Current Gold Price

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 09 Jun 2011, 12:59

UndercoverElephant wrote: Yes, but what they write about things like this makes a big difference to their credibility. Some of these people are making bold, public predictions, and there is a big difference between getting those right and getting them totally wrong. Economic journalists can't afford to make too many predictions of a 20% rise in the price of gold just before the price crashes - not if they want to keep their jobs.

Actually it's surprising how quickly people forget the forecasts analysts make that go completely pear-shaped. I speak as a former oil market analyst...

For what it's worth though I'm also bullish gold, even at $1550, even from the convent

. I will no doubt forever moan about the fact that I lost my last job after buying gold at $900 just as the hedge fund had its funding pulled during the crunch. Not that money has any use in religious life, but at least I could have been smug.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 09 Jun 2011, 13:27

UndercoverElephant wrote:I think I'll give the silver a miss. Harder to sell, I think, and I'm not so sure whether the returns on it are going to make up for all that VAT. And surely you would also have to pay CGT on silver bars, because they aren't legal tender.

You have to pay CGT on gold as well dont you?

Even if you dont currently, VAT and CGT could be imposed on Gold easily enough.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 09 Jun 2011, 14:34

DominicJ wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:I think I'll give the silver a miss. Harder to sell, I think, and I'm not so sure whether the returns on it are going to make up for all that VAT. And surely you would also have to pay CGT on silver bars, because they aren't legal tender.
You have to pay CGT on gold as well dont you?

Even if you dont currently, VAT and CGT could be imposed on Gold easily enough.

There's no CGT on anything which is legal tender, so not on gold or silver coins issued by the UK mint. There's no VAT or CGT on sovereigns.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 10 Jun 2011, 10:14

Gold hit a new high of £952 per oz this morning at 9am. Back down to £948 now.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 10 Jun 2011, 18:26

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43352322

The head of Appaloosa Management and source of the "Tepper Rally" that generated a huge run in the market last September said in an email to CNBC that stocks would have to fall considerably more before the Fed would start another round of quantitative easing, or QE.

"If (the S&P 500 falls) a couple hundred points and financial conditions tightened maybe they would reconsider," Tepper wrote. "But there is no logic to QE3 now and the only result might be more food and energy inflation."

Tepper made his influential call in a September CNBC appearance in which he said stocks were in a win-win situation: Either the economy would improve and drive a rally, or the economy would drop and the Fed would undertake another round of easing.

Two months later, the central bank announced the second round of its large asset purchases—known as QE2 in market jargon—that helped spark a 27 percent surge in the S&P [.SPX 1271.98 -17.02 (-1.32%) ] which finally started to sputter in early May.

Backing my thesis...

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 10 Jun 2011, 22:24

http://www.europe2020.org/spip.php?article692&lang=en

Almost a year ago LEAP/E2020 identified the second half of 2011 as a new critical point in time in the development of the global systemic crisis. Just like our February 2008 anticipation highlighted a major shock affecting the US economy in September 2008, our team confirms in this GEAB issue that all the conditions have now been met for the second half of 2011 to be the stage for the explosive fusion of two fundamental trends underlying the global systemic crisis, namely world geopolitical dislocation on the one hand and the global economic and financial crisis on the other.

In fact, for several months the world has experienced an almost unbroken succession of geopolitical, economic and financial shocks which, according to LEAP/E2020, constitute the warning signs of a major traumatic event that we analyze in this issue.

At the same time the international system has now passed the stage of structural weakening to enter a phase of complete decay where old alliances are breaking down, whilst new communities of interest are emerging very quickly.

