.

The logistics of attempting rationing would put anyone off trying !
How much per head ?
Increased allowances required for
women (feel at risk on late night public transport)
large families (cant take 5 kids on the bus)
rural households (limited other transport)
the poor (cant afford trains)
those who work unsocial hours (limited public transport)
essiential workers (almost everyone in employment)
jews (might get beaten up by muslims)
muslims (might get beaten up by jews)
blacks (might get beaten up by whites)
whites (might get beaten up by blacks)

So that is pretty much every special interest group, and without even considering industry, how much for which industrys ?
A flat rate per employee, or per customer, or per £million of turnover ?
Or preferably something more complex, requiring a whole new department.
Would you ration heating oil ? if no, then vehicles WILL be run on heating oil. If YES, then thats not very fair on those with oil heating, unless gas and coal are also to be rationed.
And how would you stop people buying vegetable oil from the local shop and running diesel vehicles on it.

I suspect that some of those calling for rationing, are expecting a free handout in addition to what they can buy !

Somewhat O/T but many younger people believe that the wartime rations of food and fuel were free ! not a limitation on the amounts that could be purchased at the prevailing price.

Rationing IMHO only works for a short term emergency such as a war or natural disaster, when there is likely to be a limit on the total amount available.
Peak oil means higher prices, or in effect rationing by price, but does not imply physical shortages providing that one is able to outbid other potential consumers.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 19 Mar 2012, 17:17

adam2 wrote: ...
Rationing wont reduce the price, which is determined by the balance between supply and demand.

The logistics of attempting rationing would put anyone off trying !
...

Somewhat O/T but many younger people believe that the wartime rations of food and fuel were free ! not a limitation on the amounts that could be purchased at the prevailing price.

But surely rationing does affect supply and demand, because a limit is put on demand, which means that it is no good pushing your price too high? Very rich people might be able to pay a lot more for fuel, but, it's no good pushing your prices up, because they can still only buy a small percentage of what you sell.

And with regard to the logistics, the UK did manage it during WWII, so they can't be impossible to overcome/ignore,

Peter.

Mr. Fox · Post by **Mr. Fox** » 19 Mar 2012, 17:24

stevecook172001 wrote:Our rulers have now got a bit of thorny problem in that they have become so used to using the free-market mantra on us that they are at a bit of a loss to know what to use instead.

Baton Rounds? Tasers? CS gas?

Don't forget that according to that manta, old people freezing to death because they can't afford to heat their homes would simply be 'expressing their consumer preference in the marketplace'.

When they die of hypothermia, it's merely 'Demand Destruction' in action.

Post by **adam2** » 19 Mar 2012, 17:28

Rationing, if severe enough, could certainly affect UK demand for diesel, but that wont bring down prices .
The oil price is determined by the global supply/demand balance, and a slight reduction in a small country wont have a noticable effect globally.

A reduction in UK diesel demand wont bring down retail prices, or not noticably since the crude oil still costs as much, and the refining process still costs about the same as does distribution.
Despite the outrage of the motoring lobby, there is very little profit in making or retailing diesel and petrol. Thousands of filling stations have closed because they lost money, hardly a sign of profiteering.
A major UK refinery recently closed because it was loosing money.

Rationing worked fairly well in the last war, but that was a long time ago, before mass market motoring, and before the entitlement culture.
Some would suggest that government was more efficient in those days too.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 19 Mar 2012, 17:33

I would welcome rationing of fossil fuels. Some people use far less than their fair share and I support equality for all, rich and poor.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 19 Mar 2012, 17:55

As supplies depete, oil and products made from oil become more expensive, this has already started.

I had an interesting chat with my neighbour last summer. He has a farm, mostly sheep and arable. He was saying how everything he has to buy that's based on oil has shot up in price, from agro-chemicals right down to black silage bags. Not to mention fuel of course. Scotland had a very wet summer, so his fuel costs for grain-drying were horrendous.

By the way, I didn't realise that it is common modern farming practice to spray crops with a dilute solution of Roundup prior to harvest. It dehydrates the crop apparently, reducing the need for drying.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 19 Mar 2012, 18:01

stevecook172001 wrote: Our rulers have now got a bit of thorny problem in that they have become so used to using the free-market mantra on us that they are at a bit of a loss to know what to use instead. They seem to be toying with the old religious bullshit, but we have become too secular to fall for that as easily as we used to. Time will tell if that secularism can be redressed. I suspect it can if times get hard enough.

