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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

UndercoverElephant wrote:I love this bit:
why there may eventually be two prices for bullion: one for paper and (a much higher one) for physical...
Paper bullion! :?
Paper gold - can't make it up! Considering that the ratio of physical to paper is nearly one to a hundred, the mismatch between the two may become a huge one in the future.

I could forsee a time when a ounce of physical gold is worth ten or twenty times the value of a paper contract of one ounce of gold.

Similarly for silver.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Gold is suddenly back up to £957 now from £930 at 1pm this afternoon. What's today's reason?

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11175716 ... grade.html
Yesterday, rating agency Moody's Investors downgraded Portugal's credit rating to junk status.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

One word.

Contagion.

The markets haven't taken long to switch their focus to Portugal and there is the grey swan risk of a US default on August 2nd which could lead to unknown consequences for the world economy.

I suspect that certain financial forces are seriously looking into the possibility of a crisis within a month and are thinking that to hedge their bets, going into gold is a smart move.

My take on it anyway.

I think we will hit the important £1,000 ceiling/breakout by August this year.
Last edited by Lord Beria3 on 06 Jul 2011, 17:49, edited 2 times in total.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/ ... FW20110706
LISBON, July 6 (Reuters) - Two leading Portuguese bankers called on the European Union on Wednesday to set up its own credit ratings criteria and stop using U.S.-based agencies, a day after Moody's slashed Portugal's credit standing to junk status.

"If these ratings agencies have this behaviour, that worries us all and apparently also worries European leaders, the thing to do would be to stop using their criteria," Fernando Ulrich, head of the country's third-largest listed bank, Banco BPI , told Reuters by telephone.
Unbelievable. If you don't like the message then shoot the messenger. The problem is not the fact that Portugal is heading towards bankruptcy but that those darned US rating agencies "have this behaviour". What behaviour? Errr...they are behaving like rating agencies who have already had lots of fingers pointing at them for failing to downgrade bad credit risks before the 2008 crash. Solution? Create our own credit rating agencies which will do what we tell them, which is what the US agencies did before the 2008 crash.

Round and round and round it goes...where it stops nobody knows...
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 06 Jul 2011, 23:06, edited 5 times in total.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

Yup and those same 'Anglo-saxon' agencies are going to cut America's rating if the US does a technical default of their debt in August!

The rating agencies are doing their job.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Lord Beria3 wrote:
The rating agencies are doing their job.
Well, they are at least (now) trying to make it look like they are doing their job. If they were actually doing their job then the US would have had its credit rating lowered a long time ago.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

This looks like it is turning into a fight between the credit rating agencies and the politicians.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... 23b3cb.ab1
Banks wrestle with no-default help for Greece

PARIS — Leading banks were meeting in Paris on Wednesday on how to support a new rescue for Greece, their spokesman told AFP shortly after a rating agency issued a new warning and another downgraded Portugal.

The critical issue, which has delayed until September any eurozone decision on a new rescue for Greece, is how banks could shoulder part of the cost of help without triggering dangerous default repercussions across financial markets.
The ratings agencies own survival now depends on them downgrading when it would be ludicrous not to: if everybody knows it is a spade, then they have no choice but to call it a spade or cease to have any reason for existing. But the people who want to preserve the integrity of the Euro/EU (and the same problems will occur in the US with individual states going bust) need to be able bail out (properly bail out, not just loan) Greece without it being called a default. They are happy to accept that they aren't going to get all of their money back, but there's no point in them doing it at all if the rating agency is going to call the spade/default a spade/default, because this will cause contagion and lead to even greater losses.

This is no longer a political problem. It's a logical problem. They have run out of logically-possible non-catastrophic escape routes.

:)
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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DominicJ
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Post by DominicJ »

UE
In their infinite wisdom, regulators declared certain insitutions were legaly required to own a certain amount AAA rated assets, and set limits to the lower qualities.
Thats starting to have serious effects as sovereign debt is cut....
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Lord Beria3 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:I love this bit:
why there may eventually be two prices for bullion: one for paper and (a much higher one) for physical...
Paper bullion! :?
Paper gold - can't make it up! Considering that the ratio of physical to paper is nearly one to a hundred, the mismatch between the two may become a huge one in the future.
What exactly does this mean? That for every investor who holds an ounce of physical gold there are one hundred investors who hold paper which supposedly entitles them to an ounce of physical gold? Or that for every hundred paper ounces there is only one physical ounce held by the issuers of the paper?
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

DominicJ wrote:UE
In their infinite wisdom, regulators declared certain insitutions were legaly required to own a certain amount AAA rated assets, and set limits to the lower qualities.
Thats starting to have serious effects as sovereign debt is cut....
Ah...in that case why don't they just change the rules? They seem to be quite happy to change all sorts of other rules in the middle of the game, why not that one?
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:I love this bit:
Paper bullion! :?
Paper gold - can't make it up! Considering that the ratio of physical to paper is nearly one to a hundred, the mismatch between the two may become a huge one in the future.
What exactly does this mean? That for every investor who holds an ounce of physical gold there are one hundred investors who hold paper which supposedly entitles them to an ounce of physical gold? Or that for every hundred paper ounces there is only one physical ounce held by the issuers of the paper?
Got it in one! Think of it as a inverted pyramid. A tiny base of physical backs a gigantic amount of paper promises.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

Logically, if demand for physical became a premium, than the price of physical would rise by many multiples.

I look forward to the day, because 100% of my PM's are physical!
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Lord Beria3 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote: Paper gold - can't make it up! Considering that the ratio of physical to paper is nearly one to a hundred, the mismatch between the two may become a huge one in the future.
What exactly does this mean? That for every investor who holds an ounce of physical gold there are one hundred investors who hold paper which supposedly entitles them to an ounce of physical gold? Or that for every hundred paper ounces there is only one physical ounce held by the issuers of the paper?
Got it in one! Think of it as a inverted pyramid. A tiny base of physical backs a gigantic amount of paper promises.
Just to make sure....you are saying that for every hundred "paper gold" ounces there is only one physical ounce held by the issuers of the paper, not that for every investor who holds an ounce of physical gold there are one hundred investors who hold paper which supposedly entitles them to an ounce of physical gold, yes?

I asked you an either/or question and you told me I'd got it in one, so I'm a little confused. :)
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

To be exact, I said 'nearly', I think many etf's the ratio is five physical to a hundred, but the basic point is still the same.

There is no way if all the holders of paper future contracts of gold/silver tomorrow demanded the physical that there is enough physical to make everybody happy.

In reality only a small minority of paper holders would get the physical. Less than 5% to be exact.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of ... nds-2011-7

Now check out this beauty! Portuguese short term yields exploding!
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