Thoughts on 2012

jonny2mad · Post by **jonny2mad** » 13 Dec 2011, 20:45

They all seem reasonably tame pretty much business as usual

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 13 Dec 2011, 20:45

http://etf-investment-ideas.blogspot.com/

Here's Marc Faber on a ultra bearish view on the next few years...

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 13 Dec 2011, 23:17

PhilSage wrote:The wild card in the US is the armed civillian, resisting a perceived tyranical government.

A scenario could be envisaged where a large number of dissafected take exception to being pepper sprayed, and come out with AR15s to open fire on anything looking like law enforcement or Federal authority.

A possible response would be for the military to seal the affected area(s) and give 48 hour's notice for the population to come out unarmed. Essentially a Fallujah scenario.

How many' Fallujahs' on US soil would it take before factions of the US army dissent?

Hypothetical I know but it could go that way in the US much more easily than most other places in the world.

I don't know as that is a wild card as much as it is a certainty. 300 million guns in civilian hands or just about one each. Forget your AR 15s ,worry about your 30-06 Remington's in the hands of those that have used them for years. The military is less then two million strong with only a small fraction of that being infantry. Bring all the tanks and AMRAPS you want , sooner or later the driver has to get out to take a wiz or fuel it up.
A small elite government cannot take over the US. The majority is armed and will carry out their will if not at the ballot box then on the battle field.

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 13 Dec 2011, 23:27

Modern tanks have toilets and full facilities.

jonny2mad · Post by **jonny2mad** » 14 Dec 2011, 00:55

modern tanks can still be taken out using IED's and EFP's and you have lots of people in the states who could put them together

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 14 Dec 2011, 02:02

maudibe wrote:Modern tanks have toilets and full facilities.

And the tanks never get full? And the fuel tank never gets empty? Or the ammo bin, or the ration locker, or the drinking water supply? Patience Grasshopper the shot will come.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 14 Dec 2011, 08:31

jonny2mad wrote:I think the whole idea of America is so tied to the American dream of consumption, and the whole political system is so corrupt and the people can see its corrupt, and this is going to get worse the disillusionment in the entire system will get worse and very quickly.

And at some point people will get the fact the whole things going to fall apart, then depending on your group allegiance your going to be thinking well what state am I going to end up in.

True enough, but will Americans unite against their government, or will Hispanics unite for themselves?
There is an all pervading Americanism that means theres a chance they will be seen as American Hispanics rather than Hispanic Americans, perhaps not a good one.

jonny2mad · Post by **jonny2mad** » 14 Dec 2011, 14:47

At some point they will try someone like Ron Paul but even if they do their going to be disappointed, at some point your going to have shortages and hardship when that happens people are likely to go crazy .

you could look on youtube at the la riots, or Katrina, or racial flash mobs, when the welfare stops or things get tight I'd imagine the whole thing will blow up.

Same sort of things likely to happen here , I think the people in charge understand all this why else bring in all the homeland security laws

America is going to be seen as a failed state maybe as a failed state with some aspects of a good idea that you can use in future state-lets , maybe as something totally discredited, this may seem unbelievable now but I think we underestimate how badly resource depletion will hit the states and how fractured the states really are now .

Contrast Japan after a tsunami and nuclear disaster and the USA after a flood Katrina, if you can find it read megadoom from latocs account of being a paramedic at Katrina

PhilSage · Post by **PhilSage** » 14 Dec 2011, 16:44

DominicJ wrote:
jonny2mad wrote:I think the whole idea of America is so tied to the American dream of consumption, and the whole political system is so corrupt and the people can see its corrupt, and this is going to get worse the disillusionment in the entire system will get worse and very quickly.

And at some point people will get the fact the whole things going to fall apart, then depending on your group allegiance your going to be thinking well what state am I going to end up in.
True enough, but will Americans unite against their government, or will Hispanics unite for themselves?
There is an all pervading Americanism that means theres a chance they will be seen as American Hispanics rather than Hispanic Americans, perhaps not a good one.

The South West US was historically part of Mexico anyway, and demographically it seems to have been going back that way for some time.

The all-pervading Americanism exists because the US could always offer the prospect of a higher material standard of living. If the US can no longer deliver that, then there's no gain for Hispanics in assimilating a failed ideal.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 14 Dec 2011, 18:58

http://www.financialsense.com/financial ... new-supply

Chris Skrebowski: Oil Markets Set to Tighten as Depletion Overrides New Supply: Tightening oil supplies from 2012 to 2015

In other words, Peak oil hits next year with ever rising prices (only interrupted with short term demand driven price collapses)...

So its game over for the global economy and printing unlimited money by the central banks will only fuel the explosive rise of food and energy costs throughout the global system.

Its over for the euro, the fiat currency system, growth in the developed indebted world, public sector welfare states through the developed world.

Wake up people.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 14 Dec 2011, 22:10

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/chin ... egins.html

China's credit bubble has finally popped. The property market is swinging wildly from boom to bust, the cautionary exhibit of a BRIC's dream that is at last coming down to earth with a thud.

Great article from Ambrose on how growth is starting to collapse in China. Massive losses on property might be the trigger for Russian style social unrest from the emerging Chinese middle classes.

What a nightmare for the Chinese politburo when they face their reelection year in 2012. Exciting times ahead for China!

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 14 Dec 2011, 22:27

Lord Beria3 wrote:Wake up people.

Wide awake here.

Folks I urge you to listen to the interview in Beria's financialsense link. It just confirms (yet again) how fecked we are......

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 15 Dec 2011, 00:02

snow hope wrote: Folks I urge you to listen to the interview in Beria's financialsense link. It just confirms (yet again) how fecked we are......

Just listened to it - wasn't really surprised by what Chris Skrebowski had to say but he is articulate. Odd that he doesn't see - or at least doesn't admit to seeing - the connection between our invasions of the Middle East and our need for oil, but rather makes out that ME turbulence is hindering oil production - which it may be in the short term, but remember the issue is not how much oil is being produced, but how much of it we're getting.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 15 Dec 2011, 00:51

PhilSage wrote:
DominicJ wrote:[The all-pervading Americanism exists because the US could always offer the prospect of a higher material standard of living. If the US can no longer deliver that, then there's no gain for Hispanics in assimilating a failed ideal.
So they should return to Mexico and jump back into that wonderfully prosperous ideal???
I think the Hispanics in the US south west are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they try to rise up against the established whites (not the retirees from the north) they will be crushed. They need to find a way to be a useful participant in the new deal ,what ever that may prove to be. I'm not too worried about them , they have been dealing with adversity for generations and will be quicker on the uptake then the ensconced white middle class which will starve before they figure out why their debit cards no longer work.

lancasterlad · Post by **lancasterlad** » 15 Dec 2011, 03:43

2012?.....