Collapse could happen, literally, overnight

[RogueMale]

Cuba did so "well" because its government stopped trying to stamp out subsistance farming, North Korea did so much worse because its government carried on its collectivisation.

The idea that Cuba suffered "no collapse"

There was the "special period", with considerable economic contraction but, as you say, "no collapse."

rather ignores that its still worse off than it was pre Castro Dictatorship.

Worse off, in what sense? Before Castro, there was the Batista dictatorship. Cuba under Castro could have done better economically, were it not for the US trade embargo.

Life expectancy today is almost exactly the same as that of the US.

[biffvernon]

Cuba - Haiti. Contrast and compare.

[Nicko]

TPTB want to achieve one main thing - a reduction in numbers that are using up all the resources.

Are we talking globally or specifically the UK?

Nicko

[clv101]

I would like to put on record, that I concur with Ludwig and Beria on there general expectations. I do believe plans are afoot by TPTB who ever they may be.

I simply don't think TPTB have a huge latent power that they simply aren't exercising yet. There is no giant secret budget, secret 'service'. TPTB are just a bunch of normal people in normal civil servant roles, with resources stretched to the limit to keep the show on the road.

...going by the last 10 or 11 years, false flag events seem a very likely expectation to enable "us" to import democracy to some more foreign countries and gain access to the resources "we" need. We all know "our" oil in under "their" sand! We will do what we have to do to retrieve it. How can we look for a clearer example than Libya?

But it doesn't work though does it! It'd been decades if not a century since proactive physical force has "gained access to resources". In Iraq it would have been an order of magnitude cheaper just to buy the oil from Saddam, as we do with the House of Saud. Libya is anything but a clear example - again, the people of Libya were more than happy to sell their oil. It really isn't as simple as "our" oil under "their" sand. China is proving more successful in gaining access to others resources - without a Chinese bullet being fired.

TPTB want to achieve one main thing - a reduction in numbers that are using up all the resources.

I don't believe this for a moment. Barely a single country in the world has a policy of population reduction, in fact the opposite. Many countries are proactively trying to increase their populations. If TPTB really wanted a reduction in numbers at the very least wouldn't be spending money on pro-growth policies! In my opinion TPTB are more concerned about the problems associated with an aging population than numbers using up all the resources.

I certainly wouldn't want to live in London and I've thought that since 2001 - maybe I'm just a big yellow belly!

That I can certainly agree with!

[featherstick]

I
Hope I am completely wrong, but that's my gut feeling..... I certainly wouldn't want to live in London and I've thought that since 2001 - maybe I'm just a big yellow belly!

But TPTB won't go for the wealthiest, most productive area that is also the seat of power, will they? Most likely some marginal resource sink, isolated from the mainland, that no-one really cares about, but with enough people that the "crisis" can be spun to greatest effect. Somewhere like... Belfast, for instance.

[Lord Beria3]

Just to clarify, I don't agree with Ludwig that theTPTB are planning some kind of massive terror attack and/or deliberate population reduction, yet.

Whilst I see some unpleasantness coming, these are more the logical conclusions of a collapsing system - something that the ruling elites are desperately trying to keep on the road as we speak.

The logic of the system is driving us towards dictatorship and war, but this doesn't mean that the ruling elites 'want' this to happen, its just the endgame as various other option are closed.

[RenewableCandy]

I think everyone with any clout is petrified of anything that stymies "economic growth"...and drastically reducing populations will most definitely do that!

[phobos]

Some of you may be interested in this blog:

http://ferfal.blogspot.com/

This guy lived in Argentina during their recent problems and has plenty you can learn from if you see this potentially happening here.

[snow hope]

TPTB want to achieve one main thing - a reduction in numbers that are using up all the resources.

Are we talking globally or specifically the UK?

Nicko

I suspect at both levels.

[Nicko]

TPTB want to achieve one main thing - a reduction in numbers that are using up all the resources.

Are we talking globally or specifically the UK?

Nicko

I suspect at both levels.

So a strike on the east or west coast of the USA would have the greatest effect. Maybe a Superman stylie missile along the San Andreas fault would do the trick.

