End of the Euro

extractorfan · Post by **extractorfan** » 18 Dec 2011, 22:06

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Indeed, I think that this process of slow collapse is accellerating...

I agree with that. It's quite simple, peak oil means we all get gradually poorer, even the uber rich, but we become poorer at different rates. It doesn't matter if a government prints money because the money is worth less exponentially.

It just means it can be a gradual process of impoverishment, not a fast crash.

Standuble · Post by **Standuble** » 18 Dec 2011, 23:19

extractorfan wrote:It just means it can be a gradual process of impoverishment, not a fast crash.

Wouldn't certain factors cause the process to rapidly accelerate (before perhaps slowing down towards its original decline?) For example if a couple of countries have a majority of farmers who can no longer afford petro-chemical fertilisers due to PO the nation finds itself in a food crisis due to a plunge in crop yield, perhaps lasting years. Not only does this cause civil unrest and strife it puts significant strain on the continuous function of infrastructure. Wouldn't it result in food aid which puts either pressure on the aid agencies due to increased reliance or pressure on the countries who would have received it?

Or have I mis-grasped the situation?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Dec 2011, 23:38

Standuble wrote:
extractorfan wrote:It just means it can be a gradual process of impoverishment, not a fast crash.
Wouldn't certain factors cause the process to rapidly accelerate (before perhaps slowing down towards its original decline?) For example if a couple of countries have a majority of farmers who can no longer afford petro-chemical fertilisers due to PO the nation finds itself in a food crisis due to a plunge in crop yield, perhaps lasting years. Not only does this cause civil unrest and strife it puts significant strain on the continuous function of infrastructure. Wouldn't it result in food aid which puts either pressure on the aid agencies due to increased reliance or pressure on the countries who would have received it?

Or have I mis-grasped the situation?

Large-scale food aid will become a thing of the past quite quickly. It is not so much the cost of the food in a world where a lot of people are already bankrupt. The problem is that the whole idea of shipping large amounts of food to some area which has had a famine is based on the assumption that one's own food security is not considered to be at serious risk. Once a country starts wondering about the adequacy of their own stockpiles, they won't even sell any of it, let alone give it away to starving people in far-off places. We are coming to the end of a long period of global food surpluses.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 19 Dec 2011, 08:42

Theres two quitwe different things going on here, and they are not linked.

The first is economic, vast amounts of stupid loans were made, and they are starting to turn bad.
(Go back to 2007 and tyou'll find me buying a house I can not afford, on the basis that I wont have to.)

There are two solutions to this problem.
The First, is that I am made a perpetualy indentured servant, my house is repossed, sold at a knock down price and the remainder of the loan attached to me, at an unrepayable interest rate.

The Second, is that the person who lent me the money is thrown under the bus, either I am allowed to default on the loan and keep the house, or I lose the house, but am not attached to any losses from the loan, or inflation reduces the realtive value of the loan.

That applies whether its SubPrime Lending in the US by pension funds or the Germany/Greece conundrum we are discussing.
The first solution created the Great Depression in the US, the second killed the war widows in the UK.

The second problem, is PO.
Even if we had found 10 more Saudies, we would still be here.
But we havent found 10 more Saudies, which complicates things, a lot.

extractorfan · Post by **extractorfan** » 19 Dec 2011, 13:07

Standuble wrote: Or have I mis-grasped the situation?

I don't think so, I am just thinking from a UK perspective.

And I do think fast crash is possible, just less likely than slow decline (although if I lose my job it will feel pretty bloody fast).

and what UE said too, except we will still see food being sold (not given away) even in countries where people are hungry. It happened during the Irish famine and happens in Zimbabwe (and elsewhere) today.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 19 Dec 2011, 21:23

This
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... PcWHBPYOSU
would bw a whole lot more persuasive if it wasn't in an American accent, Brummie maybe. Even so....hmmmm.

extractorfan · Post by **extractorfan** » 19 Dec 2011, 22:02

You can't sue hmrc either, only appeal against an assessment. Same with the French version although they amusingly call it "considered infallible" in law.

I did say to my sister once, maybe in the future you won't be employable unless you have debt. Looks like the way it's going. Alas poor freedom, we knew it fleetingly.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 21 Dec 2011, 22:27

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16282206

Huge demand for ECB's three-year loans

Eurozone banks have rushed to take out cheap three-year loans offered by the European Central Bank, borrowing 489bn euros ($643bn; £375bn).

So nearly....

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 21 Dec 2011, 23:18

Rally didn't last long... FTSE down by the end of the day.

Fitch saying that they might downgrade the US, Moody ditto on the UK.

Looks like the soveriegn debt crisis is now spreading globally, as I predicted.

Japan next.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 21 Dec 2011, 23:35

Lord Beria3 wrote:... as I predicted.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 22 Dec 2011, 08:21

Huge demand for ECB's three-year loans
Eurozone banks have rushed to take out cheap three-year loans offered by the European Central Bank, borrowing 489bn euros ($643bn; £375bn).

Borrow for 1% from the ECB, buy Italian bonds at 6%, make 5% profit, everybody winds, except the public of course, but since when did they matter...

hodson2k9 · Post by **hodson2k9** » 22 Dec 2011, 20:50

www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein ... _blog.html

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 22 Dec 2011, 23:22

Renewable +1

Amazing...the sooth sayer cometh eh LB3?

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 23 Dec 2011, 12:46

RenewableCandy wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:... as I predicted.

The shorter your posts are RC, the funnier they get

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 23 Dec 2011, 16:58

Sorry, sometimes I'm just a lazy git.

I just feel bad because I want to deliver the local consignment of Crimbo-cards and it's pissistantly raining so I can't. It was all we could do to have a swift walk in the woods to pick up fallen pine-branches to hang on the door.