Greece to hold European debt deal referendum

[UndercoverElephant]

Greece refused bailout money until after referendum.

Shit is hitting the fan.

[adam2]

Greece refused bailout money until after referendum.

Shit is hitting the fan.

Yes, I suspect that they hoped to take the money and then vote on whether to give it back or not.
It now looks as though they wont receive the latest bailout money.

[UndercoverElephant]

I think Paul Mason got it bang on the money on last night's Newsnight. He said that this marks a new phase in the crisis - the one where there is a shift from trying to avoid a disaster to everybody covering their own backsides, trying to blame other people and protect their own interests on the assumption that the disaster is now unavoidable. This really is the endgame for the eurozone.

[alternative-energy]

Greece refused bailout money until after referendum.

Shit is hitting the fan.

I would not be surprised to see capital controls implemented in Greece within the next couple of weeks.

[UndercoverElephant]

There's major shit going on now...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15568915

Greek referendum: Papandreou losing MPs' support

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou appears to heading for defeat in a vote of confidence after mounting opposition within his own party to a surprise referendum call on the EU bailout plan.

Mr Papandreou's Pasok party holds a slim majority, 152 out of 300 seats.

The Greek cabinet is now meeting in emergency session.

The row threatened to overshadow a meeting of the G20 in Cannes, where leading industrialised nations are to discuss the eurozone debt crisis.

Several government ministers have criticised the idea of a referendum.

Four of his ministers are threatening to vote against him on the referendum bill, and he only has a parliamentary majority of 1. That means it looks like the Greek government might collapse because it cannot agree with itself on whether or not to hold the referendum. That in turn leads to elections. I can't see how this process can be rescued now. It's all falling to pieces rather quickly.

[alternative-energy]

There's major shit going on now...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15568915

Greek referendum: Papandreou losing MPs' support

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou appears to heading for defeat in a vote of confidence after mounting opposition within his own party to a surprise referendum call on the EU bailout plan.

Mr Papandreou's Pasok party holds a slim majority, 152 out of 300 seats.

The Greek cabinet is now meeting in emergency session.

The row threatened to overshadow a meeting of the G20 in Cannes, where leading industrialised nations are to discuss the eurozone debt crisis.

Several government ministers have criticised the idea of a referendum.

Four of his ministers are threatening to vote against him on the referendum bill, and he only has a parliamentary majority of 1. That means it looks like the Greek government might collapse because it cannot agree with itself on whether or not to hold the referendum. That in turn leads to elections. I can't see how this process can be rescued now. It's all falling to pieces rather quickly.

Edit for clarity
Following a vote of no confidence I take it that Papandreou would still lead the party? If not, would his Pasok party still seek a mandate from the people for a referendum? Would any other parties wish to take the referendum route?
Elections would be taking place as the country implodes due to the next bailout money being withheld. Yes, it's is major shit. I can't believe the S. market isn't lower.

[UndercoverElephant]

There's major shit going on now...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15568915

Greek referendum: Papandreou losing MPs' support

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou appears to heading for defeat in a vote of confidence after mounting opposition within his own party to a surprise referendum call on the EU bailout plan.

Mr Papandreou's Pasok party holds a slim majority, 152 out of 300 seats.

The Greek cabinet is now meeting in emergency session.

The row threatened to overshadow a meeting of the G20 in Cannes, where leading industrialised nations are to discuss the eurozone debt crisis.

Several government ministers have criticised the idea of a referendum.

Four of his ministers are threatening to vote against him on the referendum bill, and he only has a parliamentary majority of 1. That means it looks like the Greek government might collapse because it cannot agree with itself on whether or not to hold the referendum. That in turn leads to elections. I can't see how this process can be rescued now. It's all falling to pieces rather quickly.

So would one of the parties, Pasok perhaps, seek a mandate for a referendum or would no parties wish to take this route?

God only knows. This particular part of this saga is moving so fast and unpredictably that almost anything could happen.

His own party (Pasok) is clearly not fully behind him on this, so who can say whether they'd seek a mandate for a referendum at any emergency elections. There's too many conflicts of interests here....what are the priorities of the Greek MPs going to be? Their own political future? The future of Greece? The future of the EU? And even if they can decide which of these priorities to put first it is not clear whether they should support the idea of a referendum or not, or even which way they should vote at that referendum....is it really in Greece's long term interest to accept even more austerity and stay in the Euro? Cos I don't think it is...

All I can see in my crystal ball is a descent into chaos: the "disorderly default" which triggers the Credit Default Swap Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction to go off. I think it is very likely that if there are going to be elections shortly in Greece that the Greek people are likely to elect an even more fractured Parliament than the one that currently exists, because far more people will vote for fringe parties which aren't seen as being responsible for presiding over this unholy mess.

[alternative-energy]

All I can see in my crystal ball is a descent into chaos: the "disorderly default" which triggers the Credit Default Swap Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction to go off. I think it is very likely that if there are going to be elections shortly in Greece that the Greek people are likely to elect an even more fractured Parliament than the one that currently exists, because far more people will vote for fringe parties which aren't seen as being responsible for presiding over this unholy mess.

Yes, a hung parliament looks certain. It would appear clear, as was the case with the last bailout package, that everything possible will be done to ensure that a CDS event is not triggered. Is that because the size of the CDS market on Greek debt is massive and the banks never had the cash to honour them or because the contagion risk to other countries?
(Probably a bit of both)

[Ludwig]

There's too many conflicts of interests here....what are the priorities of the Greek MPs going to be? Their own political future? The future of Greece? The future of the EU?

This is a problem that will be played out throughout the world.

Q: Who would want to lead a country in the current situation?

A: Opportunists, psychopaths, and idealists with no grip on reality.

Not a great choice, but the alternative is anarchy, which isn't great either. Though IMO total anarchy could never last long: we'd probably see the emergence of local warlords quite quickly.

[biffvernon]

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou is expected to offer his resignation within the next half-hour, sources in Athens have told the BBC.

Mr Papandreou will meet Greek President Karolos Papoulios immediately after an emergency cabinet meeting has finished.

He is expected to offer a coalition government, with former Greek central banker Lucas Papademos at the helm.

Mr Papandreou himself would stand down, the BBC understands.

[PS_RalphW]

I guess the referendum is cancelled, a *anker is put in charge, paper over the cracks and *uck the people and a democratic vote.

Until next month...

[UndercoverElephant]

All I can see in my crystal ball is a descent into chaos: the "disorderly default" which triggers the Credit Default Swap Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction to go off. I think it is very likely that if there are going to be elections shortly in Greece that the Greek people are likely to elect an even more fractured Parliament than the one that currently exists, because far more people will vote for fringe parties which aren't seen as being responsible for presiding over this unholy mess.

Yes, a hung parliament looks certain. It would appear clear, as was the case with the last bailout package, that everything possible will be done to ensure that a CDS event is not triggered. Is that because the size of the CDS market on Greek debt is massive and the banks never had the cash to honour them or because the contagion risk to other countries?
(Probably a bit of both)

It's the contagion that is the real killer, I think. The moment a disorderly Greek default occurs, Italian and Spanish debt becomes uninsurable.

[biffvernon]

I like the way someone on the News at One pointed out that the Greeks not only invented democracy but also the words 'crisis' and 'chaos'.

[PS_RalphW]

For now chaos still reigns. PM says he is not resigning.

Markets are still up, presumable because the Euro interest rate is cut to 1.25%.

[biffvernon]

Latest news from twitter: Greek government halts production of hummus and taramasalata. Europe braced for a double-dip recession