Arctic sea ice melt on track to set new record

ujoni08 · Post by **ujoni08** » 19 Jul 2011, 20:22

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2011/07 ... w-2011.php

'New images from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show the Arctic Sea Ice extent in the first half of July continues to rapidly decline, to the extent that it is tracking below what was seen in 2007, when the record minimum summer record was set. Persistent above average temperatures and an early start to seasonal melting were cited as causing the rapid melting.

NSIDC reports that as of July 17th Arctic sea ice extent was 7.56 million square kilometers, 2.24 million sq km below the 1979-2000 average. In the first two weeks of July nearly 120,000 sq km of ice were lost per day'.

Jon

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 19 Jul 2011, 20:56

No great surprise there then.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 27 Aug 2011, 10:07

Arctic sea ice area matches previous record minimum - 2 weeks melting still to go.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere ... arctic.png

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 27 Aug 2011, 10:57

How does that reconcile with http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/imag ... series.png
and
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 27 Aug 2011, 13:25

Biff,

They are measuring slightly different things. NSIDC measures sea ice extent - the area of sea that has at least 15% sea ice on it.

uiuc measures the total area of the ice - not including the water spaces in between. When ice is broken and dispersed, the extent can increase whilst the area decreases.

Both measurements have their drawbacks. The area of ice is fractal - it depends on how accurately you measure it.

Sea ice volume is expected to reach a new minimum as well this year, but that is a less directly measured property, and results are reported one month late.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 27 Aug 2011, 13:58

And somebody rowed a bot to the magnetic north pole (wherever that is).
http://rowtothepole.com/

Though I don't know how they make out that this is rowing:

http://rowtothepole.com/images/474/full/jpeg

This is more like it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-8usgpX ... r_embedded

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 01 Sep 2011, 12:51

Looks like the the sea ice area has bottomed out early this year. Ice in the central arctic is reforming rapidly. Just shy of the 2007 record minimum.

Sea ice extent is still declining, and is marginally above 2007 to date.

Still waiting for sea ice volume, certain to be a record low,

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 07 Sep 2011, 13:47

Sea ice volume confirmed at record low. Now fallen by 65% from long term average value (in about 1995) for August.

At this rate, August sea ice will disappear altogether in a decade.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress ... e-anomaly/

The anomaly has declined slightly in the last month, but is still 8000 cubic kilometres of ice, or 8000 000 000 000 cubic metres.

Sea ice area and sea ice extent still hovering around record lows.

Glow Worm · Post by **Glow Worm** » 08 Sep 2011, 12:50

RalphW wrote:Sea ice volume confirmed at record low. Now fallen by 65% from long term average value (in about 1995) for August.

At this rate, August sea ice will disappear altogether in a decade.

Hahahaha.. do you REALLY belive that?

I often wonder whats actually going on.. according to some scientists global warming is real..others say it's not and is just part of the natural cycle. I.E. the sea/and air temps were a lot hotter before mankind started cutting things down and setting fire to things..

What do we believe .. the same danger danger call has been given for many years about sea ice.. but then the Chinese Navy sailed around the ice free North pole in the 1400 and Greenland was actually green because of its ice free climate..

But many dispute that..as many also point out that the IPCC used flawed data and those supporting Gore didnt properly collate the NASA data to allow the fact that warming stopped several years ago and has got cooler since... and the hockey stick as truly bent and Co2 rise actually followed global temp rise by a wide margin... who is right? If it was Gore why didnt he turn his lights off when he was jetting around earning megga bucks selling his tour to the world...

Why do the IPCC hold meetings for 1,000's of people all over the world... why not sit at home on the internet and have a virtual no travel meeting?

Have the glaciers melted yet? I only ask because the IPCC said they would..or rather used a non peer checked report from a non qualified journalist who made up an article based on flawed data and no personal research..

Sadly whatever the truth the "public" sway one way or another based on what they read in the press or see on their google box. Dangerous, especially if the whole global warming issue is real...

and that does not even include any arguments to if the warming is caused by anything "man" has or could do.. or if he has caused it then there is anything he could possibly do to prevent it going too far, stopping or reversing it...

If the UK ceased to exist tomorrow then any Co2 saving would be absorbed within three years by Chinas growth alone!!!!!

Unless evryone and I mean EVERYONE stops using carbon based fuel or creating any emissions then I still cant see that it would make ANY difference at all..

There are simply too many people and it's already impossible to prevent the human virus crapping in it's own back yard and slowly poisoning itself...

I still cant understand why the actual heat given off by human activity is not calculated as a possible cause of un natural warming!

How much heat does a car give off? = to how many electric fires?