Nicko

[Ludwig]

Are we talking globally or specifically the UK?

Nicko

I suspect at both levels.

So a strike on the east or west coast of the USA would have the greatest effect. Maybe a Superman stylie missile along the San Andreas fault would do the trick.

Nicko

It's possible they wouldn't need a missile: http://beforeitsnews.com/story/20/951/A ... e_War.html

[snow hope]

I would like to put on record, that I concur with Ludwig and Beria on there general expectations. I do believe plans are afoot by TPTB who ever they may be.

I simply don't think TPTB have a huge latent power that they simply aren't exercising yet. There is no giant secret budget, secret 'service'. TPTB are just a bunch of normal people in normal civil servant roles, with resources stretched to the limit to keep the show on the road.

Well if there were a secret budget, you or I certainly wouldn't know what size the budget was! You don't know who TPTB are; neither do I. If you think they are normal civil servants and MPs or Ministers, then this proves the fact, but of course I can't prove differently. There are always resources that can be/or are available. Even small to medium sized companies can usually find resources/money when they need to - I do know this for a fact.

...going by the last 10 or 11 years, false flag events seem a very likely expectation to enable "us" to import democracy to some more foreign countries and gain access to the resources "we" need. We all know "our" oil in under "their" sand! We will do what we have to do to retrieve it. How can we look for a clearer example than Libya?

But it doesn't work though does it! It'd been decades if not a century since proactive physical force has "gained access to resources". In Iraq it would have been an order of magnitude cheaper just to buy the oil from Saddam, as we do with the House of Saud. Libya is anything but a clear example - again, the people of Libya were more than happy to sell their oil. It really isn't as simple as "our" oil under "their" sand. China is proving more successful in gaining access to others resources - without a Chinese bullet being fired.

I am being ironic regarding "our oil under their sand" as I am sure you realise, but I can't really agree with that interpretation Chris. The West and their corporations now control the oil production in Iraq and are being called into Libya with the same controlling involvement. The West have permanent military bases in Iraq and Afganistan - in the middle of the ME. This is intentional and I think it extremely likely they will make further inroads into controlling other oil resources in the ME over the next decade. Saddam and Gaddafi both rebelled against the terms of business for oil with the West - they are now both dead. This wasn't by accident and send a very clear message! Buying oil (the alternative path) as you suggest doesn't work when you have no money left - Greece proves it. The West is not rich any more, no matter how much coloured paper they print.

TPTB want to achieve one main thing - a reduction in numbers that are using up all the resources.

I don't believe this for a moment. Barely a single country in the world has a policy of population reduction, in fact the opposite. Many countries are proactively trying to increase their populations. If TPTB really wanted a reduction in numbers at the very least wouldn't be spending money on pro-growth policies! In my opinion TPTB are more concerned about the problems associated with an aging population than numbers using up all the resources.

I hope you are right. But surely population growth policies are because of the aging populations? If a country wishes to reduce its population then it is very unlikely it will announce that intention. Govts. don't tell you what they are really trying to do you know? Okay China did with its one child policy, but look at the reaction they got. Occasionally I find you a little naieve, but don't take that as a criticism, I was far more naieve and less world-aware at your age! You seem to be a very wise head on young shoulders, but I have been around for a couple more decades than you and I think that there really are people who are mad enough to want to reduce numbers at a country/regional/global level. It is a horrible thought, but shit happens, ask anybody who lived through WW2 and what about the death camps set-up by the Nazis - how many million did they gas to death? That is what humans are capable of - unfortunately.

I certainly wouldn't want to live in London and I've thought that since 2001 - maybe I'm just a big yellow belly!

That I can certainly agree with!

Which bit? Not living in London or the big yellow belly!

[Potemkin Villager]

But LB!!! prefers the ravings of some psychotic Yank, thinking yay, that's my future - for the puerile reason that perfectly practical (and, note, peaceful) plans have acquired some taint of middle-class air. Sheesh.

Well I must say LB3 seems to getting good at pushing peoples buttons
if little else. This is quite an interesting example of the outpouring and finessing of latent doomer gestalt that can be triggered by considering fictional depictions of things rapidly going to pieces.

