Taking on a mortgage going forward...

[Lord Beria3]

So to summarise there are two schools of thought here...

1) Avoid debt because its dangerious and could make you some kind of debt slave in a post-capitalist neo-feudal age where our previous debts make us labour slaves for our banker-lords. if you take on a mortgage, make sure you have a large deposit, a secure career and pay it off as soon as possible!

2) Take on as much debt as possible because once the crash happens you can de facto become owners of a nice property once the banks stop kicking people out of their homes.

[postie]

So to summarise there are two schools of thought here...

1) Avoid debt because its dangerious and could make you some kind of debt slave in a post-capitalist neo-feudal age where our previous debts make us labour slaves for our banker-lords. if you take on a mortgage, make sure you have a large deposit, a secure career and pay it off as soon as possible!

2) Take on as much debt as possible because once the crash happens you can de facto become owners of a nice property once the banks stop kicking people out of their homes.

Or.. 3.. if there is a big die-off, there'll be plenty of decent houses with land to move into, and the first 2 points of the above, renting or mortgages will be pretty much pointless as there'll be a ready supply, at least for a while of places to live.

There has been a situation like this in the past. After the Black Death, agricultural workers improved both their living quarters AND their incomes as they filled the void left by those who'd died of plague. The ruling classes, the landlords, had to accept for a period after the plague, lower incomes and lifestyle for themselves while paying for the peasants to have an increase in lifestyle and income...
This was a generalised situation, some landlords used feudal powers to enforce a pre-plague situation in regards to their agricultural workers. But on the whole, there was a temporary "world turned upside down" scenario.
Now, with a more educated, less feudal society, it'd be interesting to see how it'd pan out...

[kenneal - lagger]

If the percentage die-off was significant the result would be a return to pre-industrialisation as the whole web of our civilisation would disintegrate. Fuel supply would cease, so electricity would go, so manufacture would go, so supermarket food supply would go. We would be back to growing our own and relying on tools and weapons that the local blacksmith and a few craftsmen could produce.

[Catweazle]

If the percentage die-off was significant the result would be a return to pre-industrialisation as the whole web of our civilisation would disintegrate. Fuel supply would cease, so electricity would go, so manufacture would go, so supermarket food supply would go. We would be back to growing our own and relying on tools and weapons that the local blacksmith and a few craftsmen could produce.

I think we are heading for a future where things are repaired or made more locally, in fact I've based my plans on the fact that repair skills will be in demand and bought the equipment to do it surprisingly cheaply from industrial auction sites.

It everything turns out to be OK I guess I can console myself by making model steam trains instead

[biffvernon]

If the percentage die-off was significant the result would be a return to pre-industrialisation

No, it would be a progression to post-industrialisation.

There is a growing body of literature speculating about the outcome but 'return' is not the likely direction.

[MrG]

Interesting thread. I've been watching peoples views with interest because I've been pondering this one myself.

Pre awarness of PO my view had been basically that of UE (without the moral overtones) that is:

At the moment I can't practically afford to buy a house i.e. without overstretching myself / pushing myself and pushing myself until I get some horrible 50K a year job as a bullshit consultant, so why worry about it. Houses are overpriced, that is unsustainable, at some point the price will go through the floor and then I'll buy a house... or maybe I won't. I never saw property ownership as the be all and end all. Yeah it basically makes sense, but only if the house is worth having (on the ground not a flat, chimney, garden all of that) and you can actually afford it.. and the fact is that currently most people can't.

Add in to that the proviso that I'd have been doing it with a Partner so THAT has to be solid.. trust me I nearly did it once and now I'm very glad I didn't (coz the relationship went completely tits up)

Post PO awarness my view gradually became pretty much that which Ken is putting foward. The same probably applies to taking out a loan (with low repayments) to buy land, especially if we expect high inflation. I started thinking I should get a mortgage on a decent house with land in actual fact as a peak oil prep. I actually thought I'd move out of my rented house and kind of generally float about the place / stay in my old mans unused council flat (he actually lives with his mrs) in order to save a deposit. Well actually that wasn't the reason, its a long story but once I was doing it anyway it seemed like a halfway decent plan.

The counter argument to that "everything will collapse and no bank will be there to ask for the money" idea is what a couple of people here have pointed out - economic collapse needs to be complete and sudden for that to work.

I think a lot of people around here (myself included) are becoming increasingly of the opinion that we're just in store for more of the same. Stagnation of the economy, everyone getting stretched more and more in every direction but all happening relatively gradually.

EVEN SO... we are all, I would say, agreed that there is going to come a point where most people aren't working in the mainstream economy because the mainstream economy is broke. Ken is still I think correct to say"What are we going to do with all of these people?"

Even if there is still a bank around to collect the money it doesn't really matter if practically noone has any money to give! At the moment if you don't pay your rent / mortgage you'll get turfed out because there will be someone else who WILL be willing and able to pay it instead. Or you don't get turfed out coz housing benefit will pay it. At the moment more people have jobs than don't have jobs. As it starts to go the other way the situation will obviously change. So what happens?

