New warning on Arctic ice melt

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 08 Apr 2011, 04:42

BBC News - 08/04/11

Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer ice will probably be gone within this decade.

The original prediction, made in 2007, gained Wieslaw Maslowski's team a deal of criticism from some of their peers.

Now they are working with a new computer model - compiled partly in response to those criticisms - that produces a "best guess" date of 2016.

Their work was unveiled at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) annual meeting.

Article continues ...

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 08 Apr 2011, 12:59

Hmm.

I personally expect that the arctic ice will melt very suddenly - in that the summer ice extent will decline to near zero in the space of a few years. However, I don't think we can accurately predict exactly which few years - our models are not that accurate yet, and the final tipping point could be some meteorological black swan event.

When I say 'I expect' it is a value judgement, I am not a climate scientist, it is based of graphs and memories and on-line discussions. I have never been to the arctic. It is about who I trust on particular arguments.

I believe these scientists are genuine in their motives a rigourous in their modelling. But they are just one more data point in the consensus.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 16 Jul 2011, 11:40

The Great Northern Thermometer seems to be going in a direction not seen before:

nexus · Post by **nexus** » 16 Jul 2011, 14:18

Kieran · Post by **Kieran** » 16 Jul 2011, 21:43

I was browsing through my copy of "The Complete Earth" the other day. It's a huge book of fantastic satellite photography and one double page spread shows how the north pole would look without the ice cap. The caption alongside said how this could be so in a few thousand years, given current warming trends. Had to laugh - a few thousand years eh? So out of date...

The book was published just 5 years ago.