I don't think he is that psycho, he just wants to jazz up the story to ensure he sells a good few books and makes a good few bucks to enhance his pension! Expressions like dodgy dossiers and sexing things up spring to mind.

Perhaps the effect could be further enhanced by a fictional account of going from bau to bust with a bit of m.a.d. added in 90 minutes! Say an evil computer virus that affects both ATMs, EFTs and NORAD equally?

[clv101]

Well if there were a secret budget, you or I certainly wouldn't know what size the budget was! You don't know who TPTB are; neither do I. If you think they are normal civil servants and MPs or Ministers, then this proves the fact, but of course I can't prove differently. There are always resources that can be/or are available. Even small to medium sized companies can usually find resources/money when they need to - I do know this for a fact.

True. One can't prove a negative. I guess my world view is one of "cock-up" over "conspiracy". I find the idea of the state having massive latent powers, held in reserve, unrealistic. For all the criticisms of our government, I do feel it's one of the more transparent in the world with far far lower levels of corruption than most.

Buying oil (the alternative path) as you suggest doesn't work when you have no money left - Greece proves it. The West is not rich any more, no matter how much coloured paper they print.

I did consider this, but came to the conclusion that it would always cost far more to maintain a standing army in a far off region than just buy the oil. If we can afford the take the oil militarily - we could have afforded to just buy it five times over! In the scenario where we are poor and can't afford to buy it (like Greece today) - no way will we be able to afford the long term military expense of extracting/transporting against the will of the people.

I hope you are right. But surely population growth policies are because of the aging populations? If a country wishes to reduce its population then it is very unlikely it will announce that intention. Govts. don't tell you what they are really trying to do you know? Okay China did with its one child policy, but look at the reaction they got.

Sure it's not a popular thing to announce - but so many countries are proactively increasing. That's not just not announcing!

Occasionally I find you a little naieve, but don't take that as a criticism, I was far more naieve and less world-aware at your age! You seem to be a very wise head on young shoulders, but I have been around for a couple more decades than you and I think that there really are people who are mad enough to want to reduce numbers at a country/regional/global level. It is a horrible thought, but shit happens, ask anybody who lived through WW2 and what about the death camps set-up by the Nazis - how many million did they gas to death? That is what humans are capable of - unfortunately.

I've been immersed in this peak oil / collapse / geopolitics / environment discussion for around eight years now, read at least a couple dozen books specifically on energy, geopolitics and collapse, not to mention more than half of what's been written on The Oil Drum. I started blogging about it in 2004. Over the time I think I've become very good at distinguishing between hype, fantasy and reality. I did my time (2004-07, over 1000 posts!) on peakoil.com, even read all of Mike Ruppert's rants up until around 2007, have attended more than my fare share of ASPO conferences (Italy, Boston, Ireland, Spain, Belgium) and many others both in the UK and elsewhere. I don't think "naive" is the right word, but I do think my views have moderated over time - principally due to the things I've learnt.

Maybe the Chinese will nuke the US on Friday, Israel release a genetically engineered virus on Sunday or the British government may announced a phased cut in feed in tariffs next week. It's a crazy world - but very rarely as crazy as a lot of people often make out.

[snow hope]

Good retort.

Yes, I know you are widely read and researched on the subject, which is why I always read your posts with interest. I often agree with you, but also finding myself disagreeing with your belief in the UK Govt and the general goodness of people / society. Naive probably was the wrong word, although I didn't mean it at all in relation to PO, etc, more to do with the nature of people and their leaders, etc. There is no doubt one becomes more cynical as time passes, but often for good reason.....

When bad things happen and there are a lot of bad things to come in my opinion, then we will see the bad side of a lot of people and I think we have to face this reality head-on and not hope that it won't be too bad and that TT will win through and it will be okay, because I am sorry, but it really won't.

I have taken a mental note to repeat each morning when I get up and before I go to bed, that although the world appears to be crazy, it really isn't as crazy as I thought it was.

I'll come back in three months and let you know whether I have managed to convince myself.