Millions of electric fires lining our roads..all giving off huge amounts of heat..forget the emissions.. it's the un natural heat I'm talking about here..

add in all the houses, air con units, factories, trains, ships, planes, tractors, lorries, cows, horses, dogs, cats, etc..etc.. all those things there just because man is there that would not be the normal "natural" way of things... add to that the dust kicked up by man that settles upon the ice making it warm up quicker by existing solar radiation.. the seas getting hotter, the air getting hotter..

err hang on a min.. so why has the earth cooled off recently? What’s going on?

Has politics swayed the reality of what’s actually happening..is "man" getting in the way yet again? Is the Hunan factor the irritating fog in the way of the clear view of life?

who knows.. How much heat have I given off typing this crap to add to the heat store of the world?..my PC is certainly kicking out warm air..enough to make my well insulated computer room warmer than the rest of the house... all that heat goes somewhere...

Then the government has calculated interestingly that a man walking to the shops at least two miles to fetch a bottle of milk creates more environmentally damaging emissions that if he drove there in a average UK family car...!!!! What the !! Again wot about the heat the car has given off on the same journey? Where has that gone and what has it done to global warming? why didn’t they calculate that in the statement?

A bit like wind power.. in my simplistic approach taking power from the wind MUST come from somewhere.. once extracted it's no longer in the wind..How will thousands of wind turbines effect the strength of the wind? Can that effect be measured and what will that do to the wind?

If global warming is happening and this results in climate change and the "tipping point" is imminent then weather patterns will change quickly and those wind farms based on current wind patterns will/might be in the wrong places?

Bio fuel crops.. burning wood is deemed neutral yes?
I dont get that at all.. We only currently burn a very little..correct?
But if we now start to burn lots as it's neutral then wont the overall level of Co2 present drastically increase as more wood is burnt?
Yes I know the co2 is absorbed but the more people burn the more is released into the air so the "at any one time" levels will increase wont they?

Imagine Mr Native/Eco Warrior ..burning twigs on his camp fire... great Co2 neutral..
Now imagine the little bugger setting fire to the WHOLE FORREST at once...
Do you see my point? More Co2 release overall and less trees to absorb it back again... even if you replant them they need to have time to mature to absorb the same rate they did as fully grown trees so during this time the overall level’s of Co2 will be a lot higher.. and the ecology is buggered by mans intervention...

Multiply that up to global scales and wham..Global warming spike, tipping point reached. Hopefully the resulting floods and climate change will put out the forest fires so to speak...

Edited for those taking the piss..

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 08 Sep 2011, 14:03

Hi Glow Worm,

I meant precisely what I typed.

If the arctic sea ice continues to melt at the same volumetric rate that it has done for the last 15 years, then by August 2021 there will be NO sea ice in the high arctic.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere ... arctic.png

Sea ice area now at record low as well.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 08 Sep 2011, 14:13

Glow Worm wrote:
Then the goverment has calculated interestingly that a man walking to the shops at least two miles to fetch a bottle of milk creates more environmentally damaging emissions that if he drove there in a average UK family car...!!!! What the !! Again wot about the heat the car has given off on the same journey? Where has that gone and what has it done to global warming? why didnt they calculate that in the statement?

Let me guess, you are not educated above A level in a scientific discipline.

Interesting spelling too.

Do you have a reference for this government calculation? I can't work out what your point is.

I could give statistical numeric answers to a lot of your questions, but I haven't got time.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 10 Sep 2011, 10:54

Glow Worm wrote:
RalphW wrote:Sea ice volume confirmed at record low. Now fallen by 65% from long term average value (in about 1995) for August.

At this rate, August sea ice will disappear altogether in a decade.

Hahahaha.. do you REALLY belive that?

Yes. I am also pretty sure that the Earth is not flat.

Glow Worm · Post by **Glow Worm** » 04 Nov 2011, 15:13

Let me stress that these volume numbers aren't observed data, but are calculated using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003). The real numbers probably aren't off by much, and I base this on some snippets of information like the ice thickness measured at the North Pole by the Polarstern crew and buoy information, but we can't know for sure until the CryoSat-2 team starts churning out some well-calibrated numbers and ice thickness maps.

Hmmm.. let me get this right.. You are saying that the data you have read is accurate and true?
The quote above is from one of those retained scientists that provide the data to the IPCC and that is used by the media in their reports.

On October 4, the National Snow and Ice Data Center posted information on its website indicating that the summer melt of sea ice in the Arctic, this year, approached — but did not quite match — a record set four years ago. A team of European scientists now concludes NSIDC got it wrong. This year's loss was every bit as big.

“We didn’t have — which some of us might have expected — a further thinning of sea ice [beyond the 2007 minimum].”

Again the actual observed data is ignored and a team of scientists in Europe who have not obtained their own data or made direct observations think it is wrong...

The ice breaker Polarstern spent 16 weeks plying Arctic waters to measure the extent and depth of summer sea ice.Some 130 scientists from six countries participated in parts or all of the ship’s 16-week, 11,800-nautical-mile trek mapping Arctic sea ice. To gauge ice thickness, they collected measurements with a 4-meter-long sensor deployed from a helicopter above the ice and with a remotely piloted mini-sub under the ice. By mapping the sea surface, they were able to observe gaps between floes to gauge how completely ice covered the surface.

