Thoughts on 2012

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 11 Dec 2011, 21:56

As we are nearing 2012, I felt that this would be a good opportunity to discuss general thoughts about next year and what it could bring.

I have always felt that on a gut level that 2012 would be the great year of transition from the BAU to something new - a era of at best stagnation rather than growth, and more likely contraction and a more general recognition that oil production will start to contract every year from 2012.

This is going to see the collapse in confidence of our debt based economic system which requires growth to survive. For me, 2012 could be a potentially massive year for the world, not just the eurozone.

The euro crisis is just one manifestation of a bigger macro issue of debt, lack of growth and of course the elephant in the room, Peak Oil.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 11 Dec 2011, 23:01

Five years ago I rather rashly predicted that the London Olympics would have to be cancelled due to a Typhoid outbreak. And that there's be scrappies plying their trade in our street (this is now happening!) and that among other things they'd be selling seaweed (this is not yet happening, but if it did I would seriously think of buying).

When you think that a year ago none of the Arab-spring stuff was even dreamed-of, well you get the idea.

I predict, though, that we'll still be wittering about "war in Iran", and it will still not have happened

After all, they're not going to want to accept Euros for their oil now, are they??

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 12 Dec 2011, 09:31

Well, for me, I'll be buying that land behind my house (pretty much off moving now) and extending the house, hopefully a proper extention, but might be glass roof, depends on cost.
The chickies have done a good job degrassing the garden, so can level that and get some micro veg patches going (practice before I move production onto the back patch).
Definatly considering switching to a gas hob, so I'll have a gas hob / electric oven combo.With a bit of luck, we'll have cleared all of the debts too (except the mortgage), but that depends how long I'm out of work for.

In the wider world, its harder to tell.
Monetarily...
In the US, only Ron Paul is wittering on about sound money, so expect no change over there, King has proven he'll do as he's told, so expect no 1930s style disaster. No such luck for the Eurozone though, Germany seems hell bent on forcing through wage deflation, which will almost certainly get violent in the satraps and lead to defaults that'll bring down banks.

Oily....
Fracking will occur, either with Huhnes blessing, or with a new energy minister, possibly mollified with a fig leaf "Frack Tax / Renewable Subsidy" arrangement, but then government will be cash strapped, so dont hold your breath.
Theres a slim possibility we'll see a gas engined concept car being talked about

I dont expect anything big to happen, but we are surrounded by Outside Context Problems, any one of which could say hello and ruin* our predicitions.

*The big one I'm interested in is a combined gas central heating electrical generator system,
http://www.baxi.co.uk/products/ecogen.htm
Last winter we came right to the door step of rolling black outs, imagine if one million, or even ten million homes were all "co generating" 1kw, well, thats an extra 1 and 10 gw respectivly.
Far bigger change than windmills.

Post by **adam2** » 12 Dec 2011, 09:44

I predict that 2012 will be similar to 2011, but a bit worse.
A great crash or disaster is certainly possible but I consider a steady decline more likely.

Unemployment, moderatly increased.
Inflation up a bit.
Crime increased, but not hugely
Street disorder and rioting on the increase.
More bank failures/bailouts.
A slight increase in utility failures.
Rising energy costs.
An increase in property damage and loss of life due to extreme weather.

extractorfan · Post by **extractorfan** » 12 Dec 2011, 10:56

Imagining a collapse of the Euro that the UK banking sector withstands I predict quite high inflation (not hyper) but a general short term boom caused by rich europeans wanting to put their cash in something perceived as safe, Sterling.

I will have insulated the loft in the new house (walls are already done) and by end of year enquired about some kind of solar heat or electric system.

I'll be cycling to work a lot and brewing more of my own beer.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Dec 2011, 11:06

I think 2012 will prove to be the year when it becomes clear to (almost) the entire population that the human race has reached a pivotal moment in its history. I believe that all sorts of people will find themselves asking questions they never expected to ask, and doubting things they never expected to doubt, in response to things happening in the world that they never expected to happen.

Post by **clv101** » 12 Dec 2011, 11:26

UndercoverElephant wrote:I think 2012 will prove to be the year when it becomes clear to (almost) the entire population that the human race has reached a pivotal moment in its history.

