What future for the US, when a bigger disaster hits?

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mikepepler
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What future for the US, when a bigger disaster hits?

Post by mikepepler »

While looking for news on New Orleans from the US, I read an interesting article here:
http://www.americandaily.com/article/9036

The author notes the speed with which law and order has fallen apart:
Two days. 48 hours. 2,880 minutes. This was all the time it took for the fabric of 6000 years of civilization to unravel in New Orleans. Streets which just last week were lined with the fans of Blues clubs and theaters are now patrolled by gangs of what in any other country would be called terrorists looking for their next innocent victim or store front to pillage. Rapes and gang wars in the Superdome, gun fire at rescue helicopters, and the efforts to search and rescue trapped survivors of hurricane Katrina have been abandoned in a near hopeless effort to restore some semblance of public order. Think of it. In just two days time, authorities have been forced to desert innocent people to almost certain death because New Orleans has become unsafe for rescue operations. Two days.
and he thinks it is something systemic in US society:
This disaster has exposed something putrid in our society. For this to happen so quickly indicates that there is something fundamentally flawed in our culture that should not be brushed under the rug by political correctness or blamed on any simple politician or political party. What is happening in New Orleans can and will happen again unless we take sober steps to first understand why these events have occurred, and then act to prevent them.
he thinks that people have come to feel that what the majority of people in the world count as luxuries are in fact rights, so when they are taken away they feel justified in fighting to get them back.
In a culture where all the comforts of life have been provided to people as entitlements, their sudden absence has unleashed a violent backlash against the society these people feel has let them down. In other words, if some people do not get what they feel they are entitled to get, then something unfair must have happened, so now they have the right to go out and take it.
and his penultimate paragraph:
The nanny state has created a class of people in America not only unable to take care of their own needs, but incapable to existing within normal society. In your neighborhood, laws and peaceful coexistence are not maintained by government or the police, but by the people themselves. You obey the law and live a civil existence because you understand that this is the only way you will have a good life. You feel that way because you have worked hard and are unwilling to jeopardize everything you have earned by acting foolishly. But those who have always been given everything and told that everything they do wrong is a result of their being a victim, there is no similar prohibition.
I'm not sure he's got it quite right at the end here, as he thinks it is only the section of the population that depends on the "nanny state" which will behave like this. I wonder if actually a lot of people would behave like this if they were stuck in the situation - if you and your family are starving and your lives are threatened, maybe you also would pick up a gun and use it?

Anyway, the main thing it made me think about is this:

The disaster in New Orleans is very serious, but compared to what might happen with Peak Oil it is minor. Allright, Peak Oil effects may creep up slowly rather than come overnight like this one, but if law and order can break down in flooded New Orleans in 2 days, how much longer would it take to happen with a more gradually developing situation, or a "long emergency", to borrow Kunstler's phrase.

It seems to me that there is a critical point - when a large segment of the population of a city/region/etc. decides that it is no longer in their personal best interests to uphold the rule of law, and that in fact they can do better by behaving as they see fit. If this point is reached due to any of the effects of Peak Oil in the coming years, the US is in for serious trouble.

The other question is, could it happen here too...?
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PowerSwitchJames
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Post by PowerSwitchJames »

Can't disagree. I hope the UK will be better, but who knows.
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fishertrop
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Post by fishertrop »

Don't forget tho that many of the rioters come from poor backgrounds where much of what we take for granted IS NOT available to them.

They only way some see that they can get what everyone else has is by taking it.

The "law" that they do not uphold is a law they see as responsible for their ills, a law that keeps them down while allowing others to prosper.

I think they rail against such "laws" every day, but are largely powerless to combat/overthrow it in normal everyday life.

When much of that law is removed, whent he system that supports that law collaspes they CAN then turn against the thing they so hate and fight against it with sucess.

Personally I do not beleive that you can have such harsh welth inequality and expect the have-nots not to be hateful in some form at least.

Contrast this with DimitryO's description of a riot-free collaspe in teh FSU.

Would a similar collaspe in teh west be riot free? Hell no.....
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PaulS
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Post by PaulS »

This situation is I think not unique to the States, although there it is particularly exaggerated by
a) the presence of guns at all levels of society and
b) culture of disrespect for 'others', i.e. those not belonging to the same gang, group or class and
c) the incessant promotion of violent life styles in popular culture, incl music, films, TV etc.
And all that fired by the palpable feeling of resentment and unfairness of the system, which appears to these people to conspire against them to such a degree that there is no point in attempting to play the system.