Interestingly the European scientists conclusion from computer moddling of the data think it is a new record low volume of ice but ....

Schweiger cautions, the apparent drop from last year is well within the error bars associated with the computer model.

It's NOT the first time the raw data has been re moulded to fit in with what the people who are paying for the research want to hear...

It seems that the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) Arctic Sea Ice Volume Model that generated the highly suspect chart above has been corrected to “show reduced errors over the prior version”. According to the University of Washington Polar Science Center website:

This time series of ice volume is generated with an updated version of PIOMAS (June-15,2011). This updated version improves on prior versions by assimilating sea surface temperatures (SST) for ice-free areas and by using a different parameterization for the strength of the ice. Comparisons of PIOMAS estimates with ice thickness observations show reduced errors over the prior version. The long term trend is reduced to about -2.8 103 km3/decade from -3.6 km3/decade in the last version. Our comparisons with data and alternate model runs indicate that this new trend is a conservative estimate of the actual trend. New with this version we provide uncertainty statistics. More details can be found in Schweiger et al. 2011. Model improvement is an ongoing research activity at PSC and model upgrades may occur at irregular intervals. When model upgrades occur, the entire time series will be reprocessed and posted.”

I am NOT saying that Climate Change is not happening.. or that the ice caps are not melting.. just that you should NOT rely upon the data the "media" feed you that in turn comes from scientist who are paid by and funded to provide data to those with their own agendas..without first checking that it is correct..

No one actually knows what is happening or going to happen or why. People think they know but that does NOT mean they do...

The scientists can only record what has happened and see what the ice core samples might indicate might happen again. A pity that the data provided by ice cores does seem to be at odds with what today’s retained scientific community is projecting and what the media picks out of it.

Take the piss all you like about my spelling and what you think is my educational achievement level but you then just make yourself look like a playground bully...

But I have constantly found that "scientific researchers" look for what they want to find.. and are quite happy, in this day and age of grant driven sustainability, to fudge the data in order to pay for their next trip...

I do wonder though.. what are you doing on here if you think the ice caps will melt, and quickly.. because you must have twigged that by now the data provided via the media shows an accelerating trend towards a total melt down and sea level rises of 2-3 meters or even up to 7 meters... according to a few fringe researchers..

Even if you simplistically say that you live above the projected sea level rise one might have also concluded that the world will change to such an extent that we might find ourselves back in the iron age.. All sea ports, refineries, most food crop areas, 30% of the worlds industrial areas, mining areas and airports will be under water.. Billions of people will become economic migrants and food wars will soon start...
Not to mention the 40-50 nuclear power stations that would also be underwater....

I would have thought that any person who actually believes the crap dished out by retained researchers would be busy hording food/medicine and going on survival courses... make plans and run for the hills...

I’d be far more worried about the economic state of the world, pandemics, war and near earth objects than melting ice though.. It’s melted before.. it will melt again…

Poisoned seas, gulf stream failure, super volcanoes, commercial crop stagnation and being run over by a vehicle are far more relevant.

In the UK we can’t even grow enough to feed the population, our hospitals cant cope as it is, we import almost all of our fuel and will soon have to rely upon others to feed us and keep us warm.. maybe long hot summers and mild winters might actually be a benefit in the short to medium term…

We are close to falling out with Europe who might soon start fighting each other anyway and we don’t even have a single Navy ship in out own waters for a deterrent…

Meanwhile those scientists who are paid for research and who provide data to those who fund them are not actually being true to science..

I note an interesting article in the Times today.. about how the "human" evolved and spread around the world..

All down to global temperature changes..so much ice that the sea levels fell more than 300 feet to allow land bridges..global warming periods allowing "humans" to move further up north and into Europe etc...

Global warming/cooling is a cycle..we have not been here long enough to understand it and there are too few scientists dedicated to it's study who are independant of funding from interested supporters or either side...

The three main questions:

Is Global Warming man caused ?

Is Global Warming caused by Co2 rises or are Co2 rises a natural result of Global Warming?

Can we puny humans do anything to stop it?

All remain unaswered...

My thoughts are.. whatever is happening we need to understand that there are too many people, to many agendas and no real global will to sort it out...

All the time we debate it.. more trees are being cut down, more urbanisation is spreading and more oil is being burnt, more people are getting rich from the GW "Industry"......

I strongly suspect it's already too late to do much about it and Climate Change is the correct term to use and there will be another world war in our lifetime because of it.....

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 14 Feb 2012, 19:51

Arctic sea ice maximum at minimum.

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/1 ... d-ominous/

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 14 Feb 2012, 21:46

I think it is unlikely to remain at this low level for another 2 months. The weather will change and there will be more ice