I expect X-Factor and Strictly to have another few years to run, and while they are still running we'll remain a long way from almost the entire population recognising any pivotal moment.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 12 Dec 2011, 11:34

adam2 wrote:I predict that 2012 will be similar to 2011, but a bit worse.
A great crash or disaster is certainly possible but I consider a steady decline more likely.

Dunno... Generally what you get in any historical process is steady declines, or steady build-ups of unseen tension, punctuated by profound shocks.

What makes profound shocks more likely is continuing along an unsustainable path regardless of the warning signs, thus increasing rather than reducing underlying tensions and pushing things more forcefully towards breaking point.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 12 Dec 2011, 11:38

I hope to have relocated me and family, started a new job, moved most of our savings into hard assets, and started integrating into a new community, further away from the south east.

I hope I haven't left it too late to up sticks, even if it is to a very similar small city not too far away.

It will be a busy year, upgrading new home towards a low energy future.

stumuzz · Post by **stumuzz** » 12 Dec 2011, 11:57

Euro will probably hold together but with govs' realising that growth will not save the day.

Further cuts will be made to spending because politicians will realise that it cannot be put on the nations credit card for the "childa peeps" to pay.

There will be exponential increase in SME's.

There will be an increase in SME manufacturing/manuservices.

More genuine community groups will spring up e.g. food purchase groups, food prep groups, stuff sharing groups.

More self help and less state help.

Some airlines will go bust. I don't think I will fly to egypt in Jan 13 for £159.

There could be a small debt amnesty or direct printed cash given to each tax payer.

We will become more ghettoised.

Land value tax will be seriously discussed.

Norm · Post by **Norm** » 12 Dec 2011, 12:06

With what I believe may happen in 2012, I just sold several Euro based mutual funds and converted the cash into Swedish Krona. Will look to perhaps buy some forested land with it. Also planning to buy 2 electric bikes (any recommendations). I still hold Sterling and US dollar mutual funds and am thinking of liquidating them pretty sharpish as well.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 12 Dec 2011, 12:41

2012

I hope the OWS movement spreads, matures and takes down a major government.

I hope to finish insulating the downstairs which I never got round to in 2011, grrrrr.

I hope Ireland leaves the euro and defaults on its debts but I know, this is highly unlikely.

I hope our apples do better.

I hope for a little more sunshine.

I hope fifthcolumn comes back to cheer us up with his brand of doom and gloom.

I hope, if a nuclear power station is built anywhere, it's within An Inspector Calls' view. Actually no, I'm simply not that cruel.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 12 Dec 2011, 13:05

UndercoverElephant wrote:I believe that all sorts of people will find themselves asking questions they never expected to ask, and doubting things they never expected to doubt, in response to things happening in the world that they never expected to happen.

Very quoteworthy!

SleeperService · Post by **SleeperService** » 12 Dec 2011, 13:16

Pretty much in agreement with everybody so far about more of the same. I also think that we'll see a surge in retail chain collapses early in the year many are just hanging on by their fingertips at the moment.

I have noticed a general increase in interest in the economy, or more especially, realisation that things are a lot worse than many people thought. I hope this morphs into positive action even if it's limited to just buying less stuff.

'Outside Context Problem' are you another Iain M Banks fan DJ?

Personally I'm going to get myself in a much better position financially, that may include downsizing my house. I'm sorting everything out with a view to a clearout in February in any case.

I hope that UE is right and the result is positive rather than another diversionary military campaign.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 12 Dec 2011, 13:17

DominicJ wrote: In the US, only Ron Paul is wittering on about sound money, so expect no change over there, King has proven he'll do as he's told, so expect no 1930s style disaster. No such luck for the Eurozone though, Germany seems hell bent on forcing through wage deflation, which will almost certainly get violent in the satraps and lead to defaults that'll bring down banks.

How can we stop a 1930s-style disaster, at some point?

Germany is trying to force the issue now, while we are playing for time, imagining (it seems) we can forestall the inevitable.

It's nonsense to imagine that when you are bankrupt, you can stave off the consequences indefinitely by clever tricks. There is no substitute in the long term for genuine wealth, and all bankrupt countries have to face, sooner or later, the consequences of their bankruptcy.

It didn't make any fundamental difference what Cameron did; it's far too late for it to matter.