Finally, any hope for significant and lasting global economic recovery has now evaporated [1] whilst the Western pillar’s indebtedness, especially the US, has reached a critical level unparalleled in modern history

Summer 2011 will confirm that the US Federal Reserve has lost its bet: the U.S. economy has, in fact, never left the "Very Great Depression" [4] which it entered in 2008 despite the trillions of dollars injected [5] , 04/26/2011 ]]. Unable to launch a QE3 (even unofficially through its Primary Dealers as it used to do until the world became too closely interested in the US Treasury Bond market), the Fed will helplessly watch interest rates rise, US government deficit costs explode, the world dive into an intensified economic recession, stock exchange collapse and the US dollar show erratic behavior, making short-term saw-tooth movements, depending on the influence of these events, before suddenly losing 30% of its value as we anticipated in the last issue [6].

Whilst, in my opinion the Fed will try QE3, the above makes total sense - and it is coming soon - WITHIN MONTHS.

Barriers, security, export embargos, diversification of reserves, frenzy over commodities, widespread rising inflation ... the world is preparing for a new economic, social and geopolitical shock

You can't say you haven't been warned...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 14 Jun 2011, 02:20

http://dailyreckoning.com/a-dark-shadow ... ld-market/

ETA: The author of this piece about gold is a Harvard-trained oil geologist.

ziggy12345 · Post by **ziggy12345** » 14 Jun 2011, 06:11

The graph shows that gold is about to crash

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 14 Jun 2011, 08:27

Gold is a great hedge against a nation's inflation. When the global economy goes south for the last time gold will lead the rush.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 14 Jun 2011, 10:06

ziggy12345 wrote:The graph shows that gold is about to crash

Yeah that was pretty much what I got....

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 14 Jun 2011, 11:08

ziggy12345 wrote:The graph shows that gold is about to crash

Could you explain that please?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 14 Jun 2011, 11:10

DominicJ wrote:
ziggy12345 wrote:The graph shows that gold is about to crash
Yeah that was pretty much what I got....

Erm, could you also explain that please?

The graph most certainly does not show that gold is about to crash, but I'm fascinated as to why two people are convinced that this is what it shows. I strongly suspect that the pair of you are basing this conclusion on additional premises which are not actually represented on the graph.

ETA: What I mean is that your comments only make sense to me if you think that US payments of interest as a share of total revenues is soon going to level off. Do you actually think that is about to happen?

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 14 Jun 2011, 11:28

Look at the Black line in 1980 and the blue blob in 1985
Now look at the black line in 2012 and the blue blob in 2017.
The two match right?

Now look at the black line bewtween 1980 and 1985.
And move that to 2012-2017.

See?

A gold spike crashes under interest rate rises, which increase government borrowing costs.
Now, I dont believe that the government is going to greatly increase interest rates in the next few years, but thats what the graph says is going to happen.
And if that happens, gold will crater, or possibly stabilise at about 800.

*********
I dont think they're going to level off, they're going to crash.
Look at the graph, it is saying that the US will spend 30% of its tax take on debt interest
*********

Never gonna happen.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 14 Jun 2011, 11:37

DominicJ wrote:Look at the Black line in 1980 and the blue blob in 1985
Now look at the black line in 2012 and the blue blob in 2017.
The two match right?

Now look at the black line bewtween 1980 and 1985.
And move that to 2012-2017.

See?

Yes, but you're ignoring the fact that during the 1980s price spike it was always still possible to get the US debt under control, but now it isn't.

A gold spike crashes under interest rate rises, which increase government borrowing costs.

Now, I dont believe that the government is going to greatly increase interest rates in the next few years, but thats what the graph says is going to happen.

The graph says nothing of the sort. The graph explains what happened in the past, and what is already known about future US debt obligations. It doesn't "say what is going to happen." It requires a human interpreter to "say what is going to happen."

And if that happens, gold will crater, or possibly stabilise at about 800.

And if it doesn't, it won't.

The graph does not "say" what you claim it does. You are assuming that the political situation and wider economic system is the same now as it was in the early 1980s. This is quite obviously not the case.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 14 Jun 2011, 11:40

biffvernon wrote:Gold is a great hedge against a nation's inflation. When the global economy goes south for the last time gold will lead the rush.

For as long as there has been civilisation, gold has been valued.