Much of this 'underclass' is created by the prohibition laws in regard to drugs, which criminalize whole sections of society simply for providing a distribution service for a commodity, which certain part of the population clearly wants and requires, bit like Boots or Sainsbury?s.

Unfortunately much of this also exists here in the UK.

OK, guns are restricted, but the other points I think apply almost equally, now not only to the 'urban blacks' and ?ordinary? criminals but perhaps also the 'young Muslims'. In the event of breakdown of law and order in the UK, guns may not be as prevalent, but there are many other very effective weapons to choose from, if you have the motivation.
What a shame, seemed quite promising, this human species.
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SherryMayo
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Post by SherryMayo »

Mayor Nagin made an illuminating comment about the violence.
He pointed out that NO has a significant drug problem and in normal times the drugs flow freely - but after katrina the city was full of junkies who hadn't had a fix for several days.
Peaked2Soon
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Post by Peaked2Soon »

The old cliche has that we are only 3 square meals removed from savages. I think that the Orleans experience proves that the adage is spot on. As soon as food and drinkable water run low most people will resort to most things in order to stay alive.

Clearly, in a US city, the mass ownership of guns makes the collapse into anarchy much quicker and more extreme. In the UK it would probably require only a small number police or militia on the streets to prevent outright chaos. If there is a gun for every head of population, as in the US, then clearly you will need a much larger force to keep control.

The other factor in the US is the large urban underclass who exist day to day by crime and violence under normal circumstances. They wouldn't need much encouragement to hit the streets and start shooting once the lights go out. The gang warfare and beatings we've been hearing about are normal currency in most US cities. The only difference this week is that we've been hearing about them.

All in all a terrifying preview of Post-Peak America. I'm glad I don't live there!
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Post by RevdTess »

Also makes a mockery of the stupid idea that an 'armed society is a polite society'.
peaky

Post by peaky »

My jaw dropped on Sunday reading The Independent where it mentioned that the Wal-Mart's gun department had been raided! Obviously such a concept is normal to Americans, but I nearly spilt my coffee.

Imagine your ASDA (Wal-Mart's parent now) shopping list:

Bread
Milk
Eggs
AK-47

:shock: :shock:
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mikepepler
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Post by mikepepler »

Had to search around for a while to find the appropriate thread to post this one on...
Soldiers deployed in New Orleans
US soldiers are set to be redeployed on the streets of New Orleans to fight crime for the first time since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/5096924.stm

Does this seem odd/suprising/scary to anyone else? Troops on the streets keeping the peace in a Western country that isn't at war (apart from the War on Terror)?
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Pippa
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Post by Pippa »

Very scary but not surprising really. I have also read somewhere that credit card and loan defaults are at an all time high in New Orleans, another massive problem for post peak society to grapple with.

It was obvious that the US government could have done a hugh amount more to aliviate the suffering when the huricane hit. However, why rush aid and assistance in when you have already come to terms with the fact that in the near future a substantial section of your population needs to "go". Probably the best thing to do is to conveniently "forget" to arrange for the relief work in the first place. The reality is that resource and money can only go so far - this is yet more ugly truth we are witnessing. Sometimes I ask myself how I would proceed to get out of this mess if I was in charge; really I wouldn't fancy the job!

How convenient that TPTB can now run a real life post peak society, problems and solutions type "experiment".

Regarding troops, what about N Ireland? Will we need more troops and police to keep peace on the streets in the future? Bearing in mind so many are going to be fighting terrorists abroad will we return to subscription or will people volunteer because they are despirate for a job? If it comes to this, which "side" would you rather be on?
dr_doom
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Post by dr_doom »

There were some really dodgy things going on in new orleans. And I'm not just talking about the rampaging looters, bad as they were I'm sure.

Did you hear how walmart tried to ship in several truck-loads of water and got turned away by the army, on several occasions?

Did you hear about how the police went to the wealthy middle-class areas of town, unaffected by flooding. And carried out gun confiscations??

I don't buy that this is all down to incompetence, and bureaucracy.
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rs
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Post by rs »

I know the British government has its own fair share of problems but personally, I have a deep distrust of the American government. America is one country I would not want to be in when TSHTF.
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