Collapse could happen, literally, overnight

[Catweazle]

The inertia of BAU is much greater than I realised back in 2005..... thank goodness.

Indeed. I hope that inertia will grant us a long slow crash so that people will have time to adjust and prepare.

What scares me is the period between a fast crash and society gelling and pulling together. That is the danger period, hopefully short, when shock, anger and desperation will force people into behaviour they would normally find abhorrent. If we can keep order until community spirit emerges we have a chance of keeping civilised.

What I can't understand is how few people see the decline coming, only a few people I know are even slightly concerned. They can't believe I'm bugging out to a smallholding, it's like I've suggested moving to the Moon. I'm seriously thinking of buying a few caravans whilst they're cheap, so if it gets nasty they can come over for a while and ride out the storm.

[biffvernon]

I'm getting confused now. I thought it was the '99%' who believe there is a problem and want to do something about it. Or is that a different problem? Or a different 99%?

Nick

Yes, note that I wrote Other 99% with a capitalised Other. Two sets of 99% though with a large intersecting subset.

[biffvernon]

...the final collapse of the Soviet Union, .... Or is it more like Argentina in 2002?

These were clearly far from final, and were the sort of situations where transition type ideas like growing veg and payments in local currencies proved to be practical if not vital. We could add post-Soviet-aid Cuba where the transition type ideas were so successful there really was no collapse at all.

[clv101]

These were clearly far from final...

I'm only considering the down slope of other declines, not the following rise, which are always strongly influenced by 'rest of the world' performance which doesn't seem appropriate in today's situation.

...the final collapse of the Soviet Union, .... Or is it more like Argentina in 2002?

These were clearly far from final, and were the sort of situations where transition type ideas like growing veg and payments in local currencies proved to be practical if not vital. We could add post-Soviet-aid Cuba where the transition type ideas were so successful there really was no collapse at all.

And post-Soviet-aid North Korea where the transition type ideas played no obvious part and instead maintenance of BAU was attempted and "from a population of 22 million, between 900,000 and 3.5 million people died from starvation or hunger-related illnesses".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine

[DominicJ]

Cuba did so "well" because its government stopped trying to stamp out subsistance farming, North Korea did so much worse because its government carried on its collectivisation.

The idea that cuba suffered "no collapse" rather ignores that its still worse off than it was pre Castro Dictatorship.

[Ludwig]

This is my point, what does "everything else with it" actually mean? Is this final collapse analogous (in quantifiable terms like GPD, health outcomes etc.) to the final collapse of the Soviet Union, or something more severe, or milder? What happens to the UK population, within two years, during a collapse that takes everything else with it? Up by a million, down by a million, down by 10 million or stays roughly the same? Does everything else with it actually mean a scenario like that described in Last Light? Or is it more like Argentina in 2002? These are hugely different scenarios, with an Argentina like event 100 times more likely (in my opinion) within the next two years than Last Light.

The difficulty is that from your "very specific prediction" I'm not sure which of those two, hugely different scenarios you are predicting.

Argentina in 2002 was very, very bad indeed. A large proportion of the population was "living" by scavenging cardboard and selling it for recycling. Unemployment was 25%. It wasn't safe to walk the streets.

Remember: all this time Argentina had things to export. We won't be so lucky.

My gut feeling is that some huge change is going to take place next year. I believe that TPTB have been making plans for dealing with PO, and that these plans concern only their own well-being and survival. We will see these plans roll out very quickly, because they have been prepared long in advance.

There will be a huge false flag terror event that will be used to justify the final removal of what remains of our civil liberties; and/or a massive viral outbreak "vaccinations" for which will be compulsory; the rounding up of troublemakers and poor people into detention camps of some sort (there are already plans in place to exacuate London).

One way or another, TPTB are going to try to kill off enough people that the situation becomes managable.

[clv101]

Argentina in 2002 was very, very bad indeed. A large proportion of the population was "living" by scavenging cardboard and selling it for recycling. Unemployment was 25%. It wasn't safe to walk the streets.

