Current Oil Price

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 23 Jun 2011, 15:57

Conspiracy theories already abound.

One theory is that it is an attempt to squeeze Iran to the negotiating table over nuclear enrichment by dropping the oil price and killing their oil income.

If so, I think it will take more than 18 hours of global oil supply.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 23 Jun 2011, 16:49

RalphW wrote:Conspiracy theories already abound.

One theory is that it is an attempt to squeeze Iran to the negotiating table over nuclear enrichment by dropping the oil price and killing their oil income.

If so, I think it will take more than 18 hours of global oil supply.

And there was me thinking it was an attempt to revive a failing economic recovery...not that this is likely to work, given that the fuel companies won't drop pump prices to match the drop in wholesale prices.

I think it might be a desperate attempt to get the US/european economies growing again and so avoid a stock market crash followed by QE3 in the US.

frank_begbie · Post by **frank_begbie** » 23 Jun 2011, 17:05

The countries will make 2 million barrels a day available from their emergency stocks over a period of 30 days.

That certainly puts the amount into perspective

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 23 Jun 2011, 17:32

frank_begbie wrote:The countries will make 2 million barrels a day available from their emergency stocks over a period of 30 days.

That certainly puts the amount into perspective

So this is the endgame, at least with respect to any attempt to control oil prices. A combination of lost Libyan production and OPEC's refusal/inability to increase supplies, with the additional threat of a Greek default and the US stock market crashing at the end of QE2 has forced the major oil-importing nations to start raiding their emergency stockpiles. Which just leaves us asking the question "how long could they keep this up for?"

The U.S. has 727 million barrels squirreled away, so the answer is that they could keep it up for about a year before they ran out.

JavaScriptDonkey · Post by **JavaScriptDonkey** » 23 Jun 2011, 17:46

Or maybe it's a gargantuan attempt to get investor money out of the oil market and back into bonds.

I also wonder who's made money by shorting oil recently?

GlynG · Post by **GlynG** » 23 Jun 2011, 20:23

RalphW wrote:Conspiracy theories already abound.

One theory is that it is an attempt to squeeze Iran to the negotiating table over nuclear enrichment by dropping the oil price and killing their oil income.

The one that worries me is the one that says its a precursor for a war on Iran in the coming weeks.

frank_begbie · Post by **frank_begbie** » 23 Jun 2011, 20:27

UndercoverElephant wrote:
frank_begbie wrote:The countries will make 2 million barrels a day available from their emergency stocks over a period of 30 days.

That certainly puts the amount into perspective
So this is the endgame, at least with respect to any attempt to control oil prices. A combination of lost Libyan production and OPEC's refusal/inability to increase supplies, with the additional threat of a Greek default and the US stock market crashing at the end of QE2 has forced the major oil-importing nations to start raiding their emergency stockpiles. Which just leaves us asking the question "how long could they keep this up for?"

The U.S. has 727 million barrels squirreled away, so the answer is that they could keep it up for about a year before they ran out.

It just shows us how finely balanced the whole global oil supply is when the loss of under 2 mbpd throws the world into panic.

The beginning of the end? Only time will tell.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 24 Jun 2011, 17:07

Price down to $90 and $105 for Brent

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 24 Jun 2011, 18:25

UndercoverElephant wrote:
RalphW wrote:Conspiracy theories already abound.

One theory is that it is an attempt to squeeze Iran to the negotiating table over nuclear enrichment by dropping the oil price and killing their oil income.

If so, I think it will take more than 18 hours of global oil supply.
And there was me thinking it was an attempt to revive a failing economic recovery...not that this is likely to work, given that the fuel companies won't drop pump prices to match the drop in wholesale prices.

I think it might be a desperate attempt to get the US/european economies growing again and so avoid a stock market crash followed by QE3 in the US.

Dunno, I don't think the American Government seriously believes that an economic recovery is really possible. But maybe it feels it has no other card to play in order to buy a tiny bit more time. If you're on the brink of starvation, you're still going to spend your last pound.

We can be sure that some machinations are going on behind the scenes, but what they are is anybody's guess.

tymeric · Post by **tymeric** » 24 Jun 2011, 20:52

I think it might be a desperate attempt to get the US/european economies growing again and so avoid a stock market crash followed by QE3 in the US.

I think you could be right

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/71393210/

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 24 Jun 2011, 21:30

My thinking is that there is still a lack of understanding in political circles in both Europe and America that growth is dead and that this is a genuine if desperate attempt by the Obama administration to give the US consumer a 'tax cut' before the 2012 elections and help Obama get his second term.

Military, intelligence and to a lesser degree high finance circles are more lucid about the reality of the situation and are thinking about how to 'manage' the transition from the unsustainable system of BAU. These military-intelligence insiders (Richard Cheney was a classic individual who was a long-term member of this secret establishment) are thinking about to position America best for the coming era of shrinking oil.

At some point, when oil prices go beyond $200 (possibily as early as 2012?) this reality will become apparent to the wider political and corporate elites of the world, leading to severe financial meltdown in markets and states. I doubt that the top circles within the American ruling class are themselves totally sure how it will evolve but you can be sure that they are discussing, war gaming and making contingency plans.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 29 Jun 2011, 16:14

Brent just through $111.50 on news of the Greek vote.

That is only $3.50 below the price when the SPR release announced.

Euro rising sharply. dollar falling.

Markets are so short sighted.

JavaScriptDonkey · Post by **JavaScriptDonkey** » 30 Jun 2011, 18:44

RalphW wrote:Brent just through $111.50 on news of the Greek vote.

That is only $3.50 below the price when the SPR release announced.

Euro rising sharply. dollar falling.

Markets are so short sighted.

Like many people thought. Just a short term measure.

I wonder whether it involved burning speculators or making them very rich?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 07 Jul 2011, 14:53

Brent is up sharply. back over $116.

I think a large fall in US crude oil inventory is predicted. The reports are that Saudi Arabia has eased back exports after the SPR release (instead of increasing them, as it claimed it would do - again) and more of them are going to China.

Same old, same old.

Post by **adam2** » 13 Jul 2011, 15:55

Brent and WTI both up sharply in the last half hour or so.
Possibly caused by terrorist attacks in India
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-14141454

India does not produce much oil, but any large scale terrorist action tends to drive up prices lest it spreads or results in retalition.

OTOH virtually every commodity has gone up, if priced in US$, which could be another way of saying that the dollar has fallen.