Replacing democracy

[hodson2k9]

The Spartans cooperated they made alliances, so did our ancestors they also conquered and exploited lots of the world

Yawns

[Mr. Fox]

The Spartans cooperated they made alliances, so did our ancestors they also conquered and exploited lots of the world

Well, exactly.

Will you be making any alliances? If so, on what basis?

[jonny2mad]

In a major collapse close friends and family, I think groups with strong ingroup outgroup boundary's are likely to be the only people to survive.

If you look at the die-off in places like easter Island their population dropped from 20,000 to about 100-150 people, if you look at the die-off of other animal species that went into die-off, like the deer on Matthew island they went from 6000 to 42 in a couple of years ,you could well get a die-off of 98% of the population in a real fast hard crash .

Much less people than you might imagine would be the possible sustainable population.

When you think what it means to survive a population crash of 98% in a very short period of time, or surviving something like a easter island type collapse, where your society is built on wood and you don't have anymore wood, so you go into a spiral of tribal violence and cannibalism

I think its unlikely that any transition type group would survive that because their likely to be too soft hearted, and will take in and try to care for too many people, they will try to be bonnobos when you would be better off being wolves or polar bears .

At the very best even if you get a slow collapse your going to see people getting poorer and poorer , its not going to be sharing out a big cake but sharing out a cake thats getting smaller all the time, where there isn't enough cake to go round and not getting cake means you starve.

[Mr. Fox]

In a major collapse close friends and family

OK. So, beyond cheese thievery, how many of the skills required to survive in the medium to long term can be provided from within that circle?

I'm trying to get a handle on how many of the 2% you think will be cheese thieves compared to conditional cooperators. Obviously, we'd have eaten the hippies by then.

[jonny2mad]

Well if I'm madly optimistic and we don't have a major nuclear war which I would say is most likely .

let say we just have a collapse of the financial system, famine, collapse of the political system etc etc, I'd think a very high percentage of the surviving 2% would be aggressive acquisitive people when they get the opportunity.

Especially in the early stages being tied trying to defend your eco village might be suicidal

How many of the skills required to survive in the medium to long term can be provided from within that circle?

I think quite a lot but its still a daunting prospect and I'd rather not be in the UK, because of the number of people who will most likely die here.

We have about 68 million people say it goes down to 2-6 million it could go lower than 2 million anyway we are talking 60 plus million dead through starvation and violent death in a few years thats my guess in a fast crash .

[ceti331]

wow.

And people call me a pessimist when I say "earth can only support 2billion without oil"

[SleeperService]

I think quite a lot but its still a daunting prospect and I'd rather not be in the UK, because of the number of people who will most likely die here.

We have about 68 million people say it goes down to 2-6 million it could go lower than 2 million anyway we are talking 60 plus million dead through starvation and violent death in a few years thats my guess in a fast crash .

That's a shocking number but, unfortunately, probabily realistic. I'd think that most urban orientated people wouldn't survive a month. That includes those who sleep in the country but whose work and social life is city based.

I'm a bit more optimistic for TT types as most of the population won't know where to find them and those with access to serious weapons least of all. Unless the Armed Forces go rogue which is the wild card in all such discussions.

[jonny2mad]

We had a 6 million population at about 1750 the start of the industrial revolution and that was the highest the UK population had ever been .

During the dark ages and around the time of the black death the population was about 2 million

we have our present population because of a incredible system thats dependent on imports and fossil fuels, our ancestors were great organic farmers and they couldn't support more than 6 million people using those sort of methods .

And we will be in a much much much worse position than ye 1750 people .

we don't have the implements, the horses, the skilled people, if we have mass starvation even if you have your little historic farm of the past you will likely get it raided by the starving .

I don't think it will be as easy as people think to put things into reverse. If this was new Zealand maybe somewhere with a much lower population, and if new Zealand really was able to defend its borders, and was made up of the sort of people who would blow up boats full of starving refugee baby's you might have a chance of avoiding dieoff and transitioning , but this country is made up of the sort of crazy fools who bring in additional millions into a already sinking lifeboat .

