If it gets to 6,000 again I am going to move my pension funds into either a Renewables Fund or something with less risk....all suggestions welcome.
Black Monday?
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Totally_Baffled
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Thanks Tristan, see what you can dig up, it would interesting!tristan wrote:Not sure I know an awful lot about economics but certainly you have asked the million dollar question. (aside from the other trillion dollar question). I'd like to look into it further but an exam tomorrow looms. If you can wait till next week it would be fun do some research as I don't really know the answer, and I suspect nor does anyone.Totally_Baffled wrote:Hi Tristan
You seem to know a thing or two about economics, I have a question.
Peak oil aside, how would the "imbalances" of the world economy corrected even if we had cheap energy for, say , another 100 years?
What I mean is, all manafacturing seems to be slowly (but surely) relocating to south east asia, China and India.
Now this makes sense since it will always be cheaper to produce in that part of the world and then export to the rest of the world.
But what I dont inderstand is that these countries are relying on the demand of consumers in the west (for the most part the US, UK and others).
What happens when most/all production of everything (even services?) are in these countries? How are the consuming nations affording to buy these products? If they cannot afford them , then who is buying these products?
Any ideas?
The reason I ask is , that this seems to be one of the primary sources of our ecomonic woes at the moment, ie high interest rates are on the way to help fund ours (and the US) debt positions. (current account and trade deficit)
TB
Peak oil? ahhh smeg.....
Peak oil? ahhh smeg.....
Maybe something to do with metals? They're a scarce resource, becoming scarcer and more difficult to get at. Although demand is sure to drop if the economy slows, there will probably be a largish demand for metal for, say, wind turbines, plus other things that used to be metal but that rigid plastics have taken over from, also tools etc. Just a whimsical theory so don't go out and do it - but it's a potential that could be looked into. Not sure what effect the huge pile of scrap aeroplanes and cars would have on long-term metal prices.
Also, agricultural land. That is what I would buy if I had the money. Many UK farmers are currently on the bread-line and I'm sure I read somewhere that some were earning about 13k a year. Farmland is fairly cheap at the moment if it doesn't have development potential, and once it becomes uneconomical to transport food 2000 miles around the world then surely there will be a massive increase in demand for homegrown foods. Also, until this occurs, there are things like bio-mass & bio-fuels which may help increase farming incomes in the meantime, but which are currently at early stages of commercial development and so haven't greatly affected land prices. However - if there was a property crash, then I don't know how that would affect the price of agricultural land, if at all??
The thing to bear in mind is that land and gold are assets that the government MAY decide are better off in its holdings. Yeah - re gold they won't go digging up everyone's gardens, but I'm sure they could arrange exhorbitant taxes or make it's use illegal in certain circumstances so that all the gold buried around the country becomes worthless in private ownership. Also, I think there is already an act in place that allows them to turf people off their land if a state of emergency is declared.
It's very difficult to guess at what investments would be most appropriate because everything seems to be a bubble at present - there's so much liquidity. This, coupled with the fact that nobody can predict what will happen (will someone make an energy breakthrough tomorrow?) makes planning on how to hold your wealth extremely difficult. (I'm still working on my debts at this stage - almost there )
Also, agricultural land. That is what I would buy if I had the money. Many UK farmers are currently on the bread-line and I'm sure I read somewhere that some were earning about 13k a year. Farmland is fairly cheap at the moment if it doesn't have development potential, and once it becomes uneconomical to transport food 2000 miles around the world then surely there will be a massive increase in demand for homegrown foods. Also, until this occurs, there are things like bio-mass & bio-fuels which may help increase farming incomes in the meantime, but which are currently at early stages of commercial development and so haven't greatly affected land prices. However - if there was a property crash, then I don't know how that would affect the price of agricultural land, if at all??
The thing to bear in mind is that land and gold are assets that the government MAY decide are better off in its holdings. Yeah - re gold they won't go digging up everyone's gardens, but I'm sure they could arrange exhorbitant taxes or make it's use illegal in certain circumstances so that all the gold buried around the country becomes worthless in private ownership. Also, I think there is already an act in place that allows them to turf people off their land if a state of emergency is declared.
It's very difficult to guess at what investments would be most appropriate because everything seems to be a bubble at present - there's so much liquidity. This, coupled with the fact that nobody can predict what will happen (will someone make an energy breakthrough tomorrow?) makes planning on how to hold your wealth extremely difficult. (I'm still working on my debts at this stage - almost there
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mikepepler
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I'm clear of debt, and have some modest savings - but nothing I'd really consider "wealth" to keep hold of. The main reason is I'm spending money on things that can't be taken away from you - skills! I'm hoping that the money I've invested in doing my MSc will give me some useful skills in renewables going forward, and once it's out of the way I can see myself spending more money on learning things. I reckon in the future the more you know how to do, the more secure you will be, so it's a good "investment".
