Hello and a question

[Juliaw]

Hi,

I'm new to the forum and have been very interestedly reading your posts.
I have a question if that is ok?
I will try to be as succinct as possible.
I am worried that things are going to get very hard, really quite soon. Reading about what is happening in the middle east and about the global food shortages that look very likely to drive prices up even higher next year, it is all begining ot feel very real to me.

Can I ask what people in the know think is going to happen next? And how soon before it gets really hard to live as we are??

My husband and I live in a small three bed semi with a small garden, we have a baby and a toddler. We already struggle each month to pay the mortgage, bills, and pay for basics like food and fuel. I am really concerned that we need to make a big change and soon and if we don't we could be looking at huge food/fuel bills and a much higher mortgage within the next year and a life that we can no longer afford.
But here's the thing, i'm not sure what to do about it and I worry that i am making a mountain out of a mole hill and worrying too much about something that will not happen or will happen much slower and less dramatically than I fear.

Sorry if this is a bit of a garbled post.
Any thoughts/advice appreciated!!

Thank you,
Julia

[Silas]

Big questions, I don't have a Crystal ball, all the evidence points at some very difficult times ahead, but we have a very big and complicated system, the timing for (of) all the chickens coming home to roost is anyone's guess. But on the other hand life was never given with any guarantee, we will all just have to muddle through and learn to understand what real life and true wealth is. Here are a few links that will hopefully be of interest and helpful.

Best wishes.


http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/oilcrunch/

http://www.storyofstuff.com/

http://www.transitionnetwork.org/

http://www.alertme.com/blog/switch-now- ... -3472.html

http://peakoiltaskforce.net/about-2/

http://www.earthlypursuits.com/AllotGui ... tGuide.htm

http://www.agreenandsimplelife.com/tag/home/

[featherstick]

Hi Julia

...and breathe....

You are already taking steps by facing into a major crisis. The single biggest thing you can do now is to start getting used to less - less money, space, transport, things, consumption, entertainment, stimulation.

Practically (and I have no idea of your situation so these are just off the top of my head) that might mean:
Digging up the garden to grow vegetables and keep chickens; selling the 3 bed and buying a 2 bedroom house; or, letting a room out to a lodger; getting rid of the car and cycling; or, learning how to do your own spannering on the car; learning how to cook food from fresh ingredients instead of buying takeaways and ready meals; learning how to mend, make, and adapt clothes; staying at home instead of going abroad for hols, and so on.

This is difficult but most people have some fat they can trim from their budget and put to better use. My wife for instance "forgets" the packed lunch that I make for her, and prefers to buy something at work every day - there's GBP15-20 a week she could be saving - nearly GBP1000 a year.

Reducing debt and outgoings are the most important changes you can make.

Cheers

FS

[emordnilap]

Perhaps a moderator could combine the two threads Juliaw started, seeing as they're the same topic (and delete this post at the same time)?

[Juliaw]

Hi,

Thank you for your replies.

My husband is also worried, in fact he has been a member of this forum for a long time.

Having read your replies I think I need to be a bit more specific about the dilema that has driven me to post...

The three bed semi that we own has a very small garden which is given over to a small amount of lawn and patio for my little boys to play on and a dog area for our two dogs. We have just moved from a larger house with a very large garden where we used to grow quite a lot of veg...this now feels like a big mistake. Our new house is small but in a very desirable location and although we only bought it at the end of last year we have done a lot of work to it so think that if we were to turn around and try to sell it now, even bearing in mind the current market, we would make a bit of a profit.

We have seen a small holding (with a small two bed house, which is in need of work and modernisation, and two acres of land) coming up for sale near us. The guide price is about the top of our budget but it might be just about doable. It is in a great location, further out in the country and also closer to my parents. It is not much further from my husbands work than we are here. It is in an area which we thought we would never be able to afford land in...

But, we have only just moved into this house! We moved because I don't drive and wanted to be in an area where I could walk to the shops, schools, beaches, etc. From that point of view it is great and it is a lovely place to live, near great schools and even a good pub! (The small holding is in a small community but would be much more isolated with much fewer local amenities and I would probably have to look at learning to drive again.)

I am now just feeling very torn and worried that we have moved to the wrong place.

I should also mention that the recent move has meant that our council tax and home insurance have gone up quite a lot as well as our mortgage and we are really feeling the effects of this and I am worried about how we will cope with the rising cost of, well, everything and a mortgage hike which is bound to come in the near future.

I know our friends and family would think we were nuts to try and sell this house and move again so soon, but I also genuinely worry that we would be stupid not to try and buy this house with land which is in an area where this sort of thing is normally way out of our price range.


So, opinions please? What do you think?