Remember: all this time Argentina had things to export. We won't be so lucky.

My gut feeling is that some huge change is going to take place next year. I believe that TPTB have been making plans for dealing with PO, and that these plans concern only their own well-being and survival. We will see these plans roll out very quickly, because they have been prepared long in advance.

I don't have as much faith in the powers/planning ability of TPTB. The numbers of police/military are trivial if serious national scale actions are attempted. Evidence from events (natural disaster, terrorist attacks etc), both in the UK and in other countries, provide little evidence for national latent capability of doing significant stuff. I prefer the idea that the state is pretty much operating at capacity already and the resources simply don't exist to rapidly put into action a significant 'plan'.

Regarding Argentina, whilst it was bad - it was a million miles from the scenario in Last Light. Unemployment was only 25%.

There will be a huge false flag terror event that will be used to justify the final removal of what remains of our civil liberties; and/or a massive viral outbreak "vaccinations" for which will be compulsory; the rounding up of troublemakers and poor people into detention camps of some sort (there are already plans in place to exacuate London).

One way or another, TPTB are going to try to kill off enough people that the situation becomes managable.

Now we're getting some specifics, are you saying that in 2012 or at latest 2013 we'll see?
"huge false flag terror event" In the UK? Numbers, of the scale of 9/11 or London tube bombings?
"and/or a massive viral outbreak "vaccinations" for which will be compulsory" Numbers - how many people infected, 100s or millions? Deaths?
"rounding up of troublemakers and poor people into detention camps of some sort" Numbers - how many, hundreds (in prisons) or tens of thousands (in camps)?
"TPTB are going to try to kill off enough people that the situation becomes managable" Numbers - to have an impact on manageability, hundreds of thousands?

If you think this is likely to happen in the UK in the next year or two what on Earth are you still doing here?! Why not move to the Azores, the climate is great, it's 900 miles from mainland, low population, run down house with enough land to grow most of your own food and be had for few tens of thousands of quid.

[DominicJ]

I actualy read a blog on the Azores, its more the super rich playing farmer, but its entertaining none the less. Hell of an idea for doomsteading though.

Although they are hardly depopulated, at over 100 per square km (half the UK), they're extensive fishing grounds could no doubt help that.

Still, nice small holding on Corvo, if only....

[Ludwig]

There will be a huge false flag terror event that will be used to justify the final removal of what remains of our civil liberties; and/or a massive viral outbreak "vaccinations" for which will be compulsory; the rounding up of troublemakers and poor people into detention camps of some sort (there are already plans in place to exacuate London).

One way or another, TPTB are going to try to kill off enough people that the situation becomes managable.

Now we're getting some specifics, are you saying that in 2012 or at latest 2013 we'll see?
"huge false flag terror event" In the UK? Numbers, of the scale of 9/11 or London tube bombings?
"and/or a massive viral outbreak "vaccinations" for which will be compulsory" Numbers - how many people infected, 100s or millions? Deaths?
"rounding up of troublemakers and poor people into detention camps of some sort" Numbers - how many, hundreds (in prisons) or tens of thousands (in camps)?

So I gave a prediction as specific as I felt able to give, and you are demanding that I be more specific, presumably so I can be proved wrong? That's not fair!

The terror attack I'm guessing would be pretty big - it would have to be, to justify the ensuing abolishion of civil liberties and war in the Middle East. Otherwise, I cannot think of a way the Government could justify these things without massive civil unrest.

I'm not saying I'm certain of this. I don't have second sight. It's just my surmise from a lot of reading.

"TPTB are going to try to kill off enough people that the situation becomes managable" Numbers - to have an impact on manageability, hundreds of thousands?

No, millions.

If you think this is likely to happen in the UK in the next year or two what on Earth are you still doing here?! Why not move to the Azores, the climate is great, it's 900 miles from mainland, low population, run down house with enough land to grow most of your own food and be had for few tens of thousands of quid.

