What would be the trigger to bug-out of work/bug-in at home?

[JonB]

Back before I knew anything about PO I did bug out when the first Scud crashed into Tel Aviv during Gulf War 1.
I can remember the sudden chill inside me even now. I would love to know what kept the Israeli Air force on the ground that day

According to John Major via a neutral they told Iraq that if Saddam had used WMD on the coalition or Israel, they would allow stormin' Norman to use tatical nukes.

[SleeperService]

Back before I knew anything about PO I did bug out when the first Scud crashed into Tel Aviv during Gulf War 1.
I can remember the sudden chill inside me even now. I would love to know what kept the Israeli Air force on the ground that day

According to John Major via a neutral they told Iraq that if Saddam had used WMD on the coalition or Israel, they would allow stormin' Norman to use tatical nukes.

Interesting, I've heard rumours about this before. He'd definately be the man who'd pull the trigger as well Makes sense as the stockpile at Diego Garcia alledgedly holds the warheads needed. Thanks.

[kenneal - lagger]

Suggested trigger points, any one of the following.

Actuall or probable declaration of martial law
Attack on the UK with WMD
Repeated or large scale attacks on the UK with conventional weapons
Nulclear weapons used anywhere in the world
Large scale war or invasion in a major oil producer.
Nuclear accident that renders a major urban center unsafe.
General systemic failure of the UK banking system, branches shut, cashpoints empty.
EMP event.
Plague or disease with rapid spread and significant mortality in the UK.

Alternative trigger points would be 2 or more of the following, but not just one.

Actual or likely declaration of a state of emergency
Repeated or frequent terrorist attacks.
Credible threat to use nuclear weapons anywhere in the world.
Rioting leading to actual or likely multiple loss of life
Large scale utility failure leading to significant loss of life
Natural disaster leading to large scale loss of life (over 1,000) in the UK.
Serious shortages of basic food stuffs or fuel, no matter how caused.
Military assistance required in peacetime.
Solar storm leading to widespread infrastructure damage.

And of course any event that on a national scale may not be that bad, but which renders your immediate area uninhabitable.

You could add to that list

Asteroid strike anywhere on earth
Super volcano, not just an ordinary one, eruption or threat of. Etna or Vesuvius going off full bore with a south easterly wind could warrant bugging out in the UK.



The Israelis were told that the Coalition would deal with the missiles which is why the SAS were deployed into the western Iraq desert.

[DominicJ]

A pandemic might be a reason not to come into work, but I'm not sure I'd bug out for one.

The nuke threat isnt a secret.
Its well acknowledged, if Sadam had gone chemical on the coalition forces, we were going nuclear on Bahgdad / Sadams likely hiding palces.
At the time, it was common for most Royal Navy warships to carry nuclear weapons, our bomb came in three flavours, ballistic missile warhead, plane dropped bomb, and nuclear depth charge.
Argentina got all pissy because the Corporate Task Force was carrying some.

I think Israel was told in no uncertain terms that if it attacked Iraq there would be violent consequences.
Theres not a great deal it could have done about the Scuds anyway, if the US couldnt find them, it couldnt, and Iraqs air defences were well above anything the IDF had beaten before.

[SleeperService]

I've heard the SAS vs Scud argument before but that's been pretty much discredited as THE reason the Israeli's stayed quiet.

The Israeli Air Force had penetrated Iraqi airspace several times including the strike on their nuclear research facility. They have American equipment (pretty good), plenty of experience with different generations of Soviet and other ground air defence (very helpful) and motivation (the killer application in this context).

Agree that the Scuds were awkward to find hence my original question. I've seen the nuclear threat 'acknowledged' but only by second party or worse sources of doubtful reliability. One site that mentioned it also mentioned the Masons and Roswell! I'll look into the John Major angle when I get a chance.

Better let the thread get back on topic. Thanks for allowing my diversion

[adam2]

A lot depends on ones work location.
Mine is in London, which as others post is far from ideal, but does have advantages over many other workplaces.
My office and workshop are in a deep concrete basement that should withstand any conventional terrorist bomb.
In case of a nuclear incident, the radiation dose received in a deep concrete basement should be about one hundredth of that received outside. Basic precuations should reduce this by a factor of ten, that is to one thousandth of that outside.

I have a UPS sufficient for normal demand for a couple of days.
Minimal battery lighting for months.
Food and water for a month
Chlorine tablets for a year
Gas mask and spare filters
First aid supplies
Geiger counters and numerous spare batteries
Torches and lanterns with numerous spare batteries.
Spare clothes and footwear
Tools and equipment that are primarily for my work, but that would certainly be useful in an emergency

I stayed at work during the worst night of the recent riots as public transport was not available and taxis reluctant to venture to riot areas.

[SleeperService]

I'm surprised that iodine tablets aren't included as you've taken other radiation related precautions.

I'd also add protective overshoes in case you do have to venture out briefly.

[featherstick]

So we've had some thoughts about bugging in/out at home/at work and as usual Adam2 has the most comprehensive list

We bugged out last summer during the riots, and I called SWMBO and told her to leave the office NOW because of twitter rumours of riots in Kings Cross. She did, thankfully, without objection, which I suppose means she takes prepping a little more seriously.

What would people do when they get home? I've had some thoughts but they're under-developed. I'm very interested in whether other people have thought of how they'd keep safe during a wide-spread civil disturbance.

[adam2]

Having arrived home, I would contact reliable and trustworthy neigbours, in order that we may keep an eye on each other.
Other than that, I would keep a low profile and avoid attracting attention.