Making the unfashionable fashionable is a piece of p*** if the onslaught is pervasive enough. (I'm amazed how many "fashionable" people think it's them controlling fashion rather than vice versa.)

Check out this disturbing "4thought" stint by a self-styled Christian rapper:

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/4tho ... pisode-156

Note that he says nothing about ethics or beliefs, he just talks about church being "sick" and refers nebulously to Christ as "this gift".

The message: church is basically a big gang. A generation has grown up largely ignorant of the tenets of Christianity, so that when they're propositioned by people like this, they won't question whether religion should be about more than just belonging.

I'm ambivalent about religion, but I am sickened by its manipulation for political purposes. Of course, in times of crisis, it always has been.

Recently I was toying with the idea of joining the C of E, but the huge collection of poppies that now implicitly honours our recent war crimes in every churchyard makes it clear what direction the Church is going in.

"Man is infinitely malleable," as George Orwell wrote. A government that controls the media can mould the population to its will. There'll be 10% who insist on thinking for themselves, but that is low enough that they can simply be persecuted.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 19 Mar 2012, 18:04

Tarrel wrote:By the way, I didn't realise that it is common modern farming practice to spray crops with a dilute solution of Roundup prior to harvest. It dehydrates the crop apparently, reducing the need for drying.

I've heard this is the case, though admittedly we're not in a tillage area - it's all beef and, increasingly, (must have been some EU incentives recently) sheep.

One local organic grain producer reckons that, from dressing seed to storing to baking, wheat can be subject to around 100 chemicals. Lovely. But they would say that, wouldn't they?

ceti331 · Post by **ceti331** » 19 Mar 2012, 18:11

I see carbon taxes as a form of rationing.
my hypothesis is that global warming is used politically as a justification to get centralized control over remaining fuel resources; it can be taxed beyond the common man and reserved for state controlled aparatus.

Note I'm not a MMGW skeptic - I'm just speculating that this is why the average person has been conditioned to think you're talking about global warming when you mention fossil fuels.

woodpecker · Post by **woodpecker** » 19 Mar 2012, 18:53

Ludwig wrote:
stevecook172001 wrote: Our rulers have now got a bit of thorny problem in that they have become so used to using the free-market mantra on us that they are at a bit of a loss to know what to use instead. They seem to be toying with the old religious bullshit, but we have become too secular to fall for that as easily as we used to. Time will tell if that secularism can be redressed. I suspect it can if times get hard enough.
Making the unfashionable fashionable is a piece of p*** if the onslaught is pervasive enough. (I'm amazed how many "fashionable" people think it's them controlling fashion rather than vice versa.)

Check out this disturbing "4thought" stint by a self-styled Christian rapper:

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/4tho ... pisode-156

Note that he says nothing about ethics or beliefs, he just talks about church being "sick" and refers nebulously to Christ as "this gift".

The message: church is basically a big gang. A generation has grown up largely ignorant of the tenets of Christianity, so that when they're propositioned by people like this, they won't question whether religion should be about more than just belonging.

I'm ambivalent about religion, but I am sickened by its manipulation for political purposes. Of course, in times of crisis, it always has been.

Recently I was toying with the idea of joining the C of E, but the huge collection of poppies that now implicitly honours our recent war crimes in every churchyard makes it clear what direction the Church is going in.

"Man is infinitely malleable," as George Orwell wrote. A government that controls the media can mould the population to its will. There'll be 10% who insist on thinking for themselves, but that is low enough that they can simply be persecuted.

Ludwig, if you're going to join something, why not the Quakers? (UK variety) They seem far more sensible than any of the others.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 19 Mar 2012, 20:30

woodpecker wrote: Ludwig, if you're going to join something, why not the Quakers? (UK variety) They seem far more sensible than any of the others.

I attended a Quaker meeting a few years ago. I wasn't sure. Sitting in silence for an hour on an uncomfortable chair in a big draughty hall wasn't a massively spiritual experience for me. The people seemed nice, though. I may give it another try some time.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 19 Mar 2012, 22:30

Tarrel wrote:By the way, I didn't realise that it is common modern farming practice to spray crops with a dilute solution of Roundup prior to harvest. It dehydrates the crop apparently, reducing the need for drying.

Indeed. I thought the attitude of the farming industry to the routine use of antibiotics was bad. The use of glyphosates is another insane action http://www.non-gmoreport.com/articles/m ... te_use.php If your neighbour is using the technique you describe, perhaps he should read it.

I doubt the manufacturers have the desiccating use as a recommended use, if not it may be an illegal practice.

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