One reason: I have family here. I am close to my parents, and I don't feel I can abandon them. They don't "get" Peak Oil, and have made it clear to me they would never contemplate emigrating.

If it weren't for that, I'd have been out of here years ago, no question. New Zealand probably has most appeal; Canada wouldn't be out of the question - lots of space, a balanced budget, and actively looking for immigrants, especially ones who can speak French like me.

[clv101]

So I gave a prediction as specific as I felt able to give, and you are demanding that I be more specific, presumably so I can be proved wrong? That's not fair!

It's not about proving you wrong, it's to clarify meaning.

What you mean by "huge false flag terror event" or "massive viral outbreak" could be completely different to what someone else means by the same words. If, however you say "several thousand killed in a false flag terror event on the scale of 9/11" or "10 million+ infected in a massive viral outbreak with fatality rates around 10% (1 million dead)". Then we know what events you are actually thinking of.

[Ludwig]

What you mean by "huge false flag terror event" or "massive viral outbreak" could be completely different to what someone else means by the same words. If, however you say "several thousand killed in a false flag terror event on the scale of 9/11" or "10 million+ infected in a massive viral outbreak with fatality rates around 10% (1 million dead)". Then we know what events you are actually thinking of.

Yes, my guess is something along the lines of what you say. Please bear in mind that this guess is based purely on circumstantial evidence and patterns of previous events; TPTB might well have other things up their sleeves. Conversely, things may slip out of their control despite all the measures I suspect they've put in place.

One thing I am fairly sure of is that martial law will be declared in the UK following global economic collapse. I also think it almost certain that the reason given for the imposition of martial law will not be the real one. What sane government would say, "We're running out of oil, there is no hope of things getting better, and we're imposing a dictatorship to stop you lot making a nuisance of yourselves"?

Sorry to be so doomerish again... But this is how I see things.

[Lord Beria3]

Interesting Ludwig.

Like you, I share the sense that 2012/2013 (at the latest) is the year in which the paradigm shifts fundamentally.

I have referred to this, copying Greer, of the transition from abundant industrialism to the new era of scarcity industrialism. This transition will not be pleasant; martial law, nationalised banking systems, capital controls, high unemployment (Argentina's levels), double digit inflation (possibily tipping into hyperinflation), civil unrest and quite possibily terror attacks (whether false flag or not, it probably doesn't matter. People will die either way) and a accerlerated collapse of world trade and rise of resource wars.

I think that 2012 will be the start of this transition, probably starting with a big bang, but it is better understood as a process rather than a sudden crash.

So, to summarise, the coming years will be on par with the Russian/Argentinian collapse - bad but not terrible.

[cubes]

Martial law? Will we even have a military left to enforce this by then?

Or would it be limited to 'important' places such as London and the rest of us left to fend for ourselves?

[JavaScriptDonkey]

Martial law? Will we even have a military left to enforce this by then?

Or would it be limited to 'important' places such as London and the rest of us left to fend for ourselves?

only if we are lucky.

[snow hope]

I would like to put on record, that I concur with Ludwig and Beria on there general expectations. I do believe plans are afoot by TPTB who ever they may be. I also think there may be a "big bang" or at the very least some dirty bombs (plural). I also agree with the kinds of number being mentioned - millions....... whether it is caused by Resources Wars or WW3 or "terrorism" is hard to guess, although I expect the former. For instance, going by the last 10 or 11 years, false flag events seem a very likely expectation to enable "us" to import democracy to some more foreign countries and gain access to the resources "we" need. We all know "our" oil in under "their" sand! We will do what we have to do to retrieve it. How can we look for a clearer example than Libya?

TPTB want to achieve one main thing - a reduction in numbers that are using up all the resources. If this is achieved then they will meet their undoubted objectives. It may well be by a viral infection, which is why I found swine flu and (worse) avian flu to be so concerning.

Hope I am completely wrong, but that's my gut feeling..... I certainly wouldn't want to live in London and I've thought that since 2001 - maybe I'm just a big yellow belly!