Global 'train wreck' coming

[kenneal - lagger]

I would have thought that if the US defaults they are sunk. If US bondholders world wide get caught once the dollar would become a pariah currency, just as a new drachma would, and no one would touch it. The US wouldn't get credit anywhere and the 'Murican Way of Life would instantly disappear.

[the_lyniezian]

That's true but the word "deteriorating" I feel does little justice to the scale of the changes that would ensue.

We often use the term "getting poorer". It sounds fairly harmless - as though it's just a question of everybody making do with a little less. In practice, "getting poorer" is the process whereby, one by one, people get pushed off the table of employment and relative affluence, onto the floor of unemployment, poverty and despair.

From 30000 feet up, the process looks fairly gradual, but for each individual it is sudden and traumatic.

It can mean that, but for some at the present it seems to also meanpeople simply feeling the squeeze- pay freezes, having reduced pension prospects, having to cope with the ever-rising cost of living.

It isn't in 'the West' like becoming unemployed automatically means instant destitution as there is still the safety net (and the fact that people probaly own luxuries they can give up and sell on), unless perhaps people are up to their eyballs in debt. That said, if welfare reduction is carrying on the way it seems to be...

[vtsnowedin]

That's true but the word "deteriorating" I feel does little justice to the scale of the changes that would ensue.

We often use the term "getting poorer". It sounds fairly harmless - as though it's just a question of everybody making do with a little less. In practice, "getting poorer" is the process whereby, one by one, people get pushed off the table of employment and relative affluence, onto the floor of unemployment, poverty and despair.

From 30000 feet up, the process looks fairly gradual, but for each individual it is sudden and traumatic.

It can mean that, but for some at the present it seems to also meanpeople simply feeling the squeeze- pay freezes, having reduced pension prospects, having to cope with the ever-rising cost of living.

It isn't in 'the West' like becoming unemployed automatically means instant destitution as there is still the safety net (and the fact that people probaly own luxuries they can give up and sell on), unless perhaps people are up to their eyballs in debt. That said, if welfare reduction is carrying on the way it seems to be...

I'm afraid that is the case with way too many Americans. Millions that thought they had a positive net worth have been hit by the thirty percent decline in the value of their house. If forced to sell everything today there would be substantial bills left unpaid at the end of the money. Many others that had fixed retirement incomes are seeing that rapidly get eaten away by rising health insurance premiums and health taxes. They will soon find all of their retirement savings going to their doctor and the hospital bureaucracy leaving nothing to support the household.

[frank_begbie]

And anyway...the financial problems do have solutions. The problem is that all of those solutions look like Christmas to the turkeys who run the political/economic system, and turkeys don't vote for Christmas. The solution for the US, for example, is a massive programme of austerity, where they (shock!, horror!) seriously cut back on military and other spending and (shock!, horror!) raise taxes.

But how much of a solution is that? The kinds of cuts required would essentially mean the Government disappearing completely. Do you think American society would organise itself for a peaceful decline? I'm afraid I don't. It's too individualistic, too greedy, and in some places too violent.

The reasons the US won't do this are primarily political, not economic.

I don't think that's really true. Where are jobs going to come from?

I don't think the most stringent spending cuts could really make a dent in the US financial mess. In fact, spending has been if anything more reckless in the run-up to PO, since TPTB recognised that they were screwed whatever happened, and they might as well milk the system for all it was worth in the time it had left.

Sooner or later, somehow or other, a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money and nearly everybody is going to find their standard of living deteriorating. But we knew that anyway, didn't we?

That's true but the word "deteriorating" I feel does little justice to the scale of the changes that would ensue.

We often use the term "getting poorer". It sounds fairly harmless - as though it's just a question of everybody making do with a little less. In practice, "getting poorer" is the process whereby, one by one, people get pushed off the table of employment and relative affluence, onto the floor of unemployment, poverty and despair.

From 30000 feet up, the process looks fairly gradual, but for each individual it is sudden and traumatic.

This seems to be what is happening to me.

I'm pretty sure they actually don't know what to do for the best, so why not carry on for as long as it lasts?

The ship is sinking but we'll wait till the last minute to abandon.

[Ludwig]

That's true but the word "deteriorating" I feel does little justice to the scale of the changes that would ensue.

We often use the term "getting poorer". It sounds fairly harmless - as though it's just a question of everybody making do with a little less. In practice, "getting poorer" is the process whereby, one by one, people get pushed off the table of employment and relative affluence, onto the floor of unemployment, poverty and despair.

From 30000 feet up, the process looks fairly gradual, but for each individual it is sudden and traumatic.

