Stormy out to sea

[RenewableCandy]

"L 947" and drafty again tonight

[emordnilap]

Aye and some Angela's Ashes rain as I type!

[biffvernon]

And then there'll be another on Friday:



Sorry snowhope/met office - I'm an outlaw.

[snow hope]

All normal.......

Over the last few weeks there has been a significant low pressure anomaly (from the 1981-2010 mean climatology) from 55 degrees northwards over Europe. So, rather by definition, the weather hasn't been 'normal' for this time of year. But then we also know November was anything but normal, being the warmest on record over Scotland and the 2nd warmest over the UK. The UK average temperature for November was ~2C warmer than usual, and the northern half of Scandinavia was ~6C warmer!

Humans have such short memories.... If we compare to the 1961-1990 mean, I think you will find that low pressure systems and storms in November / December are very normal. The weather has just been very zonal ie south westerly. Autumn and early winter storms are very normal I can assure you.

As for all that stuff about the Novermber warm temps and not being normal - so what? Last December was the coldest December ever recorded in Ireland - these anomalies happen. It is wrong to draw conclusions from them, that would be erroneous.

[snow hope]

Sorry snowhope/met office - I'm an outlaw.

Oh you ragabond you.

But you don't want to bring PowerSwitch into disrepute...... The Met Office don't miss much.... I know from being contacted on another web site.

[clv101]

All normal.......

Over the last few weeks there has been a significant low pressure anomaly (from the 1981-2010 mean climatology) from 55 degrees northwards over Europe. So, rather by definition, the weather hasn't been 'normal' for this time of year. But then we also know November was anything but normal, being the warmest on record over Scotland and the 2nd warmest over the UK. The UK average temperature for November was ~2C warmer than usual, and the northern half of Scandinavia was ~6C warmer!

Humans have such short memories.... If we compare to the 1961-1990 mean, I think you will find that low pressure systems and storms in November / December are very normal. The weather has just been very zonal ie south westerly. Autumn and early winter storms are very normal I can assure you.

As for all that stuff about the Novermber warm temps and not being normal - so what? Last December was the coldest December ever recorded in Ireland - these anomalies happen. It is wrong to draw conclusions from them, that would be erroneous.

I don't have the 61-90 data to hand, but compared to the 81-10 data what we're seeing is not normal. What was the mean surface pressure over the North Atlantic 61-90 compared to this season?

Coldest December ever? Warmest November ever? Sure, anomalies happen. But how often, or what is the probability of breaking a record in a given year, in a ~150 year series? It is not normal to break a whole load of records in a small proportion of a series unless the underlying probability distribution has changed.

[kenneal - lagger]

I remember Novembers being subject to high pressure giving warm sunny days and very cold, clear, frosty nights with some mist and fog.

[biffvernon]

And this is what we get with just 0.8 degrees of global warming. What's it going to be like when we get the 4 degrees that the Canadian government seem to want today?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16151310

[snow hope]

Whether we get strong westerlies and stormy weather (low pressure systems) crossing the UK in Autumn/Winter is dependant on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). See here, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation

Generally, the NAO index has been low from 1960-1970, high from 1980-2000 and variable at other times.

When the NAO is high we get increased westerlies and storms crossing the UK.

When the NAO is low (negative) we get reduced westerlies, colder winters and the storms (low pressures) track further South than the UK.

Winter 2009/10 - the coldest for 30 years in the UK, was due to a negative NAO. The cold December 2010, was also due to a very low NAO.

Here is another article that should help you understand how the storm tracks and colder / milder winter temps work, ftp://ftp.astr.ucl.ac.be/publi/2011_04_ ... osse-5.pdf

This is the science and it has been happening long before AGW and CO2 was introduced into the whole affair.

[RenewableCandy]

This all falls into the "true but irrelevant" bucket, as do all the equally worthwhile investigations into what the Sun (I mean the large hot thing not the "news"paper) is up to.

Whatever the CO_2 is doing to the weather/climate, it is in addition to all this other stuff. But tbh I'm more worried about what it's doing to the sea, which, as far as I know, is not in dispute.

And in other news, Fille has announced that she wants to be a Geophysicist

[biffvernon]

It happens most autumn's Biff!