Your facing a disaster and being led by fools, I'm not sure of the timing it could be that what you call pessimists think its closer than it is, but I am certain of where its heading.

Anyway I'm certain our population will go lower than sustainable carrying capacity, I think its most likely the country will end up looking worse than easter island, ruins, skulls, no trees and waring cannibal tribes and thats likely to be pretty universal on most of the planet in fact thats me being a fluffy optimist, I'm talking the road but not as cheerful .

http://dieoff.org/dieoffindex.html thats the old die-off index I think jay hansen sees some of it but is to optimistic and cheerful, I think most of the posters on latoc and most of the other doomer sites are to optimistic and cheerful, I used to get the same sort of response on latoc as I get here.

eat apple turnovers while ye still can

[jonny2mad]

I think quite a lot but its still a daunting prospect and I'd rather not be in the UK, because of the number of people who will most likely die here.

We have about 68 million people say it goes down to 2-6 million it could go lower than 2 million anyway we are talking 60 plus million dead through starvation and violent death in a few years thats my guess in a fast crash .

I'm a bit more optimistic for TT types as most of the population won't know where to find them and those with access to serious weapons least of all. Unless the Armed Forces go rogue which is the wild card in all such discussions.

Ever been to a transition town meeting and talked about preparing for a fast crash I have, they are toast

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/20051

rob hopkins why survivalists have got it wrong ..... basically its all about how its wrong to flee a sinking titanic without trying help other people and more of the if its going to be that bad I'd rather be dead mantra ... I couldn't live with myself if I didn't try to save everyone .


I shake my head at their crazy beliefs

[emordnilap]

For me, peak oil and climate change, and the challenge that they present, are a call to return to society, to rebuild society, and to engage society in a process that can offer an oil free world as a step forward and an improved quality of life.

Naive on the face of it but wise words all the same.

[Ludwig]

I shake my head at their crazy beliefs

It's obvious that feeling for other human beings is beyond your comprehension. Therefore it seems crazy to you. You literally can't imagine what it must be like to care about other people, so you assume the impulse doesn't run very deep or isn't genuine.

Sorry if I'm misrepresenting you, but it's how you come across. It's quite obvious that you have been brutalised by your upbringing, but because you don't know anything else you don't realise it.

Perhaps in future everyone will be brutalised and so you will feel at home. That's clearly what you imply. Doesn't make you any less of a monster (though I realise you will regard that as a compliment).

[jonny2mad]

Well if he had said them in 1950 yup but its too late baby its too late

we are about to fall off a cliff and transition towns are to little to late

[jonny2mad]

I shake my head at their crazy beliefs

It's obvious that feeling for other human beings is beyond your comprehension. Therefore it seems crazy to you. You literally can't imagine what it must be like to care about other people, so you assume the impulse doesn't run very deep or isn't genuine.

Sorry if I'm misrepresenting you, but it's how you come across. It's quite obvious that you have been brutalised by your upbringing, but because you don't know anything else you don't realise it.

Perhaps in future everyone will be brutalised and so you will feel at home. That's clearly what you imply. Doesn't make you any less of a monster (though I realise you will regard that as a compliment).

When I was a little boy my father told me the story of a whaling ship that sunk and the captain had I think 30 men in a lifeboat that could hold 15, there was a storm so what he did was throw 15 men into the sea to drown , they were later picked up and he was put on trial for murder .

Now if he hadn't thrown 15 men into the sea no one would have survived, thats what Hopkins et all are trying to do their committing suicide for no real good but I suppose he thinks hes doing the good noble thing.

He will over load his groups and they will be overwhelmed, same as the country thats is near its maximum carrying capacity and doesn't blow up the boats full of starving baby's .

[hodson2k9]

[quote="jonny2mad"]

Your facing a disaster and being led by fools, I'm not sure of the timing it could be that what you call pessimists think its closer than it is, but I am certain of where its heading.
[quote/]

Dont you mean were facing a disaster! what makes you so confident your going to survive anyway?

[jonny2mad]

We all die at some point, and yup the odds are pretty high against anyone getting through the initial die-off