Also, isn't part of what got us into this state everyone trying to get rich and have a better standard of living? And what good would wealth be if there's not a lot available to buy? And what about the people who didn't keep their financial wealth, and are looking jealously at what you're buying with the proceeds of investment?
Sorry about the rant!
It's just that peakniks worrying about their stock market investments feels a bit like people on the Titanic (that is, the ones who *do* know it's going to sink) worrying if they can fit all their jewelery into the lifeboat with them.
Also, isn't part of what got us into this state everyone trying to get rich and have a better standard of living? And what good would wealth be if there's not a lot available to buy? And what about the people who didn't keep their financial wealth, and are looking jealously at what you're buying with the proceeds of investment?
Sorry about the rant!
It's just that peakniks worrying about their stock market investments feels a bit like people on the Titanic (that is, the ones who *do* know it's going to sink) worrying if they can fit all their jewelery into the lifeboat with them. Hmmm.
No-one is criticising you for your 'training based approach' to facing the peak. Its without doubt important to arm yourself with a whole variety of skills. But I find your rant against those who are attempting to put their financial affairs in order rather odd. You yourself have already gone some way in this direction by becoming debt free (so thats allright then). However according to your analysis those with other assets who are thinking to preserve/maximise them are now akin to some form of capitalist low life on the deck of the Titanic.
There is a substantial period of time now available to peaknicks to adjust and adapt to forthcoming events IMO (contrary to some views I doubt very much things are going to go pop overnight) - what do you suggest people with assets accrued in all probability by their hard work over many years do now? Throw up their arms and say 'sh*t give it all away before it gets nicked? Yeah great.
How about acknowledging that perhaps they can use the interim to re-align these assets, eventually ending up in useful things such as agricultural land?
I find some of the analysis of personal economic decision making on here infantile - yet its one of the areas in which a website such as this ought to be most useful.
No-one is criticising you for your 'training based approach' to facing the peak. Its without doubt important to arm yourself with a whole variety of skills. But I find your rant against those who are attempting to put their financial affairs in order rather odd. You yourself have already gone some way in this direction by becoming debt free (so thats allright then). However according to your analysis those with other assets who are thinking to preserve/maximise them are now akin to some form of capitalist low life on the deck of the Titanic.
There is a substantial period of time now available to peaknicks to adjust and adapt to forthcoming events IMO (contrary to some views I doubt very much things are going to go pop overnight) - what do you suggest people with assets accrued in all probability by their hard work over many years do now? Throw up their arms and say 'sh*t give it all away before it gets nicked? Yeah great.
How about acknowledging that perhaps they can use the interim to re-align these assets, eventually ending up in useful things such as agricultural land?
I find some of the analysis of personal economic decision making on here infantile - yet its one of the areas in which a website such as this ought to be most useful.
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mikepepler
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Yes, I'd be keen on an idea like that - putting the money into buying land, or moving house to a place you would want to live once the world has changed a bit. I'm not saying people should throw it all away - but that they shouldn't get too attached to it, as there's always a risk it will all be lost anyway. I think it's the investing in financial products rather than in things like skills, land, sustainable buildings, etc. that I find odd, especially given what most of us think will happen to the economy in the not-too-distant future.andyh wrote: There is a substantial period of time now available to peaknicks to adjust and adapt to forthcoming events IMO (contrary to some views I doubt very much things are going to go pop overnight) - what do you suggest people with assets accrued in all probability by their hard work over many years do now? Throw up their arms and say 'sh*t give it all away before it gets nicked? Yeah great.
How about acknowledging that perhaps they can use the interim to re-align these assets, eventually ending up in useful things such as agricultural land?
But yes, it was a bit of a rant, it's just that the imbalances between rich and poor in society is something I feel quite strongly about, and if this country is going to make it through Peak Oil in one piece, it won't be because a handful of people figured out how to make "safe" investments.
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biffvernon
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I have been paying into a pension for 24 years - with three different companies - those payments have gone into two pension providers, one being Standard Life. All pensions are invested in the stock market in some shape or form.
I have no stocks or shares and was never attracted to buy them, but I did believe in saving via a pension for the future. This of course has all gone pear-shaped since I discovered PO. I would be very upset to see 24 years of contributions going down the pan. I want to rescue it as much as I can before the big market crashes occur. Other than my house which as a mortgage on 50% of its current value, I have no other saving or investments of any real worth.
I am certainly not going to get rich but do want the best standard of living I can afford - who doesnt?? In the future we will all have completely different standards of living - eventually we will consider them normal, but for a good while (a decade or two) people will be very unhappy and that is why I believe there will be so much turmoil.
