Thoughts on 2012

[nexus]

Sharon Astyk was pretty on the nail in her 2011 predictions, so the 2012 ones should make interesting reading: http://scienceblogs.com/casaubonsbook/

[Lord Beria3]

http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2012/01/ ... #more-7053

Interesting set of predictions from somebody who 'gets' Peak Oil.

[kenneal - lagger]

Not sure that I agree with this statement

11. Solar irradiation was still near its cyclical minimum this year, but it can only rise in the next few years; together with the ever-increasing CO2 load, it will likely make for a very warm 2012. So, more broken records in 2012.

Although the sunspot activity will rise for the next five or six years as part of the current sunspot cycle, the underlying activity is still very low and likely to remain that way for at least another solar cycle yet. Maunder Minimum territory!

[SleeperService]

Not sure that I agree with this statement

11. Solar irradiation was still near its cyclical minimum this year, but it can only rise in the next few years; together with the ever-increasing CO2 load, it will likely make for a very warm 2012. So, more broken records in 2012.

Although the sunspot activity will rise for the next five or six years as part of the current sunspot cycle, the underlying activity is still very low and likely to remain that way for at least another solar cycle yet. Maunder Minimum territory!

If the underlying activity is low then what would the weather be like if it was normal let alone above average?

[Tarrel]

As far as I understand it, solar UV levels (which have been low, and attributed to our run of cold winters) are not necessarily related to the solar cycle, which impacts of things such as Aurora and geomagnetic storms. We have been at a very deep and protracted dip in the solar cycle, which has coincided with lower UV levels. My amateur radio buddies have been pulling their hair out over the last two or three years. Many of them have been in the radio business for a long time, and cannot remember geomagnetic activity being so low. (Geomagnetic activity energises the ionosphere, which is needed for long-range short-wave radio transmission). All set to change though, as the solar cycle is "on the up".

[Lord Beria3]

http://petras.lahaine.org/?p=1885

Introduction: The economic, political and social outlook for 2012 is profoundly negative. The almost universal consensus, even among mainstream orthodox economists is pessimistic regarding the world economy. Though even here their predictions understate the scope and depth of the crises.

There are powerful reasons to believe that beginning in 2012, we are heading toward a steeper decline than what was experienced during the Great Recession of 2008 – 2009. With fewer resources, greater debt and increasing popular resistance to shouldering the burden of saving the capitalist system, the governments cannot bail out the system.
Many of the major institutions and economic relations which were cause and consequence of world and regional capitalist expansion over the past three decades are in the process of disintegration and disarray. The previous economic engines of global expansion, the US and the European Union, have exhausted their potentialities and are in open decline. The new centers of growth, China, India, Brazil, Russia, which for a ‘short decade’ provided a new impetus for world growth have run their course and are de-accelerating rapidly and will continue to do so throughout the new year.

Interesting uber-doomerist outlook on 2012...

[ujoni08]

More predictions here:

http://oilprice.com/Geo-Politics/Intern ... -2012.html

[biffvernon]

That's quite an interesting article. Of course most predictions turn out to be wrong but there's a dry sense of humour lurking within. I like this, about Iran:

All parties to the disagreement have postured themselves badly, through diplomatic bluster, and find the search for face-saving difficult.