Europe's Debt Crisis

[kenneal - lagger]

This article in the Economist's blog explains why Europe, especially Club Med, is in so much trouble. The map below shows the world on the basis of government spending. Apparently Europe would be more bloated still if the government spending was confined to health and welfare.

[Aurora]

It can only get worse.

BBC News - 29/01/12

Greeks reject German plan for EU budget commissioner

Article continues ...

Mark Lowen, BBC News, Athens

In reality, Greece's finances are already to a large extent controlled by foreign forces. The debt-stricken country has received enormous bailouts from the EU and IMF conditional on deep cuts and fiscal reforms drawn up largely by officials in Brussels.

This new German proposal is clearly prompted by the widespread concerns that Greece is not succeeding in bringing its budget into order. Reforms have been slow and the budget deficit remains above target.

But ceding more control to Brussels would be deeply unpopular here. Most Greeks are against the austerity programme demanded by the EU and IMF.

And much popular anger is directed at Germany as Europe's paymaster general. The fact that Berlin has raised this latest plan won't soften sentiments here.

[SleeperService]

This looks more and more like a rerun of the South Sea Bubble for the 21st Century.

When this lot goes wrong we're really fooked aren't we?

[Lord Beria3]

This looks more and more like a rerun of the South Sea Bubble for the 21st Century.

When this lot goes wrong we're really fooked aren't we?

Not necessarily, southern Europe yes, but the rest of the world no.

Saying that, there is massive debt in the UK, America, France, Japan and so on, Greece is just a grotesque example.

[ceti331]

what the F--k were they thinking, accumulating so much debt

[woodburner]

They were creaming off the money, that's why the auditors haven't approved the EU accounts for well over a decade.

[kenneal - lagger]

what the **** were they thinking, accumulating so much debt

They weren't, not in the long term anyway. Greek political parties got themselves elected by bribing the Greek people. The party who offered the most got in. The parties were only thinking how they could get to the next election and get re-elected. Someone would have to pay it off in the end but it wouldn't be just yet! Just hope repayment time doesn't come on your watch!

It must be a cultural thing because most of Club Med is suffering from the same problem. Manana! with a cedilla: only the Greeks don't have a word which conveys quite the same urgency (so my Greek friends tell me)!!

[Aurora]

20 Signs That Europe Is Plunging Into A Full-Blown Economic Depression

Before It's News - 30/01/12

#1 The unemployment rate for those between the ages of 16 and 24 is 28 percent in Italy, 43 percent in Greece and 51 percent in Spain.

#2 Overall, the unemployment rate for those under the age of 25 in the EU is 22.7 percent.

#3 Citigroup is projecting that the economy of Portugal will shrink by 5.7 percent this year.

#4 The total of all forms of debt in Portugal (government, business and consumer) is equivalent to 360 percent of GDP.

#5 The Greek "recession" is now entering a fifth year.

#6 The Greek economy shrank by 6 percent during 2011.

#7 It is being projected that the Greek economy will shrink by another 5 percent during 2012.

#8 The overall unemployment rate in Greece is now 18.5 percent.

#9 In Greece, 20 percent of all retail stores have been permanently shut down.

#10 The number of suicides in Greece rose by 40 percent in just one recent 12 month time period.

#11 According to the IMF, the amount of debt accumulated by the Greek government is equal to approximately 160 percent of GDP.

#12 In total, there are now more than 5 million unemployed workers in Spain.

#13 Bad loans in Spain recently reached a 17-year high.

#14 The overall unemployment rate in Spain is now a whopping 22.8 percent.

#15 The number of property repossessions in Spain has risen by 32 percent over the past year.

#16 When the maturing debt that the Italian government must roll over in 2012 is added to their projected budget deficit, the total comes to approximately 23.1 percent of Italy's GDP.

#17 Manufacturing activity in the euro zone has fallen for five months in a row.

#18 The UK economy actually contracted during the 4th quarter of 2011.

#19 The German economy actually contracted during the 4th quarter of 2011.

#20 The Baltic Dry Index, often used as a gauge for the health of the world economy, has fallen a staggering 61 percent since October.

Original Article

[CountingDown]

This might be of interest:
Barclays' Decision Tree on Greek Default

[biffvernon]

Nice tree! The one that might not be disastrous, the outcome at the bottom far left, is the one marked 'probability...low'.

[DominicJ]

It must be a cultural thing because most of Club Med is suffering from the same problem.

Not entirely
The key cause of this southern problem, is Germany.

The ECB bailed out Germany. That bailout created the credit booms in the southern states.
The Southern States are now being preached too.

If the ECB had done its job, it would have forced Germany into a brutal rcession and the Club Med would have ambled along with low growth and little debt growth.

The ECB instead forced the brutal recession onto club med.

[mobbsey]

somehow all this makes me think of Red Dwarf:

Rimmer: Step up to Red Alert.
Kryten: Sir, are you absolutely sure? It does mean changing the bulb!

[UndercoverElephant]

Nice tree! The one that might not be disastrous, the outcome at the bottom far left, is the one marked 'probability...low'.

Even that outcome is disastrous in the long run. The underlying problem isn't debt at all, but that Germany and Greece cannot remain in a union under the current de-facto rules. Even if the whole Greek debt was wiped out, it would only be a matter of time before the whole thing happened all over again.

[Ludwig]

what the **** were they thinking, accumulating so much debt

The people actually implementing the policies had nothing to lose and lots to gain. They also knew that in the short-medium term their policies would benefit their populations, so that as long as things were going well, no one would worry about how the debt would be paid off. By the time the people started to worry, it would be too late.

The people at the top remain insulated from the fall-out. They never had anything to lose.

[emordnilap]

what the **** were they thinking, accumulating so much debt

Since Thatcher and Regan busted the unions, wages have stagnated but!!! endless cheap credit!!! Yayyy!!

Oh, not endless credit. Endless debt.

As our own Fintan O'Toole put it, "the problem was not the lack of regulation but political culture which allowed it."