Thoughts on 2012

[DominicJ]

SS
Not sure I'd say I'm a fan, reading inversions at the moment, Excession was brilliant, not really sure about the rest.

OCP is a much better term than Black Swan in my view, so I use it.

Ludwig
The 1930's was primarily a policey disaster, rather than a financial one.
Germany is repeating the error, whereas we have done much the same we did in 1992 following white wednesday.

The German plan cant work, because Germany is wrong about the cause of the problem.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... y-law.html

The German solution is a Debt Limit of 60% of a deficit limit of 3%
Prior to the crisis, Ireland had a public debt of 12% of GDP, 48% under the limit (germany was 22% OVER the limit at the same time) and spain had a budget surplus of 2% of GDP, 5% under the limit.

Thats like argueing all ships must have at least 3 water tight compartments, after the titanic with 10 sank.

There is no substitute in the long term for genuine wealth, and all bankrupt countries have to face, sooner or later, the consequences of their bankruptcy.

True enough, and getting out of this will require wealth confiscation on a biblical scale.
Either liquidation turns the debtors into little more than indentured servants, or inflation pauperises the elderly.

[RenewableCandy]

I hope to have relocated me and family, started a new job, moved most of our savings into hard assets, and started integrating into a new community, further away from the south east.

I hope I haven't left it too late to up sticks, even if it is to a very similar small city not too far away.

Hey, do I jalouse success ?? I'll give you a hand househunting if you like

[PS_RalphW]

I hope to have relocated me and family, started a new job, moved most of our savings into hard assets, and started integrating into a new community, further away from the south east.

I hope I haven't left it too late to up sticks, even if it is to a very similar small city not too far away.

Hey, do I jalouse success ?? I'll give you a hand househunting if you like

Tell you after my interview tomorrow. Could meet for a coffee and brief chat if you're in town tomorrow about 12...

[ziggy12345]

I predict that there will be solar eclipse on November 13th 2012....

[RenewableCandy]

B***er...not for us, though Fred says

[Keela]

Hoping your interview goes well Ralph.... and that they are all YOU hope them to be too.

[jonny2mad]

TURNING and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

William Butler Yeats

yup anyway its hard to say when but it could well be 2012 but the whole ball of wax is gonna be finished .

Richard Duncan Olduvai theory said the cliff starts in 2012 with an epidemic of permanent blackouts spreading worldwide and that its the beginning of die-off .

I'm not sure hes right in the precise year but I think hes likely to be close

Anyway doom yup doom

if we are lucky and Duncan is a bit early we might have a breathing space where we can eat porridge and twiggle our toes on the other hand this could be the year of collapse .

I think at some point all the big bloated things the things based on cheap energy will fall that includes America and the EU and likely the country's that make up the eu .

I think its likely the states will be like a large version of the Balkans, large multicultural states don't fall peacefully. When the India of the raj split you had over a million deaths and 12 million displaced people, when Yugoslavia split up that was a bloodbath and I think the states will be worse .

Anyway doom plenty doom..... have a mighty nice Christmas try not to worry

[emordnilap]

Bah humbug.

[biffvernon]

TURNING and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

William Butler Yeats

Hey, we're grown ups here. we can cope with the whole thing, Here are the other two verses.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.

The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

[DominicJ]

I think its likely the states will be like a large version of the Balkans, large multicultural states don't fall peacefully.

America, for the most part, isnt multicultural, its multi racial.
Its possible, that the US will be able to hold a multi racial society together through a overbearing USA'ism

EUrope however, well, we've spent 20-30 years telling our kids that "Theres no such thing as British Culture", leaving them with nothing but race to fall back on.

Tito held Yugoslavia together with Yugoslavianism, theres a chance an American will be able to hold together an "Americanism Front".
What would we have? Jon Snow telling the rampaging masses that we are all children of the world?

[SleeperService]

I think its likely the states will be like a large version of the Balkans, large multicultural states don't fall peacefully.

America, for the most part, isnt multicultural, its multi racial.
Its possible, that the US will be able to hold a multi racial society together through a overbearing USA'ism

EUrope however, well, we've spent 20-30 years telling our kids that "Theres no such thing as British Culture", leaving them with nothing but race to fall back on.

Tito held Yugoslavia together with Yugoslavianism, theres a chance an American will be able to hold together an "Americanism Front".
What would we have? Jon Snow telling the rampaging masses that we are all children of the world?

No, Tito held Yugoslavia togeather with an iron fist and the threat of Russian intervention. Tensions that had been building since 1945 finally exploded and the rest is history.

Across the rest of Europe the same tensions had been released soon after WW2 ended. (Nuremburg and shaved heads and beatings [usually] for collaboraters). Violence was on a smaller scale but much wider spread. The exception was Greece which had a rather nasty civil war.

DJ Agree that Excession is his best

[DominicJ]

No, Tito held Yugoslavia togeather with an iron fist and the threat of Russian intervention.

That too.....

America has the advantage that a vast majority believe they are American first and it wont take a vast push for that to hold that you can be an american christian/muslim, or an american black/white.

In the UK, we've been told that being british doesnt matter, that anyone who thinks asylum seekers shouldnt jump to the front of the benefits que is a racist and that racists beat up people with different skin colours.

It could get very very messy very quickly, and its hard to see a way back, even if you somehow reformed a pan British culture accetpable to anyone in London, how would you enforce it on Scotland, or Wales, or Northern Ireland, or Yorkshire.

[jonny2mad]

I think the whole idea of America is so tied to the American dream of consumption, and the whole political system is so corrupt and the people can see its corrupt, and this is going to get worse the disillusionment in the entire system will get worse and very quickly.

And at some point people will get the fact the whole things going to fall apart, then depending on your group allegiance your going to be thinking well what state am I going to end up in .

The changing demographics in the south west might kick it off with people setting up a Spanish state, or large scale race rioting like the LA riots, or it could be whites setting up a white homeland in the northwest there are lots of options

You have groups getting ready for this sort of thing now and with a strong central government they most likely would lose, but we are talking about a period where the central government is falling to pieces and has already lost a number of guerrilla wars abroad .

All these foreign wars have produced lots of guys with military experience the experience of being in actual wars, and not many prospects and they know that uncle Sam can get whomped, and how to do it .

You could ask yourself how many people does it take to cause something like the split up of India and a million dead or the Balkan wars , how do they start.

I think at the beginning you don't actually need that many people, and then the mass of the people start heading off to what they think of as safe areas and start defending their "own people" whoever they are.

You need people able to imagine that things would fall apart or separate and you need some flash-points and discontent , I think we are likely to get all of those things .

Anyway I don't think the idea of America is that strong anymore, I think the whole place is more likely to collapse than the former soviet union.

The question then is what happens to the heavy weapons the nukes biologicals etc etc, when Yugoslavia fell to pieces you just had people looting small arms tanks etc for their ethnic militia, and soviet union fell to pieces in quite a orderly way it could have been much worse, America falling well would be mighty interesting

[PhilSage]

The wild card in the US is the armed civillian, resisting a perceived tyranical government.

A scenario could be envisaged where a large number of dissafected take exception to being pepper sprayed, and come out with AR15s to open fire on anything looking like law enforcement or Federal authority.

A possible response would be for the military to seal the affected area(s) and give 48 hour's notice for the population to come out unarmed. Essentially a Fallujah scenario.

How many' Fallujahs' on US soil would it take before factions of the US army dissent?

Hypothetical I know but it could go that way in the US much more easily than most other places in the world.

[Lord Beria3]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/six-tail- ... -next-year

Interesting article on possible scenarios for 2012.