Most people will lose their jobs and will not be able to pay their mortgage or their rent! If we are to chuck all those nasty, greedy people who can't pay their mortgage out of their homes, are we going to do the same with those poor unfortunates who can't pay their rent

Ex f***ing zactly!!

So in conclusion - It doesn't make any bloody difference.

Mortgage IS rent. You rent from the bank with the BAU proviso that if you rent the place off them for a generation then once you've given them about double the ticket price they'll let you have it in a BAU future.

If you don't believe that there will be a BAU future in 30 years time then does it actually make any difference at all?

Of course that applies to a young person like myself or (I assume) beria taking on a mortgage now rather than an older person trying to squirrel away as quick as possible to pay an existing one off.. that of course makes loads of sense.

[MrG]

Or.. 3.. if there is a big die-off, there'll be plenty of decent houses with land to move into, and the first 2 points of the above, renting or mortgages will be pretty much pointless as there'll be a ready supply, at least for a while of places to live

And this is another thing - There already are.

Nothing to do with die off. Its just the economic contraction which is already beggining... and a lot of what Silas was talking about as well.

I think with a view to the future we need to be thinking less in ther BAU economic terms which have always predicated house ownership / rental in the past but more simply in the terms postie and silas are talking of..

How many houses are there?

How many people are there?

Its already starting. Walking around I'm noticing so many empty buildings. And another thing I'm noticing... the more afluent the area and the BIGGER the buildings the more of them are empty. BAU market price correlates positively with probability of being empty.

I was starting to think I should start squatting. Now I've never liked the squatting thing because someone has to stay in the house all the time and that just isn't me. Its like self imprisonment. This time of year I'm outside until it gets dark by choice.

This on the other hand seems like a winner

http://uk.cameloteurope.com/

legalised squatting - well squatting IS legal actually (for now) so I should say consentual squatting. Payng a low rent to be a 'property guardian' in actual fact to keep the squatters out.. it's something Dimitri Orlov proposes and oh looky looky its starting to pick up.

[RenewableCandy]

There are now more pensioners (as in, over 65s) than people under 16. A huge proportion of the latter live aone. As the economy dives, these people aren't going to get any healthier or live any longer. Many will manage to improve their lot by selling-up and pooling cash and care with the younger generation of their own family or friends.

All this will make for a large number of more-or-less modestly-sized, spare houses.

[JohnB]

There are now more pensioners (as in, over 65s) than people under 16. A huge proportion of the latter live aone. As the economy dives, these people aren't going to get any healthier or live any longer. Many will manage to improve their lot by selling-up and pooling cash and care with the younger generation of their own family or friends.

All this will make for a large number of more-or-less modestly-sized, spare houses.

When my Mum went into a residential home, it had the feel of a place where half a dozen elderly people had pooled their resources, bought a big house together, and used the rest of their money and pensions to pay someone to look after them. It was actually a family owned business, but could well be done the way I've suggested. Each one would create an effective use for one big house, free up a number of other houses for younger people, and provide a few jobs. As older people have usually paid off their mortgages, a general fall in house prices might accompany this process without too much pain.

[kenneal - lagger]

The regulations involved in care homes are horrendous, John, and planning permission might be necessary if too many people moved in to form a "House in Multiple Occupation". The regulatory problems could make it completely untenable. It could be worth investigating if you were in that situation.

I did the planning and design work about 20 year ago for a couple in Hampshire to convert their 16th century coaching inn into a home. They ran the home, very successfully, for many years with numerous changes of layout due to regulation changes but gave up in the end and sold out to a big national chain. All the changes and hassle just got too much in the end. Council run homes don't seem to get the same scrutiny that the evil profit makers do although private homes are usually more popular.

[JohnB]

The regulations involved in care homes are horrendous, John, and planning permission might be necessary if too many people moved in to form a "House in Multiple Occupation". The regulatory problems could make it completely untenable. It could be worth investigating if you were in that situation.

I know, but if a few people decide to house share, and they happen to need to pay someone for some help, would it actually be a care home? You can have up to four (I think) owners of a house registered as tenants in common, plus maybe a couple of lodgers, so I'm not sure it would qualify as an HMO. It's a while since I read up on the rules, and local authorities can make up their own rules that override the national ones.

[emordnilap]

I'm wondering about the title of this thread...

Can you have anything other than a mortgage.. going forward?

This should really be in the 'End of the World' thread but who cares? He makes a welcome reference to the use of that idiotic phrase.

http://www.rte.ie/podcasts/2011/pc/pod- ... 264528.mp3

...oh, and it's all really quite drily humorous.

[JohnB]

This should really be in the 'End of the World' thread but who cares? He makes a welcome reference to the use of that idiotic phrase.

http://www.rte.ie/podcasts/2011/pc/pod- ... 264528.mp3

...oh, and it's all really quite drily humorous.

6 months of lust sound good .

[MrG]

This should really be in the 'End of the World' thread but who cares? He makes a welcome reference to the use of that idiotic phrase.

http://www.rte.ie/podcasts/2011/pc/pod- ... 264528.mp3

...oh, and it's all really quite drily humorous.

6 months of lust sound good .

Didn't do me any good not at all

[Lord Beria3]

Quite right old chap.