"Thinking The Unthinkable" article

[XENG]

Of course, the sooner we can start to prepare for life after oil the better - using our fossil-fuel inheritance to construct a self-sustaining post-carbon infrastructure instead of blowing it on the consumer party.

R Buckminster Fuller said pretty much the same thing many years ago, he called fossil fuels: "A one time only bootstrap" or something like that and then went on to say that he hoped we wouldnt squander it, well at least we've still got half of it left.

if that meant raiding somebodies field or shoplifting or stealing from somebody to feed my family, then I know I would do it and I bet most people would - hands up who wouldn't?!

I wouldn't.
The average human can go without food for around forty days without suffering any ill effects, probably more in our supersize-obese culture, infact the human body evolved with the ability to fast built in.
The longest i have been without food was five days, i decided i needed to fast in order to detoxify my body and to see if i could override the impulse to eat, i certainly didnt feel that i needed to raid my neigbours vegetable patch.
The experience was most enlightening, after the first 3 days i didnt really feel hungry, there was no tiredness and i felt much better as my body removed the toxins it had built up from years of eating crap.
Most mammals periodically fast, its only humans that have an obsession with having a full stomach.

[ianryder]

if that meant raiding somebodies field or shoplifting or stealing from somebody to feed my family, then I know I would do it and I bet most people would - hands up who wouldn't?!

I would think if things really go pear shaped there's a real chance that those very groups / communities that get together to help each other out will not take very kindly to seeing someone disappearing into the bushes with their cucumbers...posses will be in effect (not in a hip-hop way either) which might put a lot of people off. As much as I would probably do what I could to feed my family, I would know the best thing would be for me to be there as long as possible.

Personally I plan to be in a posse and not a loan raider

[snow hope]

As much as I would probably do what I could to feed my family, I would know the best thing would be for me to be there as long as possible.

Good point.

As for going without food for 40 days without any ill-effects - catch a grip.

[GD]

Oh, I wish for that to be the case. But when I try to visualise it, I just think that the humans of the 1940s/50s were certainly capable of that, but the humans of the nineties or the noughties? I don't think so...... sometimes I think maybe I am being too cynical (comes with middle age!), but then I think of the cities and what would I do if I couldn't get enough food for my wife and three boys?

Sorry, but this smacks of "my generation is best cos I was born in it" (roughly). The young people of today are more concerned with environment, poverty and social justice than with the bickering we see in parliament today. This is why we have low voter turn-outs. The chavs we all like to take the p--- out of are a minority, like all "yoof" trouble-makers have been.

[ianryder]

Sorry, but this smacks of "my generation is best cos I was born in it" (roughly). The young people of today are more concerned with environment, poverty and social justice than with the bickering we see in parliament today. This is why we have low voter turn-outs. The chavs we all like to take the p--- out of are a minority, like all "yoof" trouble-makers have been.

In fairness to snow hope, is he that old?! But I think it's more that there are undoubtedly more people now that have no fear of the law and also have a serious lack of morals...blame it on parents being too soft / not caring, TV, capitalism, inequality, immigration, whatever. There are definitely more people like that now than in the 40s/50s.

How those people will react in a powerdown is probably pretty obvious - the way they would now. Look for an opportunity to get what they can for themselves.

The scary thought is that those people might be the successful ones in a really bad situation...survival of the fittest in action maybe.

[GD]

There are definitely more people like that now than in the 40s/50s.

I think we're all agreed that there's more people in general nowadays. Whether you see more good or bad really is your choice. My point is that it's how you perceive that counts; do you really know how moral/amoral they ALL are?

[ianryder]

I think we're all agreed that there's more people in general nowadays. Whether you see more good or bad really is your choice. My point is that it's how you perceive that counts; do you really know how moral/amoral they ALL are?

I've just moved from London to Devon where I notice you are - I don't know your background or what you've experienced but Devon is literally a million miles fom London in terms of people. What their desires and fantasies are I probably wouldn't want to know...the nights are long and cold in winter.

But I know I can walk around Exeter and feel pretty safe generally...I couldn't do that in London most of the time. Not because of my imagination, but because there are a large number of people who have no fear of the consequences of breaking the law. I've experienced it several times either personally or family. Where I live now people just can't believe some of the things that we've seen!

I'm not saying there weren't bad people in the 40s/50s but I think the rest of society was far less likely to tolerate them than they are now.

[Totally_Baffled]

FWIW GD and IR, I think you will end up with a situation somewhere in the middle of the scenarios you describe.

I think certain areas in certain cities could be a nightmare - but I think on the whole the UK will keep it together.

I think those inner city areas with high crime , low educatinal standards and mixed multicultural populations will be awful post peak (although they will survive).

My advice - live nowhere near them - and as you have both moved to Devon , I would say you will both be ok

Im from Plymouth and I have to agree with the comment regarding the difference in people - having said that Ive noticed this difference between London and the rest of England I live in southampton now , and they too are more friendly and patient than areas of London - and it is safe to walk around most of the city on your own)

[ianryder]

I think those inner city areas with high crime , low educatinal standards and mixed multicultural populations will be awful post peak (although they will survive).

Sad thing is it was quite a nice part on the outskirts of London...but people were travelling there as they knew there was a bit of money (mostly borrowed no doubt) to be robbed.

[GD]

I moved from Liverpool, where I was in Uni 4 yrs, to Devon about 6yrs ago, and that felt a million miles apart. After a while I found there was certain areas of Torquay (for example) you could frequent, that would feel just like Liverpool.

Now I'm in Ivybridge, which feels a million miles from Plymouth (but is only 10).

[PaulS]

Same here. Having moved to Cornwall just a year ago (Is it a year already!) we now know more of our neighbours here than we ever did in Kent, even though the physical distances between us are that much greater. And I must say that everyone here has been extremely helpful and friendly.

But my point remains.

Without world-wide drastic government action on Energy and Climate flip we are heading straight for an overshoot and disaster, possibly extinction type event.

[GD]

PaulS, have you seen the links on my signature? It aims to specifically address that.

Edit - although I'll admit I'm no expert on climate, but thought the climate flips were something we can't avoid anyway, only that our emmissions were causing warming on faster and larger scale (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard-Oeschger_event).

[PaulS]

Its just that the term 'Climate Change' does not carry the same type of urgency as 'Climate Flip'.

We may not be able to avoid them, but normally they occur on very long timescales. We are doing our best to cause a climate flip from cool to hot as fast as we can make it.

I had a brief look at Simpol. My concern is with the 'S'. Given that governments cannot even agree on a straight forward moral case for cease fire in Lebanon or trade access to rich countries by poor countries, how can we hope that most world governments will come together to impose DRASTIC (nothing else will do) action on their population in the face of an apparently distant, unclear, contraversial and disputed event such PO?

Now you answer that, please. I would like to think there is an answer, but I have grave doubts about that. After all thats why I escaped to Cornwall!

[GD]

PaulS,

There's a good FAQ section on the website (link)
that you might want to browse (I think number 5 is the one that most closely fits what you're saying).

As far as population goes, we know that in the reasonable comfort of the 1st world the birth rates go into decline, and our populations are being sustained (or grown) by immigration. My personal belief (at this present, and I am not the type of person to cling to pet theories for the sake of them) is that if we want to reduce world population, then we need to first address poverty.

BTW, I also believe that we should prepare for the worst while working for the best. I probably won't hang around in Devon for long either, and will most likely go back to Wales where the rest of the family is.

[snow hope]

GD, I was born in the sixties - you have picked me up wrongly. I am not having a go at your people.

But you have to admit we live in a less civilised society nowadays. Crime is high; we are used to everything being provided almost immediately and people get angry when they don't get what they want, when they want it.
Expectations will have to be seriously changed in the near future!

But more than this, we have an extremely complex, sophisticated and inter-dependent world now. When only a couple of the links start to break-down the whole supply chain will fail and the knock-on effects we will see will be nothing short of disastrous in my opinion. We have to start to think things through in terms of how we can get food on shelves in supermarkets and into people's homes if transport companies go bust for instance (many are on the brink and have been for some time). This is just one small example of where things are going to go off the rails.

People, even on here, need to realise the imminent problems we are going to face. I think it likely that stock markets will crash world-wide, maybe by 50% within 12 months. This will cause inflation and interest rates to spike upwards. You will then see an explosion in business and personal bankruptcies. The 1.6m currently unemployed in the UK could easily spike to 5m when the SHTF.
http://www.incomesdata.co.uk/statistics/statempl.htm

I could go on, but it is too negative, save to say that ther is no doubt in my mind that things will get bad. The real question, as some people understand, is just how bad and how far back are we going to go.....