I hope that rant didn't apply to me.
I have no stocks or shares and was never attracted to buy them, but I did believe in saving via a pension for the future. This of course has all gone pear-shaped since I discovered PO. I would be very upset to see 24 years of contributions going down the pan. I want to rescue it as much as I can before the big market crashes occur. Other than my house which as a mortgage on 50% of its current value, I have no other saving or investments of any real worth.
I am certainly not going to get rich but do want the best standard of living I can afford - who doesnt?? In the future we will all have completely different standards of living - eventually we will consider them normal, but for a good while (a decade or two) people will be very unhappy and that is why I believe there will be so much turmoil.
I hope that rant didn't apply to me.
Real money is gold and silver
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mikepepler
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I can see that after that many years of payments it must be pretty gutting to find out about Peak Oil, and realise what it might do to the pension fund. Maybe you can cash it in soon to clear your mortgage? I assume you've stopped paying into it now?snow hope wrote:I have been paying into a pension for 24 years - with three different companies - those payments have gone into two pension providers, one being Standard Life. All pensions are invested in the stock market in some shape or form.
I have no stocks or shares and was never attracted to buy them, but I did believe in saving via a pension for the future. This of course has all gone pear-shaped since I discovered PO. I would be very upset to see 24 years of contributions going down the pan. I want to rescue it as much as I can before the big market crashes occur. Other than my house which as a mortgage on 50% of its current value, I have no other saving or investments of any real worth.
I didn't mean my rant to apply to anyone in particular, so apologies for any offence caused to anyone. It was more just the general idea of investing to try and "grow" wealth that got me all worked up, as it's chasing growth that got us into the situation we're in.snow hope wrote:I hope that rant didn't apply to me.
I too looked at changing my very modest, and now stagnant, pension fund into something renewables-based and got as far as selecting the Standard Life Ethical Fund (http://uk.standardlife.com/content/poli ... rices.html).snow hope wrote: If it gets to 6,000 again I am going to move my pension funds into either a Renewables Fund or something with less risk....all suggestions welcome.
However, by the time I got through all the paperwork and realised that there was an expectation that I should continue to contribute to this Titanic disaster fund - I went off the whole idea. I have just about reconciled myself to the fact that this money is lost, especially after the government backtracking regarding the A-day breaks - I see no way of retrieving it.
I had been quite cynical about pensions before I even knew anything of Peak Oil. The amount of people I know who have either been completely screwed, or ripped off somehow by their pension scheme is staggering. In fact I would struggle to think of anyone I know who has actually benefited from having some sort of private pension scheme.
Imho, the tax breaks offered with pensions do not offset the unknown risks, and loss of control that comes with putting your wealth into a pension scheme.
With peak oil, all lingering doubts have been extinguished, hyperinflation will send stock markets and pension values into paroxysm. Lots of people will lose a lot of money this way. It is very sad situation.
At some point chickens will come home to roost, and the markets will realise that the billions & trillions of electronic funny money sloshing around the world is not actually based on anything real.
Whether we like it or not. Our financial means largely dictates the choices that will be available to us in the future. So I wouldn't criticise anyone looking to protect their wealth, I would commend them for it.
Imho, the tax breaks offered with pensions do not offset the unknown risks, and loss of control that comes with putting your wealth into a pension scheme.
With peak oil, all lingering doubts have been extinguished, hyperinflation will send stock markets and pension values into paroxysm. Lots of people will lose a lot of money this way. It is very sad situation.
At some point chickens will come home to roost, and the markets will realise that the billions & trillions of electronic funny money sloshing around the world is not actually based on anything real.
Whether we like it or not. Our financial means largely dictates the choices that will be available to us in the future. So I wouldn't criticise anyone looking to protect their wealth, I would commend them for it.
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It strikes me that if you are a regular here then there's probably a good chance that you a bit anti the current financial systems or happy to anticipate them disappearing into a hole ready for something hopefully better.
In either case the aim has to be to step out of things as much as you can, certainly for anything 'mission-critical' (feeding / housing the family etc). To me that means a decent house with some land. If I've got anything left over to play with I might consider leaving some in the current world but I'll work on the basis that at some point it might become worthless unless I get lucky.
If I had anything useful in a pension I would do my absolute best to get it into something real if I could.
In either case the aim has to be to step out of things as much as you can, certainly for anything 'mission-critical' (feeding / housing the family etc). To me that means a decent house with some land. If I've got anything left over to play with I might consider leaving some in the current world but I'll work on the basis that at some point it might become worthless unless I get lucky.
If I had anything useful in a pension I would do my absolute best to get it into something real if I could.
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Totally_Baffled
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Totally_Baffled
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