And winters as well, it seems, but today's is the biggest winter storm for thirty years.

North Atlantic storms are the planet's way of transferring energy from the Equator to the North Pole via Edinburgh. We should expect them with a greater frequency and intensity as the planet warms.

[JohnB]

I miss out on lots of weather now I'm in the house. Living in my van, I could see when it was raining, judge how heavy by the noise on the roof, and feel the wind speed by how it rocked. Now I've just got east facing double glazed windows, two foot stone walls, and an upstairs, the first I usually know of any weather is when I walk out of the door and get soaked! It's no wonder that people are so detached from nature now.

[snow hope]

And winters as well, it seems, but today's is the biggest winter storm for thirty years.

And what was the cause of the bigger winter storm thirty years ago then? Did we have global warming back then causing that storm?

A bit of logic shows up your argument for what it is.

[SleeperService]

And winters as well, it seems, but today's is the biggest winter storm for thirty years.

And what was the cause of the bigger winter storm thirty years ago then? Did we have global warming back then causing that storm?

A bit of logic shows up your argument for what it is.

Global Warming wasn't labelled as such but the same mechanisms were there. The point of it is that extreme events become more frequent and the new 100 year level event is even more extreme.

Remember when we were all heading for an ice age? Turns out that was based on faulty interpretation of data caused by aerosols upsetting visible light levels at ground level. When evaporation was investigated (by the Israelis I believe) it was realised that ultraviolet light levels were the same. As a result data was reexamined and the true extent of global warming was uncovered. Conspiracy Theorists had a field day

The worse element for me is that if the economy really tanks then a lot of people are going to suffer and die that need not

[emordnilap]

More logic from Met Éireann:

Weather News

03 January 2012 - Provisional 10-minute Windspeed Record for Malin Head

At approximately 5.40 this morning, Jan 3, 2012, our station in Malin head recorded a 10-minute mean windspeed of 68 kts, making it a Beaufort Scale 12, hurricane force, wind. This exceeds the previous record for Malin Head of 67 kts, recorded 26 Dec, 1998.

and

Record wave recorded off Ireland
14 December 2011

The record 20.4 metre wave recorded by the M4 weather buoy at 14.00 on Tuesday 13th December 2011 was a maximum individual wave height. The M4 (and the M2 in the Irish Sea) are from a new generation of weather buoys with the ability to measure maximum wave height; this new M4 has been on station here since June 2011.

Also, at 13.00 yesterday, a Significant Wave Height of 14.7m was recorded at the M4 which was another record wave height at that location.

The highest Significant Wave Height recorded by the Irish weather buoy network was 17.2 metres by the M6 buoy on 9th December 2007.

and

The Weather of December 2011
Wet in places; dull and windy everywhere
Rainfall for the month was above average along the Atlantic coast and in the northwest, with most stations in the west reporting their wettest December in 5 years and an above normal number of wetdays (days with 1mmor more) recorded. Malin Head had the highest rainfall relative to normal in December, with 179 % of its long-term average and its wettest December since 1999 (12 years). The rest of Ireland reported a dry month with below average rainfall. Casement Aerodrome received only 72% of its monthly rainfall total and recorded its driest December since 2004 (7 years). The majority of the month’s highest daily falls were on the 12th and 19th, but were relatively small, with some stations reporting it as their lowest December daily rainfall for a number of years. At Dublin Airport and Mullingar, it was the lowest daily rainfall at the sites in December since 1963 (48 years) and 1970 (41 years), respectively. Mean temperatures for December were above average or average for the time of year. Mean maximum temperatures for the month were above normal everywhere, but almost all stations reported their maximum temperatures, mostly recorded on the 25th and 26th, were not as high as December 2007. Minimum air temperatures were warmer than normal almost everywhere, leading to a below average number of air frosts recorded, of between zero and eight. Malin Head and Belmullet both reported that their minimum air temperature’s for December of 2.0°C and 1.6°C, respectively, were the warmest minimum temperatures recorded since 1988 (23 years). Sunshine during December was below average nearly everywhere, with Casement Aerodrome recording 26.2 hours of sunshine and the dullest December on record since the station opened in 1964 (47 years). Other stations across the country reported it was their dullest December for between six and 20 years.