Thanks!
ps - I have booked a viewing for this Saturday...

[emordnilap]

It would be wise to move again if you were serious about growing your own food; long term, you'd probably regret not moving - well, I know I would from your description of circumstances, if there's no chance of acquiring more growing space round this new house.

Two acres! That's a lot of land to grow on and you can still have a lawn - and temporarily rent out spaces to others to grow food on.

[Cabrone]

Can I ask what people in the know think is going to happen next? And how soon before it gets really hard to live as we are??

I don't think we'll ever get back to what we had prior to 2008 as increased oil prices will put a permanent lid on economic growth.

To be honest that's a good thing IMO as we were living well beyond our means both economically and physically.

My future view is we'll just contract on a year by year basis until we can get to the point where our energy consumption = our ability to generate the stuff. In other words until we get off our (rapidly diminishing) hydrocarbon fix.

We are all going to have to slow down and live more efficient\self reliant lives.

I started adjusting around 5 years ago and since then I've taken up growing my own food, using a bike instead of a car, rarely flying, adding extra insulation to my house and generally slowing down a lot.

You'd be amazed how much you can save if you start to make changes, step by step.

It's also quite liberating when you realise that you can make real changes that reduce your reliance on the system and save you a packet.

It's not all doom and gloom (despite certain posters on here seemingly fixated on the end of the world), infact it's made me a happier person.

All the best.

[featherstick]

It's the smallholding. I know how you feel, but honestly, it's the smallholding.

[emordnilap]

I started adjusting around 5 years ago and since then I've taken up growing my own food, using a bike instead of a car, rarely flying, adding extra insulation to my house and generally slowing down a lot.

You'd be amazed how much you can save if you start to make changes, step by step.

It's also quite liberating when you realise that you can make real changes that reduce your reliance on the system and save you a packet.

It's not all doom and gloom (despite certain posters on here seemingly fixated on the end of the world), infact it's made me a happier person.

All the best.

Nicely put. I'm travelling the same track as you. A little slower, perhaps - as I started about 15 years ago and I refuse to knowingly support the aircraft industry - but otherwise much the same.

My efforts and earnings have mostly gone on energy capture - be that growing things or solar heating - or insulation, plus reduction in externally-supplied needs. They will continue to do so and so we need less money, we get more happiness and satisfaction, are very healthy and have a great social life.

Some might find it a boring and uneventful life without the 50 inch tv, holidays abroad and multiple mobile phones but believe me, it's the opposite.

[postie]

Hi,
I am worried that things are going to get very hard, really quite soon.... it is all begining ot feel very real to me.

Can I ask what people in the know think is going to happen next? And how soon before it gets really hard to live as we are??

Sorry, can't help with the house thing as that's something you need to decide yourselves based on what you think and feel...

As for the bit quoted above. Yes, it can be quite worrying, especially if you have nippers as you wonder what kind of world they're going to be growing up in. Even at the long end estimate of Peak Oil your nippers will still be young enough to not grow up in a world we have known. (estimate of the long end being about 20 years / 2030 )

But, it's not all doom and gloom. Having an awareness that we're either in the early stages of oil peaking, or about to enter oil peaking.. or even at the point just before, gives you way more of a head start than many who'll only know what peak oil is when it's way too late. (with the exception of our great mate on here RGR, of course)

There are loads of possible scenarios that can play out.. and it'll probably be unlike anything anyone has imagined. From what I've read, the likelihood, is that it'll either be a slow crash or a fast crash. Some say one is better than the other... if it's going to happen.

Whatever it is, preparation is vital, but prepare intelligently. If you're going to lay in a store of foods and suchlike, then even if Peak Oil is 20 years away, all you're doing is offsetting future food costs and being prepared for at least something like losing a job, or getting snowed in. Learning new skills wont be a waste of time if you can use those skills to improve your life in the meantime.. and especially after a crash. Growing your own stuff.. well, that's only healthy and good for your nippers and you.
So it isn't all gloom.

Your last question quoted above.. is a bit of a "how long is a piece of string?" But, I'd say at some point in the next 5 years. Which is a way too open estimate to be of much use, as "sometime in the next 5 years" could include next week. AND.. I'm only basing that on a gut feeling that's kinda backed up by reading a lot of info, but haphazardly and without reading the dull stuff. I do however feel like I don't have enough time to prepare.. but that'd probably be true if it was 10 years.

Oh.. and the advice given by someone above.. get chickens... is brilliant. You have a cheap source of protein, meat if needed and high grade fertilizer, you could also barter for things you need as eggs may well be scarce. Bees might be a good idea too if you do go for the 2 acre small holding.

And welcome to PS..