It can mean that, but for some at the present it seems to also meanpeople simply feeling the squeeze- pay freezes, having reduced pension prospects, having to cope with the ever-rising cost of living.

It isn't in 'the West' like becoming unemployed automatically means instant destitution as there is still the safety net (and the fact that people probaly own luxuries they can give up and sell on), unless perhaps people are up to their eyballs in debt. That said, if welfare reduction is carrying on the way it seems to be...

There will be no welfare after TSHTF. And I am pretty sure that will be sooner than most people think.

In Argentina there were well-dressed, formerly middle-class people eating out of hotel bins.

[DominicJ]

Remember the welfare state wont pay your mortgage.....

Welfares great if you structure your life around it, bloody useless if you lose your job.

[Lord Beria3]

Remember the welfare state wont pay your mortgage.....

Welfares great if you structure your life around it, bloody useless if you lose your job.

+1 the welfare state is a social safety net, not a all singing and all dancing catch to sustain you in a lifestyle you enjoyed when working with good income.

Unlike Ludwig, I think there will continue to be a social safety net for anather generation but it will be much more thinner.

People need to start adapting, by saving some of their income/assets into appreciating assets, cutting down on wasteful spending and try to be as independent of the state as possible.

[frank_begbie]

The welfare state has been slowly dismantled for over 30 years if not longer.

The only difference now is they have a really good reason to put their foot down.

"We all have to make sacrifices, to get the debt down"

[kenneal - lagger]

People need to start adapting, by saving some of their income/assets into appreciating assets, cutting down on wasteful spending and try to be as independent of the state as possible.

That very sensible way, unfortunately, leads to economic recession and a greater cut in living standards. Greater private spending, however, leads to higher interest rates, lower spending, economic recession and a greater cut in living standards. Either way, we are stuffed!

[UndercoverElephant]

"We all have to make sacrifices, to get the debt down..."

"...apart from the bankers, for whom the party goes on."

[frank_begbie]

"We all have to make sacrifices, to get the debt down..."

"...apart from the bankers, for whom the party goes on."

I'd also like to know when the MPs and the House of Lords are going to set the example to us all?

Oh, sorry...they're looking into it. Jesus!

[kenneal - lagger]

The welfare state has been slowly dismantled for over 30 years if not longer.

While spending on it has been increasing all the time? they might have tried to dismantle it but weren't very successful.

The only difference now is they have a really good reason to put their foot down.

"We all have to make sacrifices, to get the debt down"

Get real Frank! Haven't you taken in anything on this thread? The whole system will soon collapse under the weight of users. A welfare system requires that there are enough people working to pay for those out of work. We have bred a whole generation of people who believe that it is not worth working when the "social" can pay you for doing nothing. That's why many of our employers prefer Poles to a Brit. A Pole will work for you while while a Brit will just moan. Poles have been sending money home while the government has been paying Brits to not work. Result? Net drain on the economy!!

That's nothing compared to what will come. With our national debt increasing it won't be long before we can't get any more credit and the whole welfare system becomes unaffordable. I'm not saying that it's a good thing, I just saying that it's a fact. Anyone who blames it on a particular government is a "DENIER" - there, I've said it - and deserves all the approbation that goes with that word.

[DominicJ]

To balance the books, you have to cut welfare entirely, and a third of the NHS....

[kenneal - lagger]

Remember the welfare state wont pay your mortgage......

I had a letter from Aviva this morning offering to let me take some of the equity from my house to improve my retirement!! I think I'm going to report them to the regulator for misselling at a time when the housing market is likely to crash.

[Snail]

That's why many of our employers prefer Poles to a Brit. A Pole will work for you while while a Brit will just moan. Poles have been sending money home while the government has been paying Brits to not work. Result? Net drain on the economy!!

I really wish people would stop automatically saying this. Perhaps British workers wouldn't moan so much if their employers stopped treating ordinary workers with contempt and weren't so damn greedy. Minimum wage workers are generally treated as scum in this country. Are german workers treated so badly, or japanese. No! How do employers generally attempt to motivate staff in this country? By telling you how much profit they're making! Will this profit be shared? Of course not! Will an ordinary joe be included in decision making processes? Not likely. In tough times, what do upper management do, use accountants to cut jobs. Only limited and relunctant reduction of their own 'salaries' or 'bonuses'. In this country, setting the example doesn't happen. I've seen japanese owners of massive companies get down on their hands and knees and beg forgiveness. What do British equivalents do, shrug their shoulders and say 'not my fault'. It's not the ordinary majority who've repeatedly screwed this country, its the fuckers who think they're better. I get a salary you know, I'm the bees knees.