If the power is on, leave lights on so as to look like everyone else.
If the power is off, show minimum lighting, like everyone else.
If the water is on, but might fail, fill the bath and other containers.
If local shops are open and it is safe to go out, add to stocks but dont overdo it and become known as a hoarder.
Keep in touch by telephone and email, and if available by other means.
Monitor radio, TV, and internet for the latest news.
Keep weapons, firefighting appliances, flashlights, first aid kits etc, ready for instant use.
Keep calm and dont panic ! get some sleep! but perhaps partialy clothed in case instant action is needed.
Avoid excessive drink at any time, you may need to be fully sober without warning.
Conserve supplies that may be very valuable in future, for example if you have a wood stove, let it go out and use electricity instead for heating and cooking. If you have a backup battery system, keep the battery fully charged and use grid power whilst it is still available.
Whilst power is available, give priority to preparing and eating chilled and frozen foods lest they spoil. Dont eat long lasting foods until all perishables are used.
If you have a car, but local public transport is still running and safe to use, then save the petrol and use public transport.
Keep laptops, cellphones and the like fully charged, not a long term solution of course, but still better than nothing.

[mikepepler]

Interesting points. I guess the thing is to have something like a 'defcon level', so you know how jumpy you need to be.

For example, you could decide that in the current situation things are generally OK, but with plenty of warning signs on the horizon. But if a deadline for a Eurozone country defaulting was days away, or the rhetoric about oil sanctions on Iran and the Straits of Hormuz was increasing, then you might try and work from home when possible and when you have to go into a city for work you'd make sure to check the news every hour.

[adam2]

Disaster could occur suddenly, and one might be unaware of a rapidly worsening situation for many hours if asleep or concentrating on ones work.
A usefull measure for such circumstances is to have a circle of friends, family and perhaps colleagues who agree to telehone each other in case of any seriously bad news.
For example, someone might sleep soundly from 23-00 until 07-00, leave hastily for work having overslept, be glad to get a seat on the bus, and not realise that somthing has gone badly wrong until they arrive at work and wonder why hardly anyone else has turned up.
If however they had a friend or relative who kept different hours, and telephoned them at 03-00 to say "ABC have just nuked XYZ, stock markets closed, oil at $300" They could then listen to the news and decide what to do.
This is by no means a cure all, in a truly bad disaster the phones might not work, and of course everyone in ones circle might have missed the news. It is however another line of defence, forwarned is forearmed.

There is also something to be said for an alarm that will wake you if the power fails. This might be a minor and local breakdown, or it may be part of some widespread disaster such as an EMP event or a terrorist attack on the grid.
If the power does fail, but you still have cellphone service and can receive radio broadcasts, that suggests a local problem, go back to sleep after listening to the radio news.
If however the blackout appears to be regional, and/or there is no cellphone service and no/very limited radio broadcasts then that is an "oh sh1t " moment.
Remember that a large scale, long lasting blackout is a potentialy very serious situation, no matter what backup supplies you may have.

[Ludwig]

It's as well to remember that the public are being gradually groomed for disaster-preparedness. We are constantly being told that a pandemic, or terrorists, could strike at any time. On top of this, the ubiquitous signs of the implementation of a police state seem, to me, to be deliberately designed to make people feel jumpy and therefore pliant when [whatever] happens.

What I'm saying is that we shouldn't assume that being PO-aware somehow gives one a head start if disaster strikes. I personally believe that containment measures will be in place before the disaster is announced, and therefore by the time one knows about it, one's fate will already be in the hands of the gods, wherever one happens to be.

I don't want to discourage anyone, but it seems naive to think that, in the event of a disaster, one could calmly catch the first train out of London before anyone else knows anything about it.

[energy-village]

Interesting points. I guess the thing is to have something like a 'defcon level', so you know how jumpy you need to be.

For example, you could decide that in the current situation things are generally OK, but with plenty of warning signs on the horizon. But if a deadline for a Eurozone country defaulting was days away, or the rhetoric about oil sanctions on Iran and the Straits of Hormuz was increasing, then you might try and work from home when possible and when you have to go into a city for work you'd make sure to check the news every hour.

A personal 'defcon level' is an interesting idea, Mike.

Perhaps Powerswitch should have its own Doomsday Clock or a Doomsday Clock thread? 5 minutes to midnight now. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked the clock ticks on another minute, if Iran is n-bombed another minute etc.

[SleeperService]

Interesting points. I guess the thing is to have something like a 'defcon level', so you know how jumpy you need to be.

For example, you could decide that in the current situation things are generally OK, but with plenty of warning signs on the horizon. But if a deadline for a Eurozone country defaulting was days away, or the rhetoric about oil sanctions on Iran and the Straits of Hormuz was increasing, then you might try and work from home when possible and when you have to go into a city for work you'd make sure to check the news every hour.

A personal 'defcon level' is an interesting idea, Mike.

Perhaps Powerswitch should have its own Doomsday Clock or a Doomsday Clock thread? 5 minutes to midnight now. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked the clock ticks on another minute, if Iran is n-bombed another minute etc.

If they nuke Iran I think that'll be more than a minute forward That would likely lead to WW3 or Armageddon for the religiously inclined.

[energy-village]

If they nuke Iran I think that'll be more than a minute forward That would likely lead to WW3 or Armageddon for the religiously inclined.

I was thinking of the nuclear-tipped 'bunker busters' that sometimes get mentioned. But - as you suggest - using them could